Damn

*EDIT - Congrats to Chad for winning the 26k AGAIN. I think I just need to start jamming with unsuited disconnectors more often. :)

-----------------

Cashed in the fifty-fifty. I'm a tool though. After typing it all up, I'm not sure I'm a complete donkey. Maybe I've just convinced myself otherwise. This post is a mess, but it's late and I'm not going to tidy it up.

AJo, I limp in from the SB with the button limping before me. K-high flop, I bet, button raises, I fold.

Two hands later, AJh in the cutoff. No action before me, I raise to 4x the BB. SB raises to put me almost all-in (less 820 chips).

I start to think.

M was 6, but after my bet it's more like 4.4, and the SB is a fairly big stack (~46k in chips). He's either been lucky or aggressive, but I just got moved to this table and haven't seen enough to know. Why that raise? I don't think it was designed to get me to call or raise all-in, but to make a decision. I can't put him on a premium pair here with that bet after the bubble. I'm sure it's to scare me out. AK? AQ? Maybe. More likely a complete blind-protecting bluff or an overplayed medium pocket pair.

And then, with an M of 5, people dropping like flies post-bubble, pot odds of 1.76:1 I think, I call my coin flip (1.17:1 ... or 46%) and he flips over 77... so not a complete bluff. 33QKK on the board sends me home 142nd for $80 and change.

Now, I had to take the possibility of him being full of it into account here. In my mind that skews the odds more in my favour. I'm pretty sure at worst I'm in a coin flip, and maybe even facing a weaker suited ace. Premium hands just aren't a consideration as far as I'm concerned. Plus, I'm playing to win, not walk out with $80. The next few levels are small increases, and if I win here, I'm over 20k in chips and can steal, gamble and cruise for a few levels.

In the end, it was that chance to double-up that made my decision for me.

So sooooted AJ being a cruddy hand aside (although I think my 4x BB raise in the cutoff is the right move 100% of the time), am I thinking correctly here?

- I've put him on either a medium pair, a weak ace, or a stone cold bluff for my chips
- M is < 5 if I fold, but I'll be in the hijack at a full table
- We've lost 12 players since the bubble burst about 2 minutes earlier
- I'm in the cash for $80. Next levels are $86, $97, and $113. So I have to go 2 more levels to see a significant percentage jump, and that means outlasting around 42 more people. I don't care about $17 more, I want to go deep.
- This guy is either lucky or good. If he's lucky, then he could have anything - paint, a weak suited ace, hell, even a suited king is a possibility. If he's good, then he doesn't have a premium hand here and wants to scare me off or isolate with AK, especially since he knows I can fold from 2 hands earlier. So either way, I'm 95% sure I'm in a coinflip or better with that bet.
- Pot odds are 1.76:1 (I think) vs my coin-flip (at worst)
- If I double-up here, I'm solid for a while

*EDIT: One thing I didn't think of was his stack size BEFORE my initial raise. I think if I had I would have either pushed or tried to get in cheap and folded to a re-raise. This might have been my biggest mistake.

Do you go all-in or fold? Hell, is my math even right?

Full Tilt Poker Game #2762964492: The Fifty-Fifty (20654789), Table 5 - 300/600 Ante 75 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:40:43 ET - 2007/06/25
Seat 1: lawdork1980 (48,386)
Seat 2: azbigpot (21,255)
Seat 3: peterthekiller (7,172)
Seat 4: Astin (9,370)
Seat 5: RobM77 (13,915)
Seat 6: cruise122 (46,617)
Seat 7: Mkush (11,892)
Seat 8: rancher7979 (3,565)
Seat 9: winning_12 (20,437)
[everyone antes]
cruise122 posts the small blind of 300
Mkush posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Astin [Ah Jh]
[folds to me]
Astin raises to 2,400
RobM77 folds
cruise122 raises to 8,475
Mkush has 15 seconds left to act
Mkush folds
Astin has 15 seconds left to act
Astin raises to 9,295, and is all in
cruise122 calls 820
Astin shows [Ah Jh]
cruise122 shows [7d 7s]
*** FLOP *** [3d 3h Qc]
*** TURN *** [3d 3h Qc] [Kc]
*** RIVER *** [3d 3h Qc Kc] [Ks]
Astin shows two pair, Kings and Threes
cruise122 shows two pair, Kings and Sevens
cruise122 wins the pot (19,865) with two pair, Kings and Sevens