Divided Attention

Two unimaginable games. Back-to-back victories over the Bruins. Somehow, The Leafs, MY Leafs, were in game 7, with all the momentum their way.

And I was heading uptown to play free poker in a bar with poorly placed televisions. My Leafs jersey (Clark 17, C, Winter Classic) was on, and a Tim Hortons cup was in my hand as I boarded the subway. I exchanged nods with the random stranger in a Leafs jersey sitting across from me. I looked at the other jerseys around me. They all got off at Union station, a short underground walk to the Air Canada Centre and Maple Leaf Square. I stayed on the train.

It was day 2 of the main event after all. I didn't play to get here for nothing.

Up the stairs I wandered, got my seat assignment, and listened to the welcome and game changes for this stage of play. I was table 6, downstairs, away from the rest of the action. Seat 1 was obstructed view of the TV in the opposite corner. It would suffice.

7pm saw the cards in the air and the puck dropped.

20,000 chips in front of me. 20,000 fans in their seats.

I called a few small raises with hands meant to catch. They didn't. I was more interested in the game on the TV than the game I was playing. Boston scored. The bar groaned. I said it was still early. I counted my chips and was down 10%. It was still early.

Franson scored. The bar erupted in cheers. My chips hadn't changed much.

We broke for dinner, I was down 5%, Leafs were tied at the beginning of the second.

Franson scored again, 2-1, happy bar. My grilled chicken caesar wrap with tasteless fries was served.

Back to the game, back to watching the game. I make a huge error. I flip the 5k chip off the top of my stack instead of taking the 500 from the bottom, plus a couple 100s. 5.2k pre-flop raise in the hijack instead of 700 at the 100/200/25. Pocket nines. The table pauses, unsure how to react. Folds to the small blind, who tanks and then calls. Big blind is in pain, wanting to take part, but now extra scared by the call. He folds.

Flop comes K99. Dem's quads. SB thinks and bets 5.1k into the 10.8k pot. He has less than 10k behind, I have around 14k. I push, figuring he either can't get away or has AA, AK, or KK and won't leave. He calls and flips over TT for the runner-runner quads draw. It doesn't come and I find myself with around 38k, having doubled my stack.

Third period starts and Kessel scores. 3-1 Leafs. Table lead me.

Kadri scores. 4-1 Leafs, nothings changed at the table, but most of us are cheering and watching the TV anyway.

Bruins get one back, I comment that I HATE 2 goal leads because they create a false sense of security. Two idiots at the table comment that it's okay, because there's no way Boston scores two goals in 10 minutes. The Leafs will shut them down. I politely inform them to keep their traps shut.

Play continues both on the ice and at the table. My chips stay static, my hands inconsequential.

Boston scores again, after my guys can't pot an empty-netter. We can't see how much time is on the clock due to obstructing wall. I check my apps and see 1:22 left. Sonofabitch.Same morons as before tell us not to worry, I contemplate defenestration, even if it's only onto the patio.

Tied game. I tweet one word, but use a lot of capital letters and "U"s.

We colour up and the table breaks to join the rest of the tournament upstairs. Overtime is starting. I hope nothing happens until I get to my new seat.

One TV in the corner, but I have a better view than before. The upstairs guys are a few minutes behind us, and are still colouring up the small chips. I lean against a bar rail and try to keep my stomach from churning. 3 games of momentum completely switched around. 3 minutes of unfortunate play exposing the inexperience of a young team. Gasps and almost cheers and texts and tweets and nerves and pain and anticipation all roiling around, and I still have a tournament to play.

Bergeron scores for Boston, and I pound on the rail and hang my head. The bar empties out. Play resumes. It's suddenly very hot under my Jersey, so I hang it on my chair. Börje Salming was dealing, now it's just a guy named Phil who looks about as thrilled as I am. I fold hands and pay no attention to the table. I tweet and text and support my forehead with my hand as I toss out antes.

A Canadian is returning from space and landing in the sea in Kazakhstan, contained in a sardine tin with two other astronauts. He's inspired hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people over the past 5 months with videos and photos and songs and a goofy and ultimately Canadian sense of humour. He's cheered the Leafs the whole time. He's watched the games a day behind, asking 750,000 people not to spoil the outcomes for him. He was hurtling towards the Earth and experiencing forces I never will as the boys in Blue and White were choking on youth and anxiety. I hope he doesn't ask what the score is until he's out of the capsule. I'm incredibly proud of our representative to the world while simultaneously sad about a hockey game.

I start paying attention to the game. The dealer/player is raking in a big pile of big chips. He's a good player with the apparent table lead, and two to my left. This could take some work. I see nothing particularly worthwhile, but steal some blinds and antes. I fold more than I call, but my 29k in chips is rapidly depreciating as the seconds tick by.

A 5k chip is found under the table. Everyone agrees it's probably the dealer's from his big hand. Tournament director declares it a dead chip as it had been there for a while. Dealer tilts. Leafs loss was probably the instigator, chip is the catalyst.


Parachutes are open and the Soyuz is on screen. All systems look good. I watch players push and survive. I keep getting change for my antes and blinds.

Dealer, still tilting slams down a call against two all-ins. His KJs catches a J on the river and knocks them both out. Still a roiling boil under the lid.

Splashdown. I see QTd with no action ahead of me. I raise and get only the BB calling. Q6T on the flop, BB bets, I push, BB calls. K6 is no good against my two pair, and I double up to a useable stack.

Next hand see QTs, and again, no action before me. I raise again, and get called by the simmering dealer. Everyone else folds. Flop comes all spades, all lower than my T. I bet just under the pot. My opponent tanks with an incredibly deep scowl on his brow. He almost starts talking to himself. I get a death stare and blink. He calls. Flop is a red card. I push. He calls and says, "You have a flush?" "Yup." "I knew it." He shows AJd, and maybe caught a pair on the river. I somehow had him barely covered after my last win. He calls over the floor and demands that he be relieved NOW. Deals one more hand. They break the table to let him get away. I say nothing. A "good game" sounds insulting in my mind, so I keep it to myself.

I count as I rack up for the move - 120k. Chip lead.  Commander Hadfield is out of the capsule, last of the three. All safe and sound and getting used to gravity while looking forward to a hot shower and toilets that flush. I imagine a flame-grilled steak wouldn't suck either. Our achievements so far are not comparable, although I'm okay with a camera.

New table is uneventful. CBC continues in the background, but it's nothing of interest anymore. We break to colour up the 100's and we are 5 away from breaking for the day, or 23 minutes, whichever comes first.

Shortly upon return, I'm moved for the final time. Best view of the TV all night, nothing good on. As I unrack my chips, the classic "ah, here to distribute the wealth" line is quipped. I retort with "no, I'm on a mission of consolidation so they have less bags to worry about tomorrow." Then I steal the blinds and antes to show that I'm serious.

I get a walk in the BB a bit later, but otherwise don't play as stacks drop off. 3 left. 2. On the bubble and hand-for-hand between the two tables.

A medium stack raises from the button. The BB pushes all-in. They're close. Button calls quickly with AKd. BB shows QJh. The board plays out with low cards, but a third heart on the river. AK doesn't see it and assume he won. Comments that he feels bad, but thinks the BB has him covered, so the BB is still around for tomorrow. Dealer counts, and he's right - the BB does have him covered, so the button is out. He doesn't understand. The whole table points out the flush. AK feels like a fool and announces he's the bubble and out, wishes everyone good luck, and scampers out.

On his way, the floor lets him know he's actually out 16th, as an all-in went out at the other table just before him. The result doesn't change, but Day 3 is now 15 players instead of 16, and the guy gets to feel worse on his way home.

Chips are bagged, photos are taken, handshakes and congratulations are offered all around. When all is said and done, I'm still chip leader with 124k, ahead of the 101.5k second place before it drops to 80's and 50's and lower. 935,000 chips in play, 62k average stack. 3000/6000/500 8-handed to start today, 20 minutes a level.

And the Blue Jays will be on in the background.

A Learning Experience

I'll keep telling myself it's not over. That it's just a 3-game win streak. One game at a time. Hope reigns eternal in Leafland.

But my Leafs are down 3 games to 1 against the Bruins. This isn't actually unexpected. Once the matchups were known, the jokes flew. "I'll enjoy all 3 games" was a popular one. The reality is that the Leafs have had a hard time with Boston for a long time. They're a solid, hard-nosed, suffocating team with great chemistry built from years of playing together. The Leafs are a young team with limited experience that's really only had half a season to get to know each other and their coach.

Still, my guys have played some great hockey, and even with reality in the back of my mind, I want to believe. I sat on my couch with my Clark jersey and Leafs cap on. I reminded myself to breathe time and again. I scared the cats. I'm sure I scared the neighbours. And in the end, I nearly collapsed with Boston's overtime goal. Krejci Temple-of-Doomed my heart out of my chest with his hat trick.

If it had been a blowout, I would have sighed. But this was sudden death overtime. This was an evenly-matched game. This was the Leafs showing great pressure, hitting posts, and Rask somehow stopping them time and again. This was all kinds of anticipation and joy crushed in an instant. Hell, I even thought O'Byrne had knocked the puck off Krejci's stick at the last second. It hurt.

But, like this series, like this whole season, this is a learning experience for my team. Of the whole team, only 9 guys have ever seen the playoffs before. That's some serious inexperience. Carlyle can preach and teach and drill, but until these kids see what happens when they don't listen, they won't learn. This is the school of hard knocks for them.

Kadri's learned that he can't be a fucking superstar if it means he'll give away the puck.

Reimer's learning that any weakness will be exploited, and that he has to see through bodies.

Gardiner is starting to show why he could be a great offensive defenceman with some more seasoning and maturity.

Grabovski's showing that all he's ever wanted is the chance to play in the second season.

Lupul and Kessel are showing great on-ice leadership.

And Phaneuf has been reminded that high-risk plays in playoff overtimes are fucking idiotic.

They're learning. It's apparent every single game. On Friday they get another lesson, and their hardest test yet - how to face elimination, and how to do it in a hostile environment. This will be mentally hard on them. The one-game-at-a-time belief will HAVE to sink in for them to have a chance. They'll have to remember every lesson, and summon every ounce of skill and discipline. And if, by some chance, they find themselves in a game 7? They can't get cocky.

But in the more likely event that I won't be distracted during my Monday night poker tournament, they'll have to take these lessons home with them. When they come back to training camp next season they'll have to remember everything they've learned and be ready to build on it. Carlyle's messages will mean more. They'll have the weight of experience behind them. They'll be prefaced with "remember when you did this in the Boston series?" The roar of the crowd will still be in their hearts, the taste of the playoffs in their mouths. The expectations of Leaf Nation will sit heavier on their shoulders. They'll have war stories between them, bonds made stronger by crushing hits and heartbreaking goals.

And they'll only get better.

Shut Up About the Goaltending

Since last season (and honestly, for a number of seasons), the cry has been that the Leafs need a bona fide goalie. Montreal has Price, Calgary has Kiprusoff, New Jersey has Brodeur, Pittsburgh has Fleury, etc.. The Leafs have Reimer and Scrivens. We haven't had a legit #1 since Belfour at the tail end of his career.

Reimer raised eyebrows a couple seasons back, covering when Gustavsson and Giguere were having issues. He did so well, he became the starter to finish the season in an attempt to get the Leafs into the playoffs. He was the #1 goalie last season, started strong, and then went down with "concussion-like symptoms". He returned before he was 100% and didn't play the same. Throw in some serious head-fucking by goaltending "guru" François Allaire, who only knows one style, and "Optimus Reim" was looking like he was about done.

Allaire's gone. Reimer is healthy. I had faith that he could return to form. I seemed to be alone.

Calls for Luongo from Vancouver were loud. Kadri and Bozak for Roberto! Gardiner can be traded! Kessel for Bobby Lu! Give me a break.

But still, the fans and the papers go on and on about Toronto's need for an established goaltender. Apparently they're all brain dead.

Alright, maybe a veteran PRESENCE would help. Like Giguere was, or Cujo's brief second stint. Someone who can tell the younger guys how to prepare, how to deal with the day to day. But you know what? You don't need someone who dresses every night for that. You need a guy on staff, not the roster. See if you can grab Joseph from his Kingston Frontenacs goaltending coach gig. Hell, some nights even bringing Johnny Bower into the locker room for a pep talk would probably be enough.

Because Reimer and Scrivens are doing just fine.

Stats:

Reimer: 20 Starts, 2.52 GAA, .920 SV %, 13-4-4
Scrivens: 16 Starts,  2.59 GAA, .918 SV %, 7-8-0
Average: 2.56 GAA, .919 SV%

Among goalies who have started 16 or more games: Reimer is 19th, and Scrivens 21st out of 33. Not great, but not terrible. Especially if you keep in mind that the Leafs score 3.11 goals per game (4th in the league behind Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Tampa), that's over half a goal/game of room to play with.

Oh, but the Leafs give up a lot of shots. A ton. 31.8/game - 4th worst in the league. So those save percentages? Reimer is 9th, Scrivens 13th. Again - goalies with 16 or more starts.

Wins are relatively easy to rank. Toronto is 7th overall in the league in wins.

But wins/start? Reimer is 6th. Scrivens? A far less impressive 26th.

So, with all that info out there. The question becomes - who the hell are people looking for?

Obviously the franchise goalies aren't going anywhere, so the Prices and Fleurys can be ignored. Also, any team in the playoff hunt isn't going to part with their starter, so guys like Backstrom or Rask are going anywhere. Also forget anyone in the East helping the Leafs. So Ottawa ain't sending Bishop our way.

So who does that leave? Let's go with stats.

GAA, better than Reimer and theoretically possible: Roberto Luongo? Ray Emery? One of Anaheim's tenders? Yah... out of those, Luongo is the only one actually available.

Better than Reimer in SV %? Hrmm... nobody. Not a one. Anderson is the only goaltender who would be worth the upgrade (.952), and he's not moving from the Senators, plus he's been injured for half the season. Seriously, even Crawford has only a .005 better %. It's a tight group at the top. Oh, and Luongo? .904 - 28th.

How about wins/games started?  Unless Chicago's got Emery on the block or Anaheim wants to give up Fasth for a 3rd round pick. Not much out there. Luongo? Has won exactly half his starts vs Reimer's 65%, which as stated, is 6th in the league.

Actually, Emery keeps popping up. He's about the same at SV% as Reimer, and beats him in the other two categories I'm looking at. Except he was a head case in Ottawa, bounced around after that, is having a career season, and plays for CHICAGO. All strikes against his being worth anything away from that team. Besides, the Hawks aren't sending him anywhere.

Oh, one other - Tomas Vokoun. Better in every category (2.33, .922, 77%), and he's Fleury's backup. Consistent SV%, 2nd best year for his GAA. Oh, but also 36 years old. Of course, he's not an every day guy, is in the same conference, and is exactly the kind of backup you want for a playoff run. So again, not going anywhere, and not worth particularly much.

So that's a long way of saying there's not much out there. Bernier from the Kings? Sure, except how is he a more proven variable than Reimer? 9 starts this season? His numbers are generally better, and he's definitely an upgrade over Scrivens, but he's not a proven starter, and stepping into Toronto for a hockey player is like playing for the Yankees in baseball - you are in a media maelstrom. Does LA's backup have the mental toughness for that? Do you take that chance?

Reality is harsh. Toronto's goaltending may not be top-tier. For as good a tandem as they are, our guys don't offer the consistent backbone of a Fleury or Price or Rask or Crawford or Miller. But there also aren't any of those guys out there to be had for Toronto. Sure, there are intangibles in a bona fide starter that don't show up on stats sheets, but with 12 games left in the season? A playoff spot FINALLY looking realistic? Frankly, no change between the pipes is worth it right now. We can revisit in the off-season.

Leafs Update

Since my last post:

- Kostka gets a break in the press box and Liles plays (called it)
- Lupul back Saturday
- Steckel traded to Anaheim for Ryan Lasch and a 7th rounder in 2014 (I'll take a "called it" on that too)
- 4th loss in a row, unbelievably key game against Winnipeg on Saturday

Doesn't look like Lupul will start on the 1st line. No surprise there. 3rd with Kadri and Kulemin looking likely, with Frattin and MacArthur on the 2nd with Grabo. 1st unchanged with Bozak, Kessel, and JVR.

Know what? That's a helluva set of lines there. I really like Kadri between Lupul and Kulemin. Kulemin can't score to save his life (not bad on assists though), but he's a great defensive forward, which gives Kadri and Lupul more freedom to take a chance or two, knowing there are essentially 2.5 defensemen behind them. Of course, this requires either Lupul or Kulemin playing on the wrong wing. One would hope Carlyle learned his lesson in Anaheim and LEAVES LUPUL ON THE LEFT. Kulemin can't be offensively worse on his off wing.

Grabo's speed and creativity might finally see the expected dividends with Frattin and Mac alongside him. 1st line speaks for itself right now.

At last Carlyle has, at least temporarily, dropped the "keep the Russians together" concept. Of course, all this could change by game time tomorrow.

Now, if these lines take off, don't expect much movement. Otherwise, Lupul will inevitably be on the 1st line again (where he belongs), with JVR and MacArthur being somewhere on the 2nd and 3rd.

The Inn is Full

Long Leafs post. You've been warned.

I was going to write this yesterday, but opted to lose some bar poker instead. Still, the idea doesn't change that much on the heels of a 3-game losing streak for my boys in blue & white.

The Leafs have a roster problem. Too many players.

There are two noticeable absences in the line-up at the moment - Joffery Lupul and Jake Gardiner. Lupul was our number two scorer last year, and the top line of him and Kessel was unstoppable - and one of the only bright spots of the season. Three games in this year he took a Dion Phaneuf shot off the forearm and has been out ever since waiting for the fracture to heal. There seems to be a perpetual "1-2 week" period until he's ready to play these days. He skated with the team on Monday, but is still not 100%. This hasn't been a problem to date because others have picked up the slack. Van Riemsdyk  has worked well with Kessel on the top line. MacArthur and Kadri have chemistry on the 3rd. Frattin was shooting out the lights before he went down for a couple weeks, but he's back now and showing some good hustle. Still, Lupul's presence is missed - the guy has speed, power, finesse, is hard to move, and offered plenty of options when skating down the ice with Kessel on the the other side. Either could score with ease. Not to mention he constantly comes off as the most articulate and intelligent of the Leafs in interviews and is a leader in the dressing room.

Gardiner is our rookie phenom on D. With lots of speed and stick-handling ability he's got skills that our largely stay-at-home defense is lacking. He came back to the team too quickly after a concussion in the minors, and was sent back down to finish getting up to speed. He's been proving that he's ready to come back ever since.

So what's the hold up? Waivers.

The Leafs have a full roster and only 3 players who can be sent down to the minors without having to clear waivers - Nazem Kadri, Leo Komarov, and Korbinian Holzer. Kadri ain't going anywhere, being tied for the team lead with 25 points. Komarov is a hitting machine and the irritant every team loves to have. That leaves Holzer, another rookie D-man, who just got a 2-year extension. He's had a rough week, and was never good enough to justify staying in the lineup game-in and game-out with someone like Gardiner waiting in the wings. Until you look deeper.

Up in the press box sits John-Michael Liles and Mike Komisarek.  Two veteran Ds who haven't seen the ice in over a month. Komi is a failed acquisition who will be bought out once the season is done if he's not traded first. He COULD be sent down without fear of clearing waivers (because nobody would take him, and if they did, we'd be fine with it), except for his no-movement clause. Whoops. I've never been sure why Liles hasn't been given another shot on the ice though. He's got good speed, and good offensive production, but perhaps doesn't have a strong enough defensive game for Carlyle.

So, 1 player that can be easily moved down, 2 players that should be on the ice. That math doesn't add up.

There are a few things in play here that may not be obvious. First, Gardiner has 3 games to play in the big leagues before he can't go back down. So if he's brought up, he's up for good. Throw in an already jammed-up defense (8 D on the 23-man roster right now), and this complicates matters. Franson, Phaneuf, and Fraser aren't coming off the ice. Gunnarsson and Kostka COULD see time in the press box for a break if the coach had any faith in the $8.4 million in players already there. That leaves Holzer. I'll get to that in a second. Point being - there isn't room for the guy without a move.

So why not Holzer? Because Lupul HAS to come back, and Holzer is the insurance for that. Gardiner CAN stay with Marlies this season if need be. It sucks for him, but them's the breaks from a contract perspective. I'm sure Nonis and company are letting him know how much they want to bring him up, but just can't. Lupul doesn't have a choice. They're taking their time with his recovery (a lot of times, this sort of injury would see a guy back at 80-90% with a soft cast or something. But they're going for the full 100% here) because it takes pressure off the roster situation, and the team is doing fine so far. If a trade can't be made, then Holzer goes down to clear up space for Lupul, with Liles coming down from the press box to fill the spot on the blue line. If Holzer goes down now for Gardiner, then the Leafs are in a bad spot trade-wise. They'll HAVE to make a trade, and that shifts the advantage to the other side of the deal. Every GM will know that the Leafs have to clear roster space, so they'll offer less for more. That's not acceptable. So Holzer stays up... as leverage.

Ideally, the Leafs would love to trade Komisarek, or possiibly Liles. The fans would like to see Kulemin gone, despite him being a solid defensive forward (he's paid too much for that role, based off one offensively productive season). Any of those would go for reasonable draft picks or prospects, but we could potentially get an overpaid roster player if the fit is right. Someone like a Bozak, MacArthur, or Franson are also possibilities. The first two because they're UFAs at the end of the season and worth something now, the last because he's worth more than he's ever been and we're heavy on defense with Gardiner waiting and Morgan Reilly coming up quickly. Although the pressure to make the playoffs this year could prevent some of those trades from happening (do you trade your top faceoff guy, who takes EVERY defensive-zone faceoff? Do you trade one of your best playmakers? Or your top offensive defenseman?) Will anybody offer anything worthwhile for Komi, Liles, or Kulemin and their contracts? Will the Leafs have to carry salary for those trades to happen?

Also, how does Lupul's return change things? He goes on the top line sooner rather than later (maybe not game 1, but by game 4). JVR to the second? Where does that put Kulemin? JVR to 3rd and MacArthur to where?  The lineup shakes up significantly on Lupul's return. Only after that disturbance will the Leafs really know what they need and who they don't. So it's yet another reason to hold off bringing up Gardiner. Lupul returns and you get 1 or 2 weeks to assess your full team before the trade deadline.

So my call? Barring some unexpected trade (ie.- David Steckel for a 5th rounder, or someone comes calling for Komisarek, or Kostka is even an outside possibility), or this losing streak carrying on (creating panic moves), Holzer stays on the team until Lupul is ready to return. Then Holzer goes down, then trades happen, then maybe Gardiner comes up - if Carlyle can figure out how to use him.

Pouring Baseballs

Reports are that the Jays have signed Melky Cabrera to a two-year $16-million contract. Not the Cabrera you necessarily want, but maybe not too shabby.

This feels incredibly un-Jays like though. Not the free-spending, that's happened in the past. No, the signing a performance-enhancing drug user. The Jays have generally been seen as a very clean team during their life. Hell, they've barely even had players with attitude problems, let alone cheating ones.

So why Cabrera? Sure, we needed a left fielder to go along with Bautista and Rasmus, as the consensus seems to be Davis is a late-game speed replacement, not an every-day guy (which I find kind of sad, I like him). But there had to be one with less baggage.

If Cabrera can perform with even his Kansas City numbers, then he's well worth it. A switch-hitter who can hit .300? Hell, anyone hitting .300 is a welcome addition to the Jays. If he drops back to inconsistent Atlanta and New York numbers... well, he's just another Jay, and nothing special.

That said, the team is much stronger already, so if he gets buried in the 6-8 spots, it won't exactly hurt the team as long as he can play left worth a damn.

If he puts up numbers like last season, cleanly, then it's the biggest surprise since Bautista got his swing right.

This opens up more trading possibilities. If Davis is happy being a pinch runner and strategic entry, then he stays on the roster. If not, then he's trade bait. Both Moises Sierra and Anthony Gose can stick around in Buffalo (that's just weird) and be called up as needed, although Gose is just about ready to go every day in the bigs.  If Gose achieves that, then Rasmus could be on the trading block.

Arencibia is still definitely trade bait. For a second baseman? Maybe. Talk of Bonifacio vs Maicer Izturis for the spot is there, but if someone better is available, I'm sure Anthopoulos will jump on it. Or who knows? Maybe Scutaro comes back to the Jays fold. That'd be one hell of a capper to an offseason.

Other holes are starting pitching depth, but that's more minor-league transaction-level at this point, and maybe figuring out 1st base. Encarnacion and Lind platooning 1B and DH is the most likely scenario, and that's not a bad situation really.

Oh, and I guess we still need a manager. Shouldn't be too hard to find interested parties now. I wonder how Farrell likes the view in his rear-view mirror now.

Baseball in November

Yesterday the Blue Jays made a huge trade with the Miami Marlins.

12 players.

Just about anybody making money with the Marlins is now a Blue Jay. A whack of prospects, our backup catcher, and our shortstop who wrote a gay slur in his eye black are heading to Florida.

Helluva trade.

I do love how the ESPN guy asked "Where did Toronto get all that money??" Once again displaying the invisibility of this team to the League at large. The Jays are owned by a multi-BILLION dollar telecom/media company that pulls in over $2Bil in profit annually.  They're probably one of the richest ownerships in the Majors, they just don't like spending on a team that pulls in 20,000 fans when the Yankees or Red Sox aren't in town.

Evidently, the lack of Leafs revenue this year has prompted them to look at their other teams. Yes, Rogers owns half the Leafs and Raptors too.

Miami fans are rightly pissed. Jays fans are generally happy, except that most Jays fans are clueless, so some of them don't actually recognize any of the names.  But the sports media will work to change that, since they actually know who Buerhle, Reyes, and Johnson are.

Local media is calling it the second biggest trade in Jays history. The biggest is known to any Jays fans - McGriff and Fernandez  for Carter and Alomar. But if the Jays can pull off a couple World Series wins and three divisional titles, then this one could beat it.

The big names are the scene stealers here obviously, but I'm more interested in John Buck.

Buck signed with the Marlins after his best year ever, with the Jays. Nobody's expecting 20 HR out of the guy this time around, but with Mathis going to the Marlins, Buck is a $6.5 million backup to J.P. Arencibia. Which seems... odd.

Arencibia is history. He's a top-tier catcher who isn't needed here. The fans love him, but Travis d'Arnaud is ready and is as can't-miss as prospects get. So you trade J.P. for a need (everyday left fielder? First baseman if you don't think Lind can handle it? Second base seems the most pressing), and let Buck mentor d'Arnaud in the majors for one season. Then Buck's gone, D'Arnaud is every-daying it, and you find your next cheap backup.

There was some talk of moving Arencibia to 1st, but that just seems unlikely.

But let's look at this team now.

Starting Pitching: Romero, Morrow, Beurhle, Johnson, Happ. That's one solid lineup assuming Ricky's surgery fixed what ailed him last season.  There's Kyle Drabek on the shelf after Tommy John surgery too, so that's a possible mid-season replacement if someone doesn't work out.

Bullpen: Middle relief is decent, and in many places solid. If Oliver decides to come back for one more season, he'll likely be the setup man to Casey Janssen, who OWNED the closer spot when it was thrust upon him last year. He was dominant, and Janssen has been Mr. Consistency for years now.

Infield: Reyes at short, Lawrie at 3rd are your key points. 2nd is unknown, I just don't see Mike McCoy there every day, 1st has Adam Lind, who everyone hopes can show the power he once did. At catcher is Buck, and as I said earlier, likely d'Arnaud. Some holes in the infield, but Arencibia should bring in some filler.

Outfield: Bautista will be back, Rasmus had a decent year in CF, and left is a bit of a question mark. Rajai Davis had spurts of brilliance, and is too fast not to play regularly. Anthony Gose was in RF during Bautista's absence but will likely be looked at in left, and his second time up with the Jays was stellar. Bonifacio could also find himself in the mix here.

So fielding-wise there might be a few weak spots, but the strong spots are pretty damned solid.

Hitting? Reyes is THE leadoff guy. Lawrie behind him, especially if Brett can learn how to run the bases with a bit of smarts. Then Bautista cranking them all home and Encarnacion batting cleanup to protect Bautista. That's one HELL of a top 4.

If they could find a way to have both Gose and Davis in the lineup regularly, you'd have unbelievable speed in your lineup. Sadly, that looks like it would only happen if one was brought in to run late in a game. Lind and Rasmus both have some pop, d'Arnaud was tearing up the minors before being injured last season. That leaves whoever they hell they get for 2nd base to round it out.

Now they just need that 2nd baseman and a manager.

Jays fans are talking today. The team went from an injury-plagued disaster of a promising season to on-paper contenders in one fell swoop. No hoping for the Yankees to falter, or Tampa to have a bad run. For the first time in a long time, the hype is more than hope.

As long as they stay healthy.

That Bird Has Flown

The Blue Jays 2012 season started full of potential, and was wiped out by injury.

I was at a game a couple weekends ago, and pointed out that only ONE of the starters had been on the opening day roster. In fact, if you added up the RBI count for all the players except Encarnacion, you had less RBIs than he did. Same deal with home runs.  If it wasn't for Rajai Davis, you could probably do the same with at-bats.

The pitcher? J.A. Happ, who we picked up just before the trade deadline.  Oddly enough, my guys won the game in an impressive and entertaining fashion.

We lost 3 starting pitchers within two weeks of each other. None have yet to return.  The starting rotation has been a revolving door of call-ups and relievers in longer roles. There have been some bright spots, but not a single starter has a winning record.

Our closer, who stank, went down early in the season. But lucky us, Casey Janssen turned out to be a hell of a finishing man. It's a shame he doesn't have more games to save.

Our bullpen, even before injuries, had 3 reliable guys in Frasor (currently injured), Oliver (41 years old), and Janssen. That's been improved through trades and call-ups.

The Jays have used more players than any other team in the AL. I think San Diego might beat them in the Majors though.  Toronto's almost definitely near the top in man-games lost.  And as I said, this includes 3/5 of our opening day starting rotation. Leaving one rookie and our ace.  Except Romero obviously can't handle the pressure of being the ONLY experienced starter and being relied on for a win every 5 games. He's performed terribly since the rotation got crushed.

This is a team that was in contention for 1st overall. Then lost that, but was only a few games back of the wild card. That's now long gone too with a 56-65 record, 10 games out of the post-season in any form.

We had the HR leader again in Bautista, now he'd have to go on an epic tear to catch up when he gets back from injury.  Luckily, Encarnacion has done nothing but impress and step up this season, with 31 homers and 82 RBIs and will only look better when more power is back in the lineup.

We have the leader in stolen bases in Rajai Davis, who is practically unstoppable when he gets on base.

Too bad nobody can hit .300, although Lawrie and Encarnacion have come close.

Lawrie, Morrow, and Bautista should all be back this weekend. Which sounds not unlike "unicorns will be farting rainbows across the sky" to Jays fans these days. Lind, Arencibia, and Frasor will hopefully be back by September. Hutchison, Drabek, Santos, McGowan, Litsch, (4 starters and a closer) are all gone for the season.

So let's recap: our 3B, RF, 1B, C, #1 middle-relief, and #2 starter will all be back in the lineup by mid-September. Our 2B, SS and CF JUST got back from less-serious injuries. That's all but 1 position out.

The 2012 season is a write-off. The team needs a mulligan from the fans, and a redo for 2013. The conditioning regimen needs to be seriously looked at, and the coaching staff's methods have to be overhauled. Bad luck is one thing. Losing nearly every single starting player for extended periods of time is unacceptable and a sign of something being rotten in the organization.

And dammit, this team was looking REALLY good. The question marks like Rasmus and Johnson were doing great, Encarnacion has earned every dollar of his contract, Bautista continued to MVP it up, Lawrie was growing into the star he'll be in leaps and bounds, Lind was finally figuring it out, Davis had earned his every day spot, Arencibia was leaving management confused what to do with the mega-prospect D'Arnaud in the minors (now also injured), with no room behind the plate in the bigs for him, Morrow was having a breakout year, Drabek was finally showing maturity, Hutchison and Alvarez were impressing.  Hell, the only hole was in the bullpen, and that could have been fixed if everyone wasn't trying to plug injury hole after injury hole.

I stand by my preseason prediction, this team would have been fighting for the wild card this year. The only bright spot is that they're young enough to put up that fight next year.  Maybe even stronger.  As it is now, with the hope that we do see most of the team healthy, I expect a strong September.  It will be too late, but it should be entertaining.

Sports Report

Jays = 5th place in the AL East, .506, probably 3rd in your division, 4 back of the wild card.

2nd in home runs
5th in RBIs
3rd in runs
17th in batting average... there's a problem. Although 7th in OPS

3 of our 5 starters are injured. Within a 2-week span. 2 of our past starters have been out the whole season so far, so there goes depth. AA pitchers have been rushed up to the bigs.

Our closer? Sucked and is injured. Luckily Janssen has stepped into that role easily and incredibly.

The pressure on the remaining two starters is looking like it may be too much for them. For young Alvarez this isn't a surprise, but Romero should be better than that.

What more can I say? If we don't get some healthy pitching up front, call this season done by August.

Maybe Hutchinson and Morrow are back by then.  Drabek and Litsch are gone for the season. McGowan? Who knows. In Anthopoulos we trust.

At least the games have been largely entertaining.


But the Leafs... oh boy. My Leafs.

Here's the thing - a Nash, or Parise, or Jagr wouldn't help this team. They're not what they need. Also, they do nothing to make the team attractive to other players. We need a centre. Is there one? Not really. If there was, we don't have much to offer for one. Getting Van Riemsdyk is nice, especially at the cost of Schenn. But he's not fixing anything.

We need goaltending. Maybe Reimer comes back healthy and confident. Maybe Scrivens is ready for the bigs. Maybe nobody gets clocked in the head 8 games in and loses their season. That's a lot of maybes.

Luongo. I don't give a rat's ass if he wants to come here. That's the sort of player the team needs - a proven goalie is a sign to other players that Toronto is serious. That they have someone who can win and steal games for them. That they'll at least make the playoffs. It hides defensive deficiencies. He gives the forwards more freedom. He attracts interest. He's not going to win the Cup on his own, but if the Blue and White see more than 82 games, he'll be a hero to the city.

Will he end up here? I doubt it. Gardiner isn't going anywhere, and that's who everyone wants. If Burke can fool Vancouver into taking a Kadri, or some draft picks, or Komisarek, or some other combination of "potential" and crap, then it's a steal. Of course, Luuuuu has to give up on living in Florida for a few more years for that to happen.

Of course, he Bobby does go the Panthers, Theodore wouldn't look too bad in a platoon with Reimer. Not ideal, but at least proven.

No... my prediction for who the Leafs get? Jason Arnott. He's the typical Leafs free agent grab.

Recognizable name, past his prime, and will get paid more for longer by the Leafs than elsewhere (my guess, $4 mil over 2 seasons), and will do very little to help the team on the whole. Will be brought in as a "leader" and role player. But some people will foolishly think he's a 1st line centre. That or Langkow, but he lacks the cachet and probably won't take the pay hit.

What hurts the most is watching our conference get better while we stand mostly still. The piecemeal approach being employed - a winger here, a 3rd line centre there... that's great when you have core players in all your zones. We have wingers, some decent d-men, a second-line centre, and $12.5 million in cap space.

Hopefully we also have a GM with a trick or two up his sleeve... or a rabbit's foot.

It's The Cup

At no point before the playoffs would I have believed anyone had I been told the LA Kings and Phoenix Coyotes would be fighting for the Western conference finals. Rangers and Devils in the East? That's more believable.

But the Kings? The Coyotes? Amazing. I have to say, LA has impressed me. A whole team effort, tons of scoring, shut-down defence and of course, amazing goaltending. In short, what it takes.

As a Leafs fan, I have an historic reason to not like the Kings. It's hard to overcome, as it was the closest we've come to the finals in my lifetime. But these aren't those Kings. These aren't the Melrose-coached, Gretzky-led Kings of the early 90's. I'll be damned if I'm not finding myself cheering for these guys.

And for the league, I'm kinda cheering for a Rangers-Kings cup.  New York vs Los Angeles? That strikes me as huge. That strikes me as coastal rivalries. Hollywood vs Broadway. I'm hoping it happens. I'm hoping it goes to triple overtime in game seven.

I'm hoping for good hockey.

Play Ball!

Because it has to be said: Leafs can still achieve 3rd worst in the league! C'mon! You can do it!

Okay, Jays again.  Their season kicks off in 15 minutes, and they've gone and brought something to this city we haven't had in a while, sports-wise - hope.

The line last night was "If optimism was all it took to win the World Series, you could have the trophy to Toronto right now."

Of course, optimism doesn't actually get anybody out, or score any runs, so it ain't quite enough to cut it.

And as I've said before - the realist in me knows that we probably aren't seeing much October baseball  this season, but I am looking for some surprises and a bit of a fight for 3rd at the very least. A young team with confidence coming out of spring training can mean a strong start. But more importantly, management and coaching and the players have all realized that they still have to play in June, July, August and September.  Depth is a keyword this year. Depth on the roster, depth on the farm, depth to fill holes created by injuries and under-performance.  Talented guys champing at the bit in AAA, and even AA ball, waiting for their shot.

I've got my ticket for Monday's home opener.  I can't wait.

Because I'll be damned, I'm actually legitimately excited about the Jays again.

Bits

Leafs still suck, our Mayor and his lapdogs are still idiots, and I still have no idea what my final photography project will be.

Leafs - 8-0?? 8-0?????? WHAT. THE. FUCK.

Yah, it's Boston. Yah, they own us. Still 8-0?? You can't throw the whole season in ONE game guys! You have to lose them one at a time! Damned Leafs can't even lose right.

-------

OK Blue Jays!

Brett Lawrie's spring training numbers? 9 games, 23 AB, 5 runs, 14 hits, 6 doubles, 1 triple, 8 RBI, 1 walk, 1 strike out, 5 stolen bases, .609 avg, .625 OBP, .957 SLG!

Out with a groin strain.  Pulled himself from the game. All indications are he's a full-throttle player but a smart kid. Has superstar written all over him.

--------

Hey, let's say you really tied yourself to a failing plan for subways, but your council has all the evidence that supports light rail transit instead, and the citizens of your city are slowly swinging that way because they have brains and can see the evidence.

Do you

A) Provide feasible counter-evidence supporting subways as a better long-term solution, along with at least a bare-bones plan for funding the subway?

B) Enter into an intelligent debate in an attempt to find a workable compromise between the plans.

C) Call the latest commissioned report "hogwash", without any evidence, because it 100% supports LRT development as the best option even when money isn't taken into account. Then have one of your lackey councillors hand out pictures of LRT crashes to the opposition, including pictures of a couple that died in one, considering that some sort of evidence that subways are better.

If you said C, then you may be qualified to be Mayor of Toronto! Actually, no, you aren't qualified, you're an idiot who might get elected by people who were too lazy to spend 5 seconds looking beyond your obviously empty promises.

Remember kids - things crash! You know what crashes more? Cars! Also bikes. And planes. And people running, or walking but not looking where they're going.  Oh, and subways sometimes. Devastatingly so.

---------

Final project is due in a couple weeks for the latest photography class. Subject - whatever the hell I want.  Just make it look purdy.

Except I have no idea what I want to do.  Poker night last semester didn't work as I wanted. So I'm hesitant to set up a whole scene again.

My latest thought was origami.  I have a rather kick-ass Zombiegami book I got for Christmas, with coloured papers and complex designs.  My first attempt from it half worked out, but if I actually started folding when not watching TV, I imagine I could get a nice little paper zombie apocalypse going... a couple set pieces and it could be something interesting.

Yah, I'm liking that more all the time. It's good to type things out.

Sports

Nothing misleading in the title, time once again to talk about my Leafs and my Jays.

Leafs season = dead.  It has been for a couple weeks actually, but now everyone's pretty much admitting it. They've won one game under their new coach, lost their best player for essentially the rest of the season, and have lost all offensive capabilities.

Sure, they're showing improvement defensively, but they can't score. Kessel is struggling, as expected, under Carlyle's direction - the coach has the nerve to try and turn Phil into a two-way player! How dare he try and impose more dimensions on our leading scorer!

Yah, the remaining games are a play-for-your-job exhibition, and try out for a few younger guys.  They also seem to be an acid test for Jonas Gustavsson. He's played all but one game since the coaching change, including back-to-back twice, one of those being a night game followed by an afternoon game. Reimer's one game was a 5-2 loss. The holes are being flagrantly exposed.

So naturally, the fans are giving up here. No, not forever, but between gorgeous weather and terrible play, we're forgetting games are on, or finding better things to do than watch the Buds lose again.  The talk has turned to hopes of a last place finish (although doing worse than Columbus or Edmonton would be incredibly difficult), and a bottom five seems almost assured, so at least we get a shot at the first pick.

Yah, the death rattle of a season that collapsed - playing for last.

Fuck, even Buffalo is ahead of us in the standings. Damn you Vinnay!!

So Jays.

I paid a ton for opening game tickets the other day through StubHub.  Why? Well, because the game's sold out. Opening day always is, especially with Boston in town.

The Jays are a different story than the Leafs, but have parallels.  There are still plenty of question marks on the rebuilding team, but the direction is clear. The team is exciting, and will play fun and entertaining ball this season.  4th place in the AL East is still very likely, but a fight for 3rd is possible.  Or who knows? A few surprises, a bit of maturity, some solid closing relief, and maybe they're fighting for the new wild card spot, which in the AL East usually means fighting for both wild card spots.

Regardless, I'll be sitting with my brother - a huge Jays fan, on opening day and cheering for the boys in blue and white.

Post-Deadline Moves

The Leafs largely stood pat during trade deadline time. A couple small trades that affected the Marlies more than the big team.  I was fine with it. I agree with Burke that you don't dismantle your rebuild to start over.

But with the trade deadline in the rearview, it looks like Burke's got more time on his hands to get other things done.

Like firing Ron Wilson. I was shocked. Not because he didn't deserve it, but because there were only 19 games left and Ron and Brian were BFFs.

In standard Burke fashion, he then brought in another buddy - Randy Carlyle, formerly of the Ducks. I liked the line in one article that said he'd replaced a hard-ass with a harder-ass. Another tough coach, but one with a slightly different gameplan and not much time to implement it.

First game under Carlyle? A win. Whoopee.

17 games, 4 teams to jump, some of them on a hot streak. He has his work cut out for him. The playoffs are still pretty unlikely, but less so than a week ago.  If nothing else, the players should be playing to impress from here out. Look for guys like Komisarek, Steckel, and Schenn to step up their games as they seem to fit into his coaching style more comfortably, and will be rewarded for hard work.

Then, about an hour ago, it was announced that Mikhail Grabovski signed a 5-year contract extension. Our second line centre is now worth $5.5 million a year apparently. On first look my jaw dropped. Figuring him in the $4-4.5 mil range.  But on closer inspection, his stats are right there with Ryan Kesler or Patrice Bergeron, excpet in +/-.  But in this case, a +7 on a -7 club has to be weighed against the much better +/- of Vancouver and Boston.  One could argue he's better than Kesler when you take that into account.  So now $5.5M doesn't seem too out of line, except that he has to prove he's worth it over the next 5 years.

So, $7.6 mil left in cap space next year.  Our only UFA of any interest being Jonas Gustavsson (Joey Crabb is cheap).  Plus a few RFA's that could be worth holding on to.

But what does this do for Lupul's contract? We've got him for one more season at $4.25 mil and he's having a hell of a year. Extend in the off-season? Wait until partway through next to see if he can keep it up? If he can, he's worth $6.5-7M.  Kessel too. Certainly, they're worth more than Dion Phaneuf's $6.5 mil.

Anyway, two big question marks have been removed, providing stability for the remainder of this season. If nothing else, the next dozen and a half games will be used to assess what needs to be addressed in the off-season, and who will be packing their bags. I'd guess that names like Nash and Parise won't be seen on the back of Leafs jerseys though.

Bleeding Blue and White, Turning Red

Fuckin' Leafs.

1-8-1 in the last 10 games. 4 points out of a playoff spot. Only 3 points ahead of BUFFALO? Give me a break.

What a joke.

I agree with not much being done on the trade deadline. Other than a goaltender, no trade would have made a major difference with the club.  But the goaltenders worth anything that were available would have come at far too high a cost for them. When Evgeni Nabokov and Jonathan Bernier are your top options, their prices are going to be inflated.

Nash? Obviously nobody wanted to pay the price for him.

Dustin Brown? Might have been nice, but hardly improves a team fighting for a playoff spot. He's a good addition FOR the playoffs, but not scrambling for them.

The reality is that most deadline signings don't have an effect on the acquiring team until the following season. It takes more than 20 games to find your groove with new teammates and new coaches.

So, nothing was going to get fixed by dismantling the rebuilding effort.

Look, I said before the season started that the playoffs would be a fight. We were as likely to be in 11th as 7th with this team and this division. The emergence of Kessel and Lupul as bona fide stars is welcome, but the death of our secondary scoring, complete inconsistency in goal, and godawful defence has more than countered the upsides. Those last two points have really come home in this stretch. Where before the Leafs could win on top-line scoring alone, the turnovers and bad goals of late are gifting points to opponents.

But that's not the worst of it. What really pisses me off as I've watched this collapse is the lack of energy on the team. It started when they played 4 games in 6 nights a couple weeks back.  The Leafs were DEAD after the first game. They could barely stand up, let alone skate end-to-end by the third period of the second game. By the end of the week I half expected to see them snoozing on the bench.

If you can't play the 2nd half of back-to-back games without looking like your legs are made of wet noodle, then you're sure as shit not going to make it ANYWHERE in the playoffs. Where the fuck is the conditioning?

Outside of Lupul and Brown, are there any players on the team who can go a full 60 minute game?  I wish the whole team was made of clones of these two. Brown can't score, but he's scrapping and banging and shooting to the last second, whether it's 5-0 leafs or 10-0 other guys. Kessel still looks like he should be on a beer-league team, and it shows as the long stretches play out.

I think back to the Pat Burns days, and him running the team hard every single practice. They'd be gasping for breath when the sprints and drills were over. He told them they'd be thankful when they were in overtime in game 7 of a playoff series. That year's team saw a game 7 every round. And more overtimes, double overtimes, and triple overtimes than any team has ever seen. They played hard every damned shift.How the hell is Wilson letting his team look this poorly conditioned?

So now, 19 games left, four points out, 2 teams to climb over, to JUST make the playoffs - the team needs to be shaken up. Firing Wilson at this point serves no purpose. If they miss the playoffs, he's in trouble.  But knowing Burke's loyalty to his guys, I expect you'd see the rest of the coaching staff scrapped first. Goaltending coach Francois Allaire should be the first out the door.  He may be highly regarded, but his method clearly isn't working with what he's got.

At this point, with 9 of the next 11 games on the road, the Leafs need a kick in the collective ass. They'll be away from the (rightfully) booing fans at home, away from the Toronto hockey media circus, and that can't hurt. But they'd better be flying a few Marlies around with them too. Time for Kadri to skate around for a game or two again, give Colborne a shot, why not Carter Ashton? They can't hurt any more than we're hurting. Would it kill them to put Scrivens in net for a game? If nothing else, the enthusiasm from these guys could be a refreshing change right now. The teams hits the ice already beaten now. It's an embarrassment.

I accept rebuilding. In fact, I embrace it for the Leafs. Too many rebuilding efforts on this club have been stopped dead by a playoff run or unexpectedly good season. I'm glad Burke is sticking to his guns. But at this point? We should be fighting for 6th, not 8th.

Baseball Season

No, I'm not giving up on the Leafs' season yet, although after the last 3 games, I've got that ol' familiar feeling called "February for the Leafs".

But, baseball season isn't too far off, and I read some disturbing things about the Jays the other day. Mainly, that the fans are restless.  19 years since the last World Series win, and the fans are restless. Please, add 26 years and then call the Leafs fans.

The concern seems to be in the Jays not trying hard enough for some big names like Prince Fielder and Yu Darvish this off-season. The Jays' explanation? No contracts longer than 5 years. Which is an improvement over the 3-year max back in the halcyon days of the '90s.

Makes some sort of sense. In any sport, 5 years is a long contract.  It's long if the player stinks and you can't dump him. It's long for the player if he has an amazing 5 years and doesn't see a raise while lesser players are raking in salaries commensurate with other teams' payrolls.  We have Bautista for 5 years, and that's looking like a steal.

What these fans want is a contender. I can't blame them. I want one too. But look up and there's the Yankees, Red Sox, and sometimes the Rays in our division. Second place in the AL East usually means the wild card. With the addition of second wild card, the Jays' chances improve tremendously.

But what I feel the fans are missing is what's right in front of their nose - the team we've got. Back in the big days, the Jays WERE the AL All-Star team. Big name free agents, blockbuster trades, rent-a-players down the stretch.  Also, a sold-out Skydome, Major League attendance records being shattered year after year, and teams that couldn't be ignored, despite being up here in the Great White North.

Now? Well, 20,000 is a decent turnout. A sellout is 10,000 less than it used to be. The Jays are a footnote in baseball news, and the fans here are starting to buy into that.  We're not a small market team. Toronto has 2.6 million people, the GTA has 6 million within an hour's drive from the Rogers Centre. Ownership is a company that pulls in over $12 Billion in annual revenue. But nobody's coming out to the games, so they can't validate putting up a $120 million payroll to satisfy a handful of fans. And since Toronto is a hockey town first and foremost, grabbing a Yu Darvish or Prince Fielder won't pack the stands. Hell, Prince would be a better choice because at least then you have a connection to old-school Jay, Cecil.

After all, we had the best pitcher in the Majors in Roy Halladay and couldn't bring in the numbers until he was about to leave, and now when he returns. We have one of the best hitters in the league in Bautista, who broke the all-star voting record, and can't keep all the beer stands open. The only way the people come is if the team starts winning deep into the season. No more of this "1st in April, 4th in September" crap.  We need to be fighting for 1st in August, if not running away with it. We need the team to be dominating the headlines in the dog days of summer. We need a winner.

And rushing that now, when Anthopoulos is doing yeoman's work on rebuilding, would mean a quick death.

Sure, there are holes. That's what rebuilding is about. You see what you've got, and fill in the gaps. Coming up is a prime time to finish the launch pad.

Bautista has proven himself.
Romero is our ace.

Does a Darvish help? Maybe. Of course, he hasn't played a lick in the Majors yet. Maybe he gets 18-20 wins. Maybe. After all, we play the Yankees, Sox, or Rays seemingly every other series. That replaces 6 wins from one of our 3-5 starters, so a net gain of 12-14 wins. Or the wild card spot.  Or maybe he's only solid in this division and pulls under 15 wins... also known as still 4th place.

But can't we get those wins elsewhere? Morrow is a strikeout machine behind Romero. Cecil and Alvarez pretty much have 3 and 4 locked up in the rotation, and Alvarez could do some damage with a full season.  Does McGowan make it back to be #5? Does he steal #2? Is Drabek mature enough to get in there? Can Arencibia follow up a fantastic rookie campaign in 2012? He's got Mathis to mentor him, and d'Arnaud coming up the ranks to light a fire. Escobar has become a solid shortstop when nobody was looking.

What about the close games? Oh, Cordero and Santos are the setup man and closer for this year, new to the team and getting on in years, but we don't want them forever, we just need them to fill their roles. Neither is going to overpower, but I'm thinking Santos has a pretty good ground ball crew behind him. They add to the veteran presence that is slowly being installed behind the young guns to provide experience, mentorship, and calm. If we get some protection behind Bautista, there's no telling where his numbers go.


Which brings me to Brett Lawrie. A Canadian boy who has "5-tools" bandied about him all the time. All I can say is that he has superstar written all over him. Sitting 20 rows behind home plate I watched this guy step up to bat and was blown away. Intensity radiated off him, and the crowd was louder than I've heard it in a long time. The kid's young, but has shown every bit of willingness to do what's asked.I watched him with the bases loaded, every muscle tensed, his bat quivering.  I turned to the guy next to me and said, "this is going out or he's striking out in 3 pitches."  1st pitch - ball. I was shocked this young guy had the wherewithal to hold off. Then he cranked it out of the park for the Grand Slam. The roof blew off the place in a nothing game with tons of empty seats. If he keeps his head in check, he's going places.  And he's the type of player who will bring the city along with him.

Then there's the talk of Votto. Some think it's a foregone conclusion that he'll be here in the next couple years. A Toronto native. An established powerhouse. And again, exactly the type of player this city will pay heed to. He'd be a good fit, and it's a move I'd keep an eye on.  Probably not this season though.

There's plenty of weak spots still - middle relief is better but still a question mark. Only two pitchers last year saw double-digit wins. Can Lind finally be consistent? Can Rasmus get his head screwed on the right way? Will Snider even sniff the bigs again? Can the team get a damned batting average? .249 is pathetic, and only Bautista was over .300.  The right side of the infield could use a bit of spackle too.

I said .500 would make me happy last year. The Jays obliged and nailed that number. This year I expect some surprises, and assuming general good health, a better record. They aren't winning the division this year.They might be fighting for a wild card spot. At the very least, I expect the Jays will have the adjective "surprising" put in front of them more than a few times.

Also, going back to the old logo is a nice touch. It's far better than everything since.

As Expected

For 12 seasons he played in the relative obscurity of Toronto. You know, the only MLB team outside of the US? The only team to win the World Series outside of the US? (back-to-back). The team that shattered attendance records for three straight years. The team that nobody outside of Canada seems to realize exists.

His second game in the majors, the last of the 1998 season, he threw a no-hitter into the 9th with two outs.

After coming back in 2002, after rebuilding his game in the minors, Roy "Doc" Halladay showed every one of the dwindling Blue Jays fans that he was, without a doubt, the best damned pitcher in the majors.

2003 was his first Cy Young year. 22-7.

He showed time and again that he is almost always a lock for a complete game. He's thrown more than most TEAMS in the span of his career. He rivaled Dave Stieb in Toronto when it came to near-misses with no-hitters. And the fans loved him.

And nobody outside of the city seemed to care. They talked of pretenders to the throne like CC Sabathia and Johan Santana as the "best pitchers in baseball". We knew better.

Freak injuries, no run support, shitty relief pitching (which I have no doubt is what lead to him pitching so deep so many times) - they all robbed him of seasons that would have demolished the competition. There is no doubt in any Jays fan's mind that Doc should have at least 3 or 4 Cy Youngs on his mantle by now (I think 6, but will discount one for the insane 2008 Cliff Lee had). If he was playing on better teams, or dodged a ball to the leg, he would have them.

But outside of the baseball obsessive, he seemed ignored. Right up until word got out that he could be traded. Suddenly, every team in the majors paid attention. Their fans scrambled to see the stats, but the stats lacked the nuances that the fans here knew. He was better than you thought. He was more than workhorse. He was the closest thing to a guaranteed win you could get.

And now, with the 20th perfect game in Major League history, the second no-hitter in playoff history, a lock for the NL Cy Young, and his first season under the real scrutiny of baseball media, Doc has shown everyone else what we already knew - he's the best.

And at 33, with the training and mentality he has, he might end up being the best ever.

Here's hoping that Cooperstown sticks a Jays hat on his head when he gets inducted.

Good job Doc. I dare you to do it again, but with one less walk.

Jays Early Season - Again

Well here we are at the end of May, and once again, the Blue Jays are "surprising". They shouldn't be, as they have a lineup that on paper should hit a ton, and the pitching was questionable due to its youth. But the pitchers have so far been pretty decent, and the hitters are actually doing what they're supposed to. I mean, Vernon Wells is having his best start in recent memory... finally.

And for all that, the Jays are in 3rd in the AL East, with a .563 record. 6 games back of the Rays, 1 back of the Yankees for 2nd, and a half game up on the Bosox.

In the AL Central, they'd be 1 game back of 1st.

In the AL west, they'd be tied for 1st.

NL East? 1 game back. NL Central? 3-way tie for 1st. NL west? 1.5 games back.

Not that anyone's talking about them. Even here in Toronto, where attendance is abysmal.

Major Leagues leader in homers? Toronto's Jose Bautista with 15. Bautista's also 4th in RBIs with 39... 3 back of 1st. Vernon Wells is in the top 10 in both categories in the AL.

Ricky Romero has 72 strikeouts for the 2nd most in the majors, only 3 back of the leader.

Alex Gonzalez and Vernon Wells are 1 and 2 for doubles in the AL (3 and 5 in the majors). With Fred Lewis putting 3 Jays in the top 10 in the AL.

Jays lead the MAJORS in slugging percentage, home runs (by 14 homers), doubles (by 10), RBIs, total bases (by 38), runs, and at bats. The pitchers are leading the league in strikeouts.

By any measure, that's a powerhouse.

Too bad their batting average and ERA stink.

Once again, the only team in Canada is playing exciting baseball to start off the season. In any other division, they're either in first or fighting for it. But in the most competitive 6th of baseball, they're already 6 games back and can't drum up interest from the fans.

So how do you keep up the team's interest in this case? "Hey, you guys are doing GREAT! Too bad it won't amount to anything against the Yankees and Rays and Sox. Or that nobody in the city gives a shit." If they can maintain this pace through the season, then they very well might get the attention of some people here. But it would suck if they have a fantastic season, only to be overshadowed by two other teams having slightly better ones.

A Changing of Seasons

Hey, remember when hockey was totally awesome and amazing and fun? It was a couple weeks ago at the Olympics.

But here in Toronto, we all knew that The Leafs would be returning and we'd get disappointing, boring, uneventful, meaningless games again.

Well, they're meaningless, but they're also surprisingly fun.

The team is a bunch of kids now. Most of the veteran players have been dumped to other teams for youth and late-round draft picks. So now the guys like Bozak, Hanson, and Caputi are getting lots of ice time with no pressure. What better position to be in for players who would be in the minors for any other team? You get to play in the NHL, and nobody cares if you stink up the joint for the next 15 games? Okay, so they care, because you're basically playing for your spot on next year's roster. But the team isn't about to go out and land a bevy of high-priced free agents, and there isn't a lot left here to trade with. So if you've got any talent and work ethic, you've got a good chance of cracking the squad. So they're having fun, working their butts off, and actually winning some games.

A bunch of overtime wins of late have shown that a little determination can go a long way. The Leafs aren't going to see the playoffs this year, but they could have some fun in the meantime.

Which leads to the next season - baseball. The Jays have their home opener in less than a month. Here's another team that nothing is expected of in Toronto. Nobody's making proclamations of a wild card spot or big surprises. The optimism stops at which players might make a comeback, or have a good year, or that exciting baseball may be played.

It's a team that could surprise. We've still got a pretty strong rotation of young arms, although who knows what our relief situation could look like. Our lineup has some pretty big hitters in it, and there's always the possibility of Vernon Wells actually earning his exorbitant paycheque. Are they the Yankees or Red Sox? Hell no. but this is a team that's capable of throwing together some decent streaks, putting up some good numbers, and generally making a few hours at the 'Dome worthwhile. Too bad the fans in Toronto can't appreciate the game for the game's sake, and only show up if they think the team can contend.

I suppose there's the Raptors too. 6th place in the East, although really tied for the last playoff spot. The could be good for a round or two of those games that some teams play after the regular season... whatever those are called. Playofs or something? It's been a while since we've seen any of those in this town.

Regardless, as the season on the ice winds to a close, I'm looking forward to seeing that green of the diamond again.

Climax

In studies, by those who study such things, it's been found that just before an orgasm, muscles tense up, the brain receives pain signals, and the body spasms accordingly. This infinitesimal moment of pain allows the climax to seem even greater than it could from the elevated levels of pleasure already being experienced.

Canada came all over itself today.

Sitting in front of the TV, surrounded by dozens of fans in the bar, hundreds in the building, millions in the city, and tens of millions in the country, we all tensed in pain with but a handful of seconds left in regulation time. Team USA had scored the tying goal against the unbelievable Roberto Luongo and Team Canada. Suddenly, victory was seriously in question. Our 14th gold medal, and many would argue the most important, was now going to be decided in overtime, or worse... a shootout.

A pall fell over crowds from one coast to the other. Silence enveloped the country. Shock, awe, and pure disbelief stretched across our home and native land.

Then they came back on the ice. 4-on-4. And with them came hope. This was OUR team, at OUR games, and OUR sport. These were the best of the best on the ice. We could do this. We WOULD do this. 33 million fans started pounding tables, clapping hands, and cheering. Our hearts started to beat as one. The tension was still there, but now, instead of pain, it was anticipation.

And then, just over 7 minutes into the extra period, our superstar, Sidney Crosby, FINALLY scored. When it mattered most, the Kid came through. And he got the puck from the heart and soul of the team in Jarome Iginla. The eruption that occurred was 10x what it would have been had the clock just run down 20 minutes earlier.

And once we were all spent and collapsed in relaxed, joyful heap? It dawned on us that the whole damn thing was pretty good. Not just the amazing game that had transpired, nor the hockey tournament, but the entire games. We got that "first gold on home soil" thing out of the way early, and while our medal pace was slow at first, it picked up quickly in the second week. Sure, we didn't get the most medals in the game, as had been hoped by the "Own the Podium" group, but we got more than we've ever had. We broke the record for most gold medals by ANY country in the Winter Games. 14 golds, 26 medals, for a country of 33 million. If anyone can say that isn't a success, you can tell them I said they're a moron. Oh, and so much of that came after the pain of the first week, where disappointing finishes put us far off track for the success we desired. Again, making the wins that much sweeter.

I'm biased, sure, but this was the best games ever. Delays and glitches and weather happen everywhere. They got through them. And while there was tragedy, there was joy as well. The good greatly outweighed the bad.

And people watched. More than expected. More than hoped. Something about all this captured the attention of people all over the world. Canada was on display to the world, and I, for one, think they put on a hell of a show.

For those who aren't in this country, you can't possibly understand the effect it's had here. There's a sense of nationalism that has been missing for years. It stretches across the country in a way that I haven't seen before. Canadians realized it was okay to say that we're awesome. To brag about our accomplishments. To want MORE wins and MORE success. And to be PISSED OFF when we don't get it. Will it stick around? Definitely not at full force, but I'm sure it will constantly be bubbling just below the surface. It will be seen in the cracked smiles that appear when reminders of these last two weeks are encountered. And 4 years from now in Russia, it will erupt once again. Because now we know what we can accomplish, and looking at all those 4th and 5th place finishes will remind us that we can get way, way more.

These Olympics are a watershed moment for Canada. At a time when Canadians needed to be reminded who they were and how connected we are, this fueled a pride and patriotism unheard of in this Great White North.

It was so good, we'll be coming back for more. World, you're on notice.