Friday, July 11, 2008

More on ME


6844 entrants.
20,000 chips per player.
So that's 136,880,000 chips in play.

474 players left.
Based on the Pokernews chipcounts, there's currently 136,658,050 chips in play.

That's 221,950 missing chips. Granted, that's only 468 missing chips per player, or less than an ante, so it's understandable in terms of miscounts. Or possibly it's result of how they colour-up. Be interesting to keep an eye on the number as play progresses though.

Anyway... irrelevant to the dwarf's status.

25 players with an M < 5. 95 players with an M < 10. 179 players with an M < 15 (Iggy among them). 243 with an M < 20... or better than half the field.

35 Q < 0.25 and 130 Q < 0.5.

So he's in decent shape... against the field.

But his table shapes up worse. He's got the #2 guy to the right, and he's got less than 30k more than the shortstack at his table. Average stack for his table is 417,812 chips. It drops his Q to 0.42, which is significant.

So if you're Iggy, how to you play with an M of 14 and Q of 0.42 with a huge stack two to your right? Directly on his right is a fairly successful player ($642k in earnings, including over $30k in last year's ME) who has twice his chips. The shortstack, with 29,000 less chips is directly to his left, which could be good for a while, but not for long unless that guy is really weak-tight. Other than the shortstack, he's only a real threat to one other player who has 230k and is three to his left.

Oh, and Justin Scott won the $2,000 NLHE event in 2006 for $842k. Everyone else has small wins in big tournaments it seems, so they might be out of their elemen

He could probably fold to the next level, which is only $1,930 more... or not. I've got faith in the little guy. Once the dust settles, he'll either have triple his current stack or be solidly drunk.

GOOOOOOOO IGGY! You can do it!

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