WSOP

Hoyazo asked the question that's likely been on many minds since a couple weeks ago. What are the WSOP numbers going to look like?

I think his 3000 number is on the low side for the main event. I'd see in the 4000-5000 range as likely, but with nothing to actually back that up other than gut feelings.

What is really going to suffer is the other 49,000 (give or take 3 orders of magnitude) events. All those $2000 packages and events that the low-limit grinders can work towards. Sure, the broke-dick donkey events will still see plenty of walk-up business, but non-NLHE events will see their numbers drop even more I'd think. Percentage-wise of course.

After all, they online sites will still be running tournaments for WSOP packages, there just won't be as many, and the winners will all be from from outside US borders. I might even look at taking a few longshots, since the fields should be considerably smaller.

I fully expect to see Harrah's running all kinds of cheap satellites at all of their casinos. They'll have to do whatever they can to keep the numbers from being embarrassing. Backers are going to back off, and pros are going to have to budget a bit better. Those who truly play this game as a job will have already adjusted their bankrolls and accounting to compensate for the lack of online play (if US-based, then it's huge, if outside the Dead Zone, than for the lack of US donkeys). Some will focus on smaller fields, avoiding the $10k coin flip altogether. But the allure of that honey (even 3000 runners = $30,000,000 up for grabs) will still draw flies.

So, with properties scattered around the country, and even sneaking north of the border, Harrah's should be running satellites, super-satellites, and promoting the hell out of them. If they were really smart, they'd try and convince a few smaller casinos to run some too. You telling me Trump wouldn't LOVE to have the chance to say one of his properties is "Home to the 2011 WSOP Champion"?

My only question is... who will be around to cover the Series?

Frustration

Well, that barely felt like a weekend.

Great Indian food on Friday night, and general vegging afterwards. Saturday saw an easy day followed up with a multi-birthday party that will likely cap off the annual early summer birthday rush.

Who throws a party and doesn't put the booze out? It resulted in many of the gifted bottles of wine being opened as options were still in a cabinet in the corner. If you don't want people drinking your booze, four little letters let people prepare appropriately. It's better than being passive-aggressive or lazy, whichever it was.

Sunday was a late wakeup (let's say 3ish, with me finally decided to walk at 4ish). I opted to fire up some poker for the first time in a few days. $25k NLHE guarantee was fun, with me bouncing all over the place for a while before settling down with a well-above average stack. I like my play, but in the end went out with 60 or so to the money. Out in the 200's with 1800 starting. Ah well.

Latest RNG lesson learned? I will win a race as the odds dictate when someone is playing their ace aggressively (ie.- QQ vs AK, and the AK is re-raising, betting the all-under flop, etc.). I will lose a race if I put A-rag-off all-in and they make the crying call pre-flop from the blinds... every time.

Also played the $2 rebuy satellite to the 50-50, won a seat easily, and unregistered for the T$, since I was tired of HE for the day, and another multi-hour flipfest wasn't appealing. Instead, I used half the T$ to buy into the $5k PLO nightly game.

Which I spent most of in the top 10, regularly showing up in 1st on the list, and ALWAYS being at the table of whoever the chipleader was when I wasn't. I really liked my play in the game, but once the bubble burst, I saw my stack disappear rapidly to donks who suddenly didn't care. 2nd pair would hold against my multiple draws. AAxx DS would fall to KQJ5 with 3 of one suit. I quickly found myself on the rail in the 20's or 30's without a decision I regretted. It was mildly frustrating, but on the flipside, I got to go to sleep and realized how mentally tired I was from 3 donk-filled games in a row (yah, there's a reason I don't do crazy multitabling).

Which doesn't mean I won't be back.

A side note, farewell to the The Donkament. I'm sad to see it go, but understand the reason why. Another bloggerment bites the dust.

Not that I don't expect it to show up again on Kat's birthdays though.

GL to the donkeys bloggers in the ME. LJ's in Day 2 if I recall. I think Lucko plays today. Not sure who else is out there playing, but if you go deep, I'm sure we'll all hear about it.

And GL to Pauly, Change100, Otis, F-Train, Al, and everyone else walking through the Amazon rivers of donkey blood in their efforts to provide us weaklings with coverage. The end of the tunnel is near guys... just keep dodging the trains.

Day Off

Well, as much as it has thrown off my internal calendar (still not getting a hang of this Thursday), the mid-week holiday was nice. Up at 2pm to the whines of Dawn Summers lamenting my absence on Twitter so far that day. I decided to crawl out of bed an hour later, do those things one does when one wakes up, and then eat an english muffin whilst firing up some PLO.

$5 rebuy and 4k guarantee. Small cash in the rebuy, and a push-and-pray ouster in the 4k with around 20 to go before the cash. I decided that then was a good time to shower, get dressed, do some laundry, and get started on dinner. Double elk burger with feta, parmesan, and Cape Vessey goat cheese on a sesame bun with some hashbrown-sized taters was quite good, especially when chased by an Innis & Gunn pale.

Then I fired up the 5k PLO and went out halfway through the pack when I flopped the nut straight, only to see the board pair on the turn and an Ace fall on the river. I tracked it the whole way. I checked the flop, bet the turn and got called, and knew without a doubt in my mind that the rivered A gave some guy with AA the boat. That guy checked, and I pushed, because despite knowing I was beat with no information to indicate that, I still figured maybe I was wrong. Silly me, I should know I read online like your cards are up. Sure enough, he snap-called with the rivered boat and I was done.

Then I forgot about The Mookie. See what a holiday does. Totally messes you up.

WSOP ME starts tomorrow. My heart goes out to our bloggers in the field. That donkey reek ain't going to come out of your clothes for months.

GL to the bloggers who are playing the ME. I think the power couple of Lucko and LJ are in there, did Iggy ever decide if he was ponying up for a repeat run? What about the BBT4 TOC winners?

Totally My Fault

I woke up Sunday at the crack of 2pm and decided I wanted to play some poker. I fired up the Poker Stars client to check out the final bit of WSOP ME satellites. I found it odd that the only one left was the $650 25 seat guarantee, expecting a last-ditch cheaper version to attract the masses.

Not having that much in my account, and not being able to add enough to top it off to that, I maxed out my depost and decided to play in the the $215 step 4 satellite to the $650.

10-player SnG, top 3 get seats, 4th gets $50. Not a bad payout structure (although the $50 is pretty useless after dropping $215 to play).

I came in 4th.

I played far too loose to start, doubled up when needed, and fell into the same trap as the other 3 on the payout bubble. I tightened up.

The 4-handed fun started with the chips being fairly evenly spread, except the chipleader who had around 3k more than 2nd place (who was me at around 4k). Nobody was willing to play. I didn't take advantage of this, and I should have. At one point I had the lead after a couple no-contest raises and the chipleader losing half his stack to the shorty. I still didn't push anyone around. I lost half my stack to the shorty when my middle pair didn't hold to his AQ thanks to the river Q. I built back up easily enough, and then stopped again. The one stab I did take saw the leader check-raise me on the flop, forcing me to fold. No way I couldn't believe a check-raise on a table that tight.

In the end, I went down on some standard hand (KK < AJ naturally), and took my measley $50 and went home. I SHOULD have had the $650 seat and the shot at the ME. Instead, I played like a pussy and deserved what I got.

Which pretty much sums up my play over the past few months. Disinterested, non-strategic, and purely ABC. It's a rut I need to break out of if I want to keep enjoying this little game we play.

Bread and Bloggers Representing

As part of my wine club membership, I get a couple recipes sent to me each month that pair well with the wines I get. They usually sound pretty interesting, but I have yet to get around to making any.

Then with the Trius Red came Tomato Bread with Roasted Garlic.

And it turns out I had all the ingredients.

Except the fast rise yeast. Whoops.

No worries, regular dry active yeast in some water and added with the liquids.

So last night I decided to make it. I rehydrated the sundried tomatoes, roasted some garlic, and assembled the ingredients. First time the dough hook's been used on the Cuisinart mixer.

Seems the extra water made it a bit sticky. A couple cups of flour later and it could be handled without sticking to every spot of skin available.

Then I realized it would be 2am before the bread was done, I'd go to sleep, and not even try the stuff until tonight.

So I punched down the dough, put it in the greased pans, and put 'em in the fridge to keep 'em from rising until I could get to them tonight.

This morning? Three pans full of risen bread dough. Whoops.

So... when I get home tonight, I suppose another punch will be required and a third rise. Not exactly according to the recipe, but at the end of the day, bread is bread and the flavours are all extras. In fact, the 16 hours in the fridge will probably impart a more yeasty and delicious bread flavour.

Any breadmakers out there want to warn me off a third rise?

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So first we had CK taking 39th in the $2.5k Omaha/Stud WSOP event for around $4300. Now, we have LJ (too lazy to look up her CR blog, she's got a link at the other one) taking down TENTH out of 770 in the $1.5k HORSE event! Bubbles suck, but $19.2k? Not too shabby. That would almost make me a winning player if I won that.

I really hope that last statement is hyperbole on my part.

The blogger ladies are kicking ass in the WSOP this year.

Guys? You gonna step up? You know, other than Sprstoner, who's been on a sick run for a while now.

Not A Bad Showing

Stolen from Pauly of course:

9:00pm... Darus Suharto Eliminated in 6th Place

Players Remaining: 5
Chipleader: Peter Eastgate 37.5m

Breaking news.... Canuck on Canuck crime. Darhus Suharto was busted by his fellow countryman in 6th place. Suharto was shortstacked and shoved with A-8. Scott Montgomery called with A-Q. Suharto could not come from behind and he went out in 6th. The accountant from Toronto won $2,418,562.

Down to five. Updates chip counts... Peter Eastgate 37.5M, Scott Montgomery 32.7M, Ivan the Russian Demidov 26.3M, Dennis Phillips 20.27M, Ylon Schwartz 19.3M

* * * * *

9:40pm... Scott Montgomery Eliminated in 5th Place

Players Remaining: 4
Chipleader: Ivan the Russian 50m

When action became five-handed, Scott Montgomery made a run. He ran his stack past the 30m mark and took over second place in chips behind Peter Eastgate. Ylon won a small pot to climb out of the cellar, while Dennis Phillips found himself as the shortest stack remaining with 18.7m. However, if he doubled up, he would jump into second place in chips.

Ivan the Russian had been quiet ever since the break ended. He hovered around the same stack while Eastgate and Montgomery started to pull away from the pack.

At this point in the tournament, there is no longer a massive line to get in. There are plenty of seats. Dennis Phillips clones are not as vocal as they once were. It's the fatigue and the fact that he's the short stack.

Just when I thought it was slowing down, Ivan the Russian woke up with a monster and Montgomery got caught speeding. Ivan had the Ks-Kd. Montgomery had Ad-9d. Ivan had around 24m and Montgomery had him covered. The Russians in the crowd began chanting and rooting on Ivan. The flop was 6c-6d-4d and the crowd unleashed a collectibe, "Oooooooooooooo!" Montgomery flopped a nut flush draw. The turn and the river were blanks. Ivan the Russian faded the Ace and the flush draw to win the pot. He doubled up to almost 50 million and regained the chiplead. Montgomery slipped to 7m and was the shortstack.

On the last hand before the break, Scott Montgomery was all in with A-3 against Peter Eastgate's pocket sixes. In true luckbox fashion, Montgomery flopped an Ace and turned and Ace. Eastgate was down to one out since Phillips mentioned that he folded a six. The river was the case six and the entire crowd erupted in dismay and disbelief when Eastgate spiked his one outer. Eastgate won the hand and Montgomery busted out. The Danes started singing as Montgomery headed to the rail in 5th place. The last Canadian in the WSOP has left the building. He won $3,096,768.

Down to 4.

Congrats to the two Canadians at the final table. $5.5 million combined ain't a bad haul for a couple guys from Ontario.

See You In November...

... whoever you are.

And the WSOP Main Event wraps up until November 9th. Here's the final table:

Seat 1: Dennis Phillips - 26,295,000 (M=32.46, Q=1.73)
Seat 2: Craig Marquis - 10,210,000 (M=12.60, Q=0.67)
Seat 3: Ylon Schwartz - 12,525,000 (M=15.46, Q=0.82)
Seat 4: Scott Montgomery - 19,690,000 (M=24.31, Q=1.29)
Seat 5: Darus Suharto - 12,520,000 (M=15.46, Q=0.82)
Seat 6: David 'Chino' Rheem - 10,230,000 (M=12.63, Q=0.67)
Seat 7: Ivan Demidov - 24,400,000 (M=30.12, Q=1.60)
Seat 8: Kelly Kim - 2,620,000 (M=3.23, Q=0.17)
Seat 9: Peter Eastgate - 18,375,000 (M=22.69, Q=1.21)

Yup, a virtual cornucopia of big names. At least the chips finally add up again (off by 15,000 from the starting chips, which works out to 1,666.67 per player. No big deal. Although the appearance of 666 again brings some numerological questions into play.) But what a structure. Final table, and with one exception, everyone's got some play left in their stacks.

Darus Suharto is from the mighty town of Toronto, Ontario, Canada, so he's got my support automatically. Unless he's a complete asshole. He came in 448th in the 2006 ME for $26k. 39 years old.

Scott Montgomery is from Perth, Ontario, Canada... not that far from Toronto really (about a 3.5 - 4 hour drive). So he's who I want to see heads-up with Suharto. If Suharto is an ass, then Montgomery can win :). Although his favourite starting hand is JQh. Sharkscope stats are slim (r_a_y_m_a_n_d on Full Tilt, r_a_y sm on Stars, r_a_y_ on AP, and r_a_y on UB - home of his biggest online cash for $20k.) He's won 400k this year in live tournaments. 26 years old. 27 once the final table starts.

Nice how they put the Canucks next to eachother. Conspiracy!

Pauly likes Ylon Schwartz due to his wiseass answers to the player profile questionnaire, you've got to respect that. $250k in earnings over the years.

Dennis Philips has cashed in two WSOP circuit events this year, both at Tunica within days of each other. 7th and 9th place, on the 7th and 9th, but not respectively. Total value of that? A bit less than $5k.

Craig Marquis - $35k since last year. He looks like a complete tool in his Bluff picture.

David "Chino" Rheem - Nearly $600k in the past few years. Apparently the crowd favourite. Funny how he's also got the biggest earnings so far...

Ivan Demidov - $63k in the last 3 years, including his biggest score in a $1k event at the WSOP for $39k. I'm assuming he's the Russian who didn't trust anyone so didn't have an endorsement deal locked up before yesterday's play started. Good plan on his part now that he's second in chips. Assuming the Russian mafia don't decide to become his agent.

Kelly Kim - $250k career earnings. Sunglasses are so retarded at the table. Really people. You know you want to pull for this guy though - $2.6MM shortstack at the final table with 150000/300000/40000? Average stack is 15,207,222. He just made $900k and will come back with an M of 3.23 and a Q of 0.17. The next shortest stack has almost 4x his chips. Talk about an underdog.

Peter Eastgate - $84k from the Scandi open this year. 22 years old.

So everybody's got at least SOME sort of profile out there. Not COMPLETE unknowns. Although the chipleader seems to have the least success. I imagine he'll be getting a lot of advice and offers for training before he gets to the airport to head out.

Two, count 'em, TWO Canadians at the final table. Both form Ontario. Yup, we rock.

900k... kinda makes my 42nd in the 50/50 last night seem tiny by comparison. Oh wait, that looked tiny when it happened.

Maybe My Math is Wrong...

20,000 starting chips x 6,844 players = 136,880,000

The sum of chipstacks at the start of today (numbers from Pauly's site, which I assume are from Pokernews) = 139,200,000

So that's, once again, a 2,320,000 difference between how many chips should be in play, and how many are. Or an extra 85,925 chips per player remaining... a bit more than an extra BB each.

Did I miss something?

More on ME

Interesting.

6844 entrants.
20,000 chips per player.
So that's 136,880,000 chips in play.

474 players left.
Based on the Pokernews chipcounts, there's currently 136,658,050 chips in play.

That's 221,950 missing chips. Granted, that's only 468 missing chips per player, or less than an ante, so it's understandable in terms of miscounts. Or possibly it's result of how they colour-up. Be interesting to keep an eye on the number as play progresses though.

Anyway... irrelevant to the dwarf's status.

25 players with an M < 5. 95 players with an M < 10. 179 players with an M < 15 (Iggy among them). 243 with an M < 20... or better than half the field.

35 Q < 0.25 and 130 Q < 0.5.

So he's in decent shape... against the field.

But his table shapes up worse. He's got the #2 guy to the right, and he's got less than 30k more than the shortstack at his table. Average stack for his table is 417,812 chips. It drops his Q to 0.42, which is significant.

So if you're Iggy, how to you play with an M of 14 and Q of 0.42 with a huge stack two to your right? Directly on his right is a fairly successful player ($642k in earnings, including over $30k in last year's ME) who has twice his chips. The shortstack, with 29,000 less chips is directly to his left, which could be good for a while, but not for long unless that guy is really weak-tight. Other than the shortstack, he's only a real threat to one other player who has 230k and is three to his left.

Oh, and Justin Scott won the $2,000 NLHE event in 2006 for $842k. Everyone else has small wins in big tournaments it seems, so they might be out of their elemen

He could probably fold to the next level, which is only $1,930 more... or not. I've got faith in the little guy. Once the dust settles, he'll either have triple his current stack or be solidly drunk.

GOOOOOOOO IGGY! You can do it!

Not Bad For a Drunken Whim

Iggy's made the money and day 4!

160,000 177,500 chips in front of everyone's favourite dwarf.
474 players left - avg stack is 288,776
Which puts him in 298th place
$27,020 minimum paid at this point

So that's not too shabby for a guy who played in a satellite on Stars at the last minute in a drunken haze. The man's going to end up winning this thing. I hope there's a party.

Of course, Pokernews only lists 284 players' chip counts. Getting shoddy over there. Or maybe it will look better after they've had some sleep. Pokernews has the chipcounts and numbers updated properly now.

I believe blinds will start at 2500/5000 with a 500 ante.

Means his M is 13.33 14.79, and his Q is 0.55 0.61. Draw your own conclusions on how he should play when play starts at 1pm PST. I mean, I've never been sitting on $27k with over $9 million more up for grabs, or even played in an event close to the ME, what do I know?

Go Iggy!

Yah, everyone knows Iggy's made day 3 in the Main Event.

Interestingly, Pokernews says 1,307 left, but only list 1,302 in the chipcount... they're also short 402,666 chips in their total count, which means the 5 missing players have an average of 80,000 chips. Anyway, I'm sure they just missed a player or 5... easy to do when dealing with over 1300.

Iggy's got 86,700 Chips.
Average stack for 1,307 players - 104,728
Blinds starting at 800/1600/200

So his M is 20.64. Q is around 0.83. Of course, that's against the remaining field, which is less important than his table at this point. Regardless, he's in decent shape if the distribution of chips isn't skewed to his table. At the very least, he should be able to keep up with the blinds at that level, and we know he can increase that stack easily enough, especially if his power of getting chips dumped his way come into effect.

He's in a 3-way tie for 655th place at the moment, with 666 paying out, and 641 needed to drop before they hit the payout. Over $21k for the last payout spot, which isn't too shabby.

248 players with an M < 10, 432 with M < 15, and 612 with M < 20 (all numbers include the lower amounts)... so most of those 641 could be gone within a few hours. Of course, as the bubble approaches, play will slow to a crawl, but with more than 650 players, it can't go THAT slowly, can it?

We may see it burst before the day is done.

Enough numbers - Good Luck Ignatious, we're all pulling for ya.

Random Monday

Let's start with some states of matter:

Gas - widely-spaced molecules without a defined shape or volume. Can generally be walked through with minimal effort.

Liquid - more dense than gas, defined volume, no defined shape. Liquids often require more effort to pass through than gas.

Solid - closely-spaced molecules, defined shape and volume. Very difficult to pass other matter through.

People are largely liquid, but are more defined by their solid parts. A subway is very solid. The doorways on a subway are there to remove some of this solid material so our solid parts can pass from the inside of the subway to the outside. These doorways have defined, immutable shapes.

IF YOU ARE A PERSON AND YOU STAND IN THE FUCKING DOORWAY WHEN PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO GET ON AND OFF THE TRAIN, YOU ARE BLOCKING THE DOORWAY! DON'T START GIVING DIRTY LOOKS TO PEOPLE WHEN THEY BUMP INTO YOU TRYING TO SQUEEZE PAST YOUR LAZY INCONSIDERATE ASS ON THEIR WAY OUT DURING RUSH HOUR.

Please, if you can't move away from the door due to the people behind you, then STEP OUTSIDE THE DOOR and let everyone one. Then you can GET BACK ON! I know, it's a crazy concept.

Now we've all learned some science... which totally sucks of course.

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Saw Southland Tales last night - odd movie. Great cast, interesting story and concept, but not exactly well-defined. You'd think 182 minutes would be enough time to tell a story, but I think some of the cut footage from the longer cut needs to be put back in. I doubt it would explain the more metaphysical aspects of the film, but some of the lines and actions might make more sense if whatever they're referencing was shown.

Dwayne Johnson was the central character and was once again the best part of a movie. I'm glad to see The Rock avoid the action hero role he could have slogged through as a wrestler. He's got great comic ability and charisma to burn. If he can just make his acting seem less like acting (not that it's terrible by any means), he'd be set.

Also, I really like Seann William Scott in it. Who knew Stifler could act?

Anyway, I think I need to watch it again. It's not Donnie Darko by any means, but there's something worthwhile in there.

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NEWSFLASH: Toronto is on the shores of Lake Ontario! We have islands! I went to them yesterday. Many pictures were taken. Thing is - the islands are actually kind of boring once you get away from the touristy area. It's a nice walk, and very peaceful and relaxing (other than a desire to push oblivious cyclists off their bikes), but not tremendously exciting.

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Shitty that the Power Couple busted from the WSOP ME on Day 1. But hey, The Blogfather is heading to day 2 with 38k in chips. What are the odds of Iggy stumbling his way to a win? I mean, the guy drunkenly plays in a satellite and wins it, without ever intending to go the WSOP this year. Then he claims he somehow made it to day 2 despite being outplayed and outchipped all day long. Of course, he'd have to win the whole thing with The Hammer.

At least Riggs and Al are in Vegas. Poor Las Vegas, it was such a nice, quaint, quiet, peaceful, God-fearing town... now these two are going to turn it into a den of iniquity and sin.

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MATH shootout tonight! Also the end of that Sunday buy-in experiment. Good riddance. Will I be present? Probably. I've got a small pile of chores to get out of the way first though... and a craving for breaded chicken.

WSOP Stuff

8,733 entrants last year. 6,358 this year. 2,375 less players. Yay US Gubmint anti-gambling and Harrah's no 3rd-party buy-in rules! This year's jackpot? 8.25 Mil. Still not too shabby, but somewhat anti-climactic.

And could they neuter the game anymore? No more Jamie Gold-like table talk? Can't show a card vs a heads-up all-in? Cell phones I get, but they keep stripping away the psychological aspect of the game. Why not just have everyone sit silently behind a curtain? Wait, I know! Why play live at all? Just make it an online event.

Oh giant corporations, how wonderfully you fuck shit up.