Free Agent Frenzy!

They call it a frenzy because they can't think of other F words that work. Fustercluck?

It's free agent day in the NHL. Lots of players get overpaid and everyone gets to complain about their team. Man, hockey is truly the sport that never has an off-season.

The Leafs managed to re-sign their #1 Centre, Tyler Bozak. They also picked up David Clarkson, a power winger, Toronto native, and one-time 30-goal scorer. Yesterday they dumped Grabovski to free up some money. I like Grabo. He'll do fine wherever he lands.

So, as is typical in Hogtown, the Leafs fans are bitching about the signings.

First, Clarkson - 7 years and $5.25m/yr. The general consensus is that 7 years is a long contract. Especially in Leafs land. I agree. But those extra 2 years are what it takes to get the top UFA this season. Hell, $5.25 million is a bargain in this market. The Leafs aren't looking for a 30-goal scorer in him either. 15-20 goals and his tough play will be enough to make fans happy. Lay down some hits. Get knocked down and jump back up. Occasionally put the puck in the net when it matters, and he'll be loved. But of course, the fans are jumping on this as a terrible overpayment for a mediocre player who will never pay off. He's actually exactly what the Leafs like and the fans cheer for. Sigh.

Remember, these are the fans that think Phil Kessel is awful. Because they're idiots.

Which leads to Kessel's buddy - Tyler Bozak. They were dubbed Bert & Ernie in the locker room. They live together (Bozak didn't have an apartment and the season was short, so Phil offered him a spare room.). They've played on the same line for 2.5 seasons now. It's called chemistry. It's what makes a team.

And $4.2 million for 5 years is just fine. It's a small overpayment for the guy, but hardly ridiculous. But the knock on Bozie is that he's not really a first-line centre. He doesn't have the size, or the points apparently.

Fuck that.

I've covered this before. The top-line centres that had better numbers than Bozak tended to have names that will be in the hall of fame one day, or played with  a pair of guys who sit atop every scoring category. And guess what? None of them were available. So if you lose Bozak, you end up hoping Kadri is ready to play every day on the first line. He may not be there yet.

Bozak had a decent faceoff percentage. He made plays happen. And he ALWAYS knows where his linemates are. He took every damned defensive zone faceoff.  He was a major key to the Leafs getting to game 7 in the first round, and his absence was a possible reason why they couldn't get to round 2.

Sure, I'd love a Crosby or Staal or Stamkos or Datsyuk, Getzlaf, or Toews on our top line. Ain't gonna happen. So I'm happy with a solid all-around 2-way player with some heart and a desire to play for my team any day. Leave it to Kessel, JVR, Lupul, and Kadri to rack up the points. Or hell, maybe Bozak's one of those guys who will actually try and be worthy of his contract and prove all the naysayers wrong. He stepped it up in the playoffs when the "we lack a centre" talk was getting louder, here's to a career year in 2013-2014.

So he doesn't fit in the big #1 Centre mould?  So what? Change the game. He's a playmaker who can win faceoffs. With a top-10 scorer on his wing that likes playing with him. If a team can't make that work, then the coach has issues. If the fans can't see past the "he's not 1st line centre" mantra, then they should open their eyes, because guess what? He's ours.

$4.2m/year for 5 years? I can live with that.

Divided Attention

Two unimaginable games. Back-to-back victories over the Bruins. Somehow, The Leafs, MY Leafs, were in game 7, with all the momentum their way.

And I was heading uptown to play free poker in a bar with poorly placed televisions. My Leafs jersey (Clark 17, C, Winter Classic) was on, and a Tim Hortons cup was in my hand as I boarded the subway. I exchanged nods with the random stranger in a Leafs jersey sitting across from me. I looked at the other jerseys around me. They all got off at Union station, a short underground walk to the Air Canada Centre and Maple Leaf Square. I stayed on the train.

It was day 2 of the main event after all. I didn't play to get here for nothing.

Up the stairs I wandered, got my seat assignment, and listened to the welcome and game changes for this stage of play. I was table 6, downstairs, away from the rest of the action. Seat 1 was obstructed view of the TV in the opposite corner. It would suffice.

7pm saw the cards in the air and the puck dropped.

20,000 chips in front of me. 20,000 fans in their seats.

I called a few small raises with hands meant to catch. They didn't. I was more interested in the game on the TV than the game I was playing. Boston scored. The bar groaned. I said it was still early. I counted my chips and was down 10%. It was still early.

Franson scored. The bar erupted in cheers. My chips hadn't changed much.

We broke for dinner, I was down 5%, Leafs were tied at the beginning of the second.

Franson scored again, 2-1, happy bar. My grilled chicken caesar wrap with tasteless fries was served.

Back to the game, back to watching the game. I make a huge error. I flip the 5k chip off the top of my stack instead of taking the 500 from the bottom, plus a couple 100s. 5.2k pre-flop raise in the hijack instead of 700 at the 100/200/25. Pocket nines. The table pauses, unsure how to react. Folds to the small blind, who tanks and then calls. Big blind is in pain, wanting to take part, but now extra scared by the call. He folds.

Flop comes K99. Dem's quads. SB thinks and bets 5.1k into the 10.8k pot. He has less than 10k behind, I have around 14k. I push, figuring he either can't get away or has AA, AK, or KK and won't leave. He calls and flips over TT for the runner-runner quads draw. It doesn't come and I find myself with around 38k, having doubled my stack.

Third period starts and Kessel scores. 3-1 Leafs. Table lead me.

Kadri scores. 4-1 Leafs, nothings changed at the table, but most of us are cheering and watching the TV anyway.

Bruins get one back, I comment that I HATE 2 goal leads because they create a false sense of security. Two idiots at the table comment that it's okay, because there's no way Boston scores two goals in 10 minutes. The Leafs will shut them down. I politely inform them to keep their traps shut.

Play continues both on the ice and at the table. My chips stay static, my hands inconsequential.

Boston scores again, after my guys can't pot an empty-netter. We can't see how much time is on the clock due to obstructing wall. I check my apps and see 1:22 left. Sonofabitch.Same morons as before tell us not to worry, I contemplate defenestration, even if it's only onto the patio.

Tied game. I tweet one word, but use a lot of capital letters and "U"s.

We colour up and the table breaks to join the rest of the tournament upstairs. Overtime is starting. I hope nothing happens until I get to my new seat.

One TV in the corner, but I have a better view than before. The upstairs guys are a few minutes behind us, and are still colouring up the small chips. I lean against a bar rail and try to keep my stomach from churning. 3 games of momentum completely switched around. 3 minutes of unfortunate play exposing the inexperience of a young team. Gasps and almost cheers and texts and tweets and nerves and pain and anticipation all roiling around, and I still have a tournament to play.

Bergeron scores for Boston, and I pound on the rail and hang my head. The bar empties out. Play resumes. It's suddenly very hot under my Jersey, so I hang it on my chair. Börje Salming was dealing, now it's just a guy named Phil who looks about as thrilled as I am. I fold hands and pay no attention to the table. I tweet and text and support my forehead with my hand as I toss out antes.

A Canadian is returning from space and landing in the sea in Kazakhstan, contained in a sardine tin with two other astronauts. He's inspired hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people over the past 5 months with videos and photos and songs and a goofy and ultimately Canadian sense of humour. He's cheered the Leafs the whole time. He's watched the games a day behind, asking 750,000 people not to spoil the outcomes for him. He was hurtling towards the Earth and experiencing forces I never will as the boys in Blue and White were choking on youth and anxiety. I hope he doesn't ask what the score is until he's out of the capsule. I'm incredibly proud of our representative to the world while simultaneously sad about a hockey game.

I start paying attention to the game. The dealer/player is raking in a big pile of big chips. He's a good player with the apparent table lead, and two to my left. This could take some work. I see nothing particularly worthwhile, but steal some blinds and antes. I fold more than I call, but my 29k in chips is rapidly depreciating as the seconds tick by.

A 5k chip is found under the table. Everyone agrees it's probably the dealer's from his big hand. Tournament director declares it a dead chip as it had been there for a while. Dealer tilts. Leafs loss was probably the instigator, chip is the catalyst.


Parachutes are open and the Soyuz is on screen. All systems look good. I watch players push and survive. I keep getting change for my antes and blinds.

Dealer, still tilting slams down a call against two all-ins. His KJs catches a J on the river and knocks them both out. Still a roiling boil under the lid.

Splashdown. I see QTd with no action ahead of me. I raise and get only the BB calling. Q6T on the flop, BB bets, I push, BB calls. K6 is no good against my two pair, and I double up to a useable stack.

Next hand see QTs, and again, no action before me. I raise again, and get called by the simmering dealer. Everyone else folds. Flop comes all spades, all lower than my T. I bet just under the pot. My opponent tanks with an incredibly deep scowl on his brow. He almost starts talking to himself. I get a death stare and blink. He calls. Flop is a red card. I push. He calls and says, "You have a flush?" "Yup." "I knew it." He shows AJd, and maybe caught a pair on the river. I somehow had him barely covered after my last win. He calls over the floor and demands that he be relieved NOW. Deals one more hand. They break the table to let him get away. I say nothing. A "good game" sounds insulting in my mind, so I keep it to myself.

I count as I rack up for the move - 120k. Chip lead.  Commander Hadfield is out of the capsule, last of the three. All safe and sound and getting used to gravity while looking forward to a hot shower and toilets that flush. I imagine a flame-grilled steak wouldn't suck either. Our achievements so far are not comparable, although I'm okay with a camera.

New table is uneventful. CBC continues in the background, but it's nothing of interest anymore. We break to colour up the 100's and we are 5 away from breaking for the day, or 23 minutes, whichever comes first.

Shortly upon return, I'm moved for the final time. Best view of the TV all night, nothing good on. As I unrack my chips, the classic "ah, here to distribute the wealth" line is quipped. I retort with "no, I'm on a mission of consolidation so they have less bags to worry about tomorrow." Then I steal the blinds and antes to show that I'm serious.

I get a walk in the BB a bit later, but otherwise don't play as stacks drop off. 3 left. 2. On the bubble and hand-for-hand between the two tables.

A medium stack raises from the button. The BB pushes all-in. They're close. Button calls quickly with AKd. BB shows QJh. The board plays out with low cards, but a third heart on the river. AK doesn't see it and assume he won. Comments that he feels bad, but thinks the BB has him covered, so the BB is still around for tomorrow. Dealer counts, and he's right - the BB does have him covered, so the button is out. He doesn't understand. The whole table points out the flush. AK feels like a fool and announces he's the bubble and out, wishes everyone good luck, and scampers out.

On his way, the floor lets him know he's actually out 16th, as an all-in went out at the other table just before him. The result doesn't change, but Day 3 is now 15 players instead of 16, and the guy gets to feel worse on his way home.

Chips are bagged, photos are taken, handshakes and congratulations are offered all around. When all is said and done, I'm still chip leader with 124k, ahead of the 101.5k second place before it drops to 80's and 50's and lower. 935,000 chips in play, 62k average stack. 3000/6000/500 8-handed to start today, 20 minutes a level.

And the Blue Jays will be on in the background.

A Learning Experience

I'll keep telling myself it's not over. That it's just a 3-game win streak. One game at a time. Hope reigns eternal in Leafland.

But my Leafs are down 3 games to 1 against the Bruins. This isn't actually unexpected. Once the matchups were known, the jokes flew. "I'll enjoy all 3 games" was a popular one. The reality is that the Leafs have had a hard time with Boston for a long time. They're a solid, hard-nosed, suffocating team with great chemistry built from years of playing together. The Leafs are a young team with limited experience that's really only had half a season to get to know each other and their coach.

Still, my guys have played some great hockey, and even with reality in the back of my mind, I want to believe. I sat on my couch with my Clark jersey and Leafs cap on. I reminded myself to breathe time and again. I scared the cats. I'm sure I scared the neighbours. And in the end, I nearly collapsed with Boston's overtime goal. Krejci Temple-of-Doomed my heart out of my chest with his hat trick.

If it had been a blowout, I would have sighed. But this was sudden death overtime. This was an evenly-matched game. This was the Leafs showing great pressure, hitting posts, and Rask somehow stopping them time and again. This was all kinds of anticipation and joy crushed in an instant. Hell, I even thought O'Byrne had knocked the puck off Krejci's stick at the last second. It hurt.

But, like this series, like this whole season, this is a learning experience for my team. Of the whole team, only 9 guys have ever seen the playoffs before. That's some serious inexperience. Carlyle can preach and teach and drill, but until these kids see what happens when they don't listen, they won't learn. This is the school of hard knocks for them.

Kadri's learned that he can't be a fucking superstar if it means he'll give away the puck.

Reimer's learning that any weakness will be exploited, and that he has to see through bodies.

Gardiner is starting to show why he could be a great offensive defenceman with some more seasoning and maturity.

Grabovski's showing that all he's ever wanted is the chance to play in the second season.

Lupul and Kessel are showing great on-ice leadership.

And Phaneuf has been reminded that high-risk plays in playoff overtimes are fucking idiotic.

They're learning. It's apparent every single game. On Friday they get another lesson, and their hardest test yet - how to face elimination, and how to do it in a hostile environment. This will be mentally hard on them. The one-game-at-a-time belief will HAVE to sink in for them to have a chance. They'll have to remember every lesson, and summon every ounce of skill and discipline. And if, by some chance, they find themselves in a game 7? They can't get cocky.

But in the more likely event that I won't be distracted during my Monday night poker tournament, they'll have to take these lessons home with them. When they come back to training camp next season they'll have to remember everything they've learned and be ready to build on it. Carlyle's messages will mean more. They'll have the weight of experience behind them. They'll be prefaced with "remember when you did this in the Boston series?" The roar of the crowd will still be in their hearts, the taste of the playoffs in their mouths. The expectations of Leaf Nation will sit heavier on their shoulders. They'll have war stories between them, bonds made stronger by crushing hits and heartbreaking goals.

And they'll only get better.

Pressureless Playoffs

Nine years.

2004.

Lots of things have changed since then, but this isn't about that.

This is about relaxation. This is about relief. This is about my Leafs being back in the playoffs.

They clinched on Saturday. Their seed is still up for debate, but 5th place vs the Habs looks likely. Which, in reality, is about the most ideal matchup possible this year. Oh, the Leafs and Canadiens, one of the greatest rivalries in all sports, haven't met in the playoffs since 1979.

Even though it's been nine years since the Buds were last wearing skates in May, and 34 years since they saw the bleu, blanc, et rouge across the ice from them, there's no pressure here.

Because let's be honest -- they shouldn't even be here.

They got outshot 50-22 in their last game, and won 4-1.

They're 25-15-5, with no shootout wins. They were outshot in TWENTY of those 25 wins. That's obviously 1st in the league for that stat. They've been outshot 1461-1202, a 259 shot differential. The ONLY team with a worse diff is Edmonton, and they're in the shitter. It's been more than a decade since a team saw the playoffs with a ratio this bad.

They also lead the league in blocked shots. So in the ol' pucks directed towards the net concept - they're terrible.

Penalties - they're 2nd in penalty minutes, and 1st in majors. This is a team that likes to beat your team up. They get away with it because they also happen to have the 3rd best penalty killing unit in the league. Oh, and they also have more hits than anyone else by a mile. Truculence and aggression and all that.

Shooting percentages are out of whack. Kadri is shooting 18.6% and leads the team in goals. Bozak is shooting 19.7%, JVR 13.3%, Lupul, who everyone in Toronto now agrees is the best player on the ice when he's healthy, is shooting 27%! For perspective, Crosby's shooting percentage is 12.1%, Stamkos is 19%, and Ovechkin is 14.2%.

In fact, all the fancy stats say the Leafs are in an unsustainable season. Good thing it was only 48 games then. The question becomes - can they carry this unexpected success into the playoffs?

Maybe.

Lupul is back (again, again), and one would think relatively fresh with only 13 games played this season. He hasn't been stellar in his 3 games post-concussion, but he does have two goals in there. One from a hard drive to the net, the next from a stolen puck and mini break. Kadri has been in a slump since March, but got a flukey goal on Saturday, which may get the monkey off his tiny baby-faced back. Kessel has been quietly been playing the best overall hockey of his career all season, despite whining from the fans who used to bitch about how one-dimensional he was. Phaneuf has played his best season as a Leaf, showing maturity and eating up all kinds of minutes.

Then there's Reimer. Since the trade deadline he's basically said "Roberto Who? Mikka what?" with his play. 2.12 GAA, .939 SV % in April. The guy is standing on his head, and the players around his net are helping him look even better. Since he re-learned how to catch, he's been nearly unbeatable. A hot goalie heading into the playoffs? Leading a team with 4 legitimate offensive threats across two lines, and a whole team willing to block your shots and crush you into the boards? Yah, I'll take that. Fancy stats be damned.

The playoffs are a different brand of hockey. They're tougher. There's no quarter given. Every game is a must-win. The pressure starts at 10 and ratchets up with each round. And the reality is - Leafs fans are just happy to be there. Everything else is gravy right now. The team knows it. They're loose. They're happy. They have a coach that will whip them into the right mindset if they falter. This could be fun.

Besides, if my guys somehow, against all reason, miraculously go all the way? It won't count to anyone outside of Toronto, after all, it wasn't a real season.

Shut Up About the Goaltending

Since last season (and honestly, for a number of seasons), the cry has been that the Leafs need a bona fide goalie. Montreal has Price, Calgary has Kiprusoff, New Jersey has Brodeur, Pittsburgh has Fleury, etc.. The Leafs have Reimer and Scrivens. We haven't had a legit #1 since Belfour at the tail end of his career.

Reimer raised eyebrows a couple seasons back, covering when Gustavsson and Giguere were having issues. He did so well, he became the starter to finish the season in an attempt to get the Leafs into the playoffs. He was the #1 goalie last season, started strong, and then went down with "concussion-like symptoms". He returned before he was 100% and didn't play the same. Throw in some serious head-fucking by goaltending "guru" François Allaire, who only knows one style, and "Optimus Reim" was looking like he was about done.

Allaire's gone. Reimer is healthy. I had faith that he could return to form. I seemed to be alone.

Calls for Luongo from Vancouver were loud. Kadri and Bozak for Roberto! Gardiner can be traded! Kessel for Bobby Lu! Give me a break.

But still, the fans and the papers go on and on about Toronto's need for an established goaltender. Apparently they're all brain dead.

Alright, maybe a veteran PRESENCE would help. Like Giguere was, or Cujo's brief second stint. Someone who can tell the younger guys how to prepare, how to deal with the day to day. But you know what? You don't need someone who dresses every night for that. You need a guy on staff, not the roster. See if you can grab Joseph from his Kingston Frontenacs goaltending coach gig. Hell, some nights even bringing Johnny Bower into the locker room for a pep talk would probably be enough.

Because Reimer and Scrivens are doing just fine.

Stats:

Reimer: 20 Starts, 2.52 GAA, .920 SV %, 13-4-4
Scrivens: 16 Starts,  2.59 GAA, .918 SV %, 7-8-0
Average: 2.56 GAA, .919 SV%

Among goalies who have started 16 or more games: Reimer is 19th, and Scrivens 21st out of 33. Not great, but not terrible. Especially if you keep in mind that the Leafs score 3.11 goals per game (4th in the league behind Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Tampa), that's over half a goal/game of room to play with.

Oh, but the Leafs give up a lot of shots. A ton. 31.8/game - 4th worst in the league. So those save percentages? Reimer is 9th, Scrivens 13th. Again - goalies with 16 or more starts.

Wins are relatively easy to rank. Toronto is 7th overall in the league in wins.

But wins/start? Reimer is 6th. Scrivens? A far less impressive 26th.

So, with all that info out there. The question becomes - who the hell are people looking for?

Obviously the franchise goalies aren't going anywhere, so the Prices and Fleurys can be ignored. Also, any team in the playoff hunt isn't going to part with their starter, so guys like Backstrom or Rask are going anywhere. Also forget anyone in the East helping the Leafs. So Ottawa ain't sending Bishop our way.

So who does that leave? Let's go with stats.

GAA, better than Reimer and theoretically possible: Roberto Luongo? Ray Emery? One of Anaheim's tenders? Yah... out of those, Luongo is the only one actually available.

Better than Reimer in SV %? Hrmm... nobody. Not a one. Anderson is the only goaltender who would be worth the upgrade (.952), and he's not moving from the Senators, plus he's been injured for half the season. Seriously, even Crawford has only a .005 better %. It's a tight group at the top. Oh, and Luongo? .904 - 28th.

How about wins/games started?  Unless Chicago's got Emery on the block or Anaheim wants to give up Fasth for a 3rd round pick. Not much out there. Luongo? Has won exactly half his starts vs Reimer's 65%, which as stated, is 6th in the league.

Actually, Emery keeps popping up. He's about the same at SV% as Reimer, and beats him in the other two categories I'm looking at. Except he was a head case in Ottawa, bounced around after that, is having a career season, and plays for CHICAGO. All strikes against his being worth anything away from that team. Besides, the Hawks aren't sending him anywhere.

Oh, one other - Tomas Vokoun. Better in every category (2.33, .922, 77%), and he's Fleury's backup. Consistent SV%, 2nd best year for his GAA. Oh, but also 36 years old. Of course, he's not an every day guy, is in the same conference, and is exactly the kind of backup you want for a playoff run. So again, not going anywhere, and not worth particularly much.

So that's a long way of saying there's not much out there. Bernier from the Kings? Sure, except how is he a more proven variable than Reimer? 9 starts this season? His numbers are generally better, and he's definitely an upgrade over Scrivens, but he's not a proven starter, and stepping into Toronto for a hockey player is like playing for the Yankees in baseball - you are in a media maelstrom. Does LA's backup have the mental toughness for that? Do you take that chance?

Reality is harsh. Toronto's goaltending may not be top-tier. For as good a tandem as they are, our guys don't offer the consistent backbone of a Fleury or Price or Rask or Crawford or Miller. But there also aren't any of those guys out there to be had for Toronto. Sure, there are intangibles in a bona fide starter that don't show up on stats sheets, but with 12 games left in the season? A playoff spot FINALLY looking realistic? Frankly, no change between the pipes is worth it right now. We can revisit in the off-season.

Leafs Update

Since my last post:

- Kostka gets a break in the press box and Liles plays (called it)
- Lupul back Saturday
- Steckel traded to Anaheim for Ryan Lasch and a 7th rounder in 2014 (I'll take a "called it" on that too)
- 4th loss in a row, unbelievably key game against Winnipeg on Saturday

Doesn't look like Lupul will start on the 1st line. No surprise there. 3rd with Kadri and Kulemin looking likely, with Frattin and MacArthur on the 2nd with Grabo. 1st unchanged with Bozak, Kessel, and JVR.

Know what? That's a helluva set of lines there. I really like Kadri between Lupul and Kulemin. Kulemin can't score to save his life (not bad on assists though), but he's a great defensive forward, which gives Kadri and Lupul more freedom to take a chance or two, knowing there are essentially 2.5 defensemen behind them. Of course, this requires either Lupul or Kulemin playing on the wrong wing. One would hope Carlyle learned his lesson in Anaheim and LEAVES LUPUL ON THE LEFT. Kulemin can't be offensively worse on his off wing.

Grabo's speed and creativity might finally see the expected dividends with Frattin and Mac alongside him. 1st line speaks for itself right now.

At last Carlyle has, at least temporarily, dropped the "keep the Russians together" concept. Of course, all this could change by game time tomorrow.

Now, if these lines take off, don't expect much movement. Otherwise, Lupul will inevitably be on the 1st line again (where he belongs), with JVR and MacArthur being somewhere on the 2nd and 3rd.

The Inn is Full

Long Leafs post. You've been warned.

I was going to write this yesterday, but opted to lose some bar poker instead. Still, the idea doesn't change that much on the heels of a 3-game losing streak for my boys in blue & white.

The Leafs have a roster problem. Too many players.

There are two noticeable absences in the line-up at the moment - Joffery Lupul and Jake Gardiner. Lupul was our number two scorer last year, and the top line of him and Kessel was unstoppable - and one of the only bright spots of the season. Three games in this year he took a Dion Phaneuf shot off the forearm and has been out ever since waiting for the fracture to heal. There seems to be a perpetual "1-2 week" period until he's ready to play these days. He skated with the team on Monday, but is still not 100%. This hasn't been a problem to date because others have picked up the slack. Van Riemsdyk  has worked well with Kessel on the top line. MacArthur and Kadri have chemistry on the 3rd. Frattin was shooting out the lights before he went down for a couple weeks, but he's back now and showing some good hustle. Still, Lupul's presence is missed - the guy has speed, power, finesse, is hard to move, and offered plenty of options when skating down the ice with Kessel on the the other side. Either could score with ease. Not to mention he constantly comes off as the most articulate and intelligent of the Leafs in interviews and is a leader in the dressing room.

Gardiner is our rookie phenom on D. With lots of speed and stick-handling ability he's got skills that our largely stay-at-home defense is lacking. He came back to the team too quickly after a concussion in the minors, and was sent back down to finish getting up to speed. He's been proving that he's ready to come back ever since.

So what's the hold up? Waivers.

The Leafs have a full roster and only 3 players who can be sent down to the minors without having to clear waivers - Nazem Kadri, Leo Komarov, and Korbinian Holzer. Kadri ain't going anywhere, being tied for the team lead with 25 points. Komarov is a hitting machine and the irritant every team loves to have. That leaves Holzer, another rookie D-man, who just got a 2-year extension. He's had a rough week, and was never good enough to justify staying in the lineup game-in and game-out with someone like Gardiner waiting in the wings. Until you look deeper.

Up in the press box sits John-Michael Liles and Mike Komisarek.  Two veteran Ds who haven't seen the ice in over a month. Komi is a failed acquisition who will be bought out once the season is done if he's not traded first. He COULD be sent down without fear of clearing waivers (because nobody would take him, and if they did, we'd be fine with it), except for his no-movement clause. Whoops. I've never been sure why Liles hasn't been given another shot on the ice though. He's got good speed, and good offensive production, but perhaps doesn't have a strong enough defensive game for Carlyle.

So, 1 player that can be easily moved down, 2 players that should be on the ice. That math doesn't add up.

There are a few things in play here that may not be obvious. First, Gardiner has 3 games to play in the big leagues before he can't go back down. So if he's brought up, he's up for good. Throw in an already jammed-up defense (8 D on the 23-man roster right now), and this complicates matters. Franson, Phaneuf, and Fraser aren't coming off the ice. Gunnarsson and Kostka COULD see time in the press box for a break if the coach had any faith in the $8.4 million in players already there. That leaves Holzer. I'll get to that in a second. Point being - there isn't room for the guy without a move.

So why not Holzer? Because Lupul HAS to come back, and Holzer is the insurance for that. Gardiner CAN stay with Marlies this season if need be. It sucks for him, but them's the breaks from a contract perspective. I'm sure Nonis and company are letting him know how much they want to bring him up, but just can't. Lupul doesn't have a choice. They're taking their time with his recovery (a lot of times, this sort of injury would see a guy back at 80-90% with a soft cast or something. But they're going for the full 100% here) because it takes pressure off the roster situation, and the team is doing fine so far. If a trade can't be made, then Holzer goes down to clear up space for Lupul, with Liles coming down from the press box to fill the spot on the blue line. If Holzer goes down now for Gardiner, then the Leafs are in a bad spot trade-wise. They'll HAVE to make a trade, and that shifts the advantage to the other side of the deal. Every GM will know that the Leafs have to clear roster space, so they'll offer less for more. That's not acceptable. So Holzer stays up... as leverage.

Ideally, the Leafs would love to trade Komisarek, or possiibly Liles. The fans would like to see Kulemin gone, despite him being a solid defensive forward (he's paid too much for that role, based off one offensively productive season). Any of those would go for reasonable draft picks or prospects, but we could potentially get an overpaid roster player if the fit is right. Someone like a Bozak, MacArthur, or Franson are also possibilities. The first two because they're UFAs at the end of the season and worth something now, the last because he's worth more than he's ever been and we're heavy on defense with Gardiner waiting and Morgan Reilly coming up quickly. Although the pressure to make the playoffs this year could prevent some of those trades from happening (do you trade your top faceoff guy, who takes EVERY defensive-zone faceoff? Do you trade one of your best playmakers? Or your top offensive defenseman?) Will anybody offer anything worthwhile for Komi, Liles, or Kulemin and their contracts? Will the Leafs have to carry salary for those trades to happen?

Also, how does Lupul's return change things? He goes on the top line sooner rather than later (maybe not game 1, but by game 4). JVR to the second? Where does that put Kulemin? JVR to 3rd and MacArthur to where?  The lineup shakes up significantly on Lupul's return. Only after that disturbance will the Leafs really know what they need and who they don't. So it's yet another reason to hold off bringing up Gardiner. Lupul returns and you get 1 or 2 weeks to assess your full team before the trade deadline.

So my call? Barring some unexpected trade (ie.- David Steckel for a 5th rounder, or someone comes calling for Komisarek, or Kostka is even an outside possibility), or this losing streak carrying on (creating panic moves), Holzer stays on the team until Lupul is ready to return. Then Holzer goes down, then trades happen, then maybe Gardiner comes up - if Carlyle can figure out how to use him.

Sports Report

Jays = 5th place in the AL East, .506, probably 3rd in your division, 4 back of the wild card.

2nd in home runs
5th in RBIs
3rd in runs
17th in batting average... there's a problem. Although 7th in OPS

3 of our 5 starters are injured. Within a 2-week span. 2 of our past starters have been out the whole season so far, so there goes depth. AA pitchers have been rushed up to the bigs.

Our closer? Sucked and is injured. Luckily Janssen has stepped into that role easily and incredibly.

The pressure on the remaining two starters is looking like it may be too much for them. For young Alvarez this isn't a surprise, but Romero should be better than that.

What more can I say? If we don't get some healthy pitching up front, call this season done by August.

Maybe Hutchinson and Morrow are back by then.  Drabek and Litsch are gone for the season. McGowan? Who knows. In Anthopoulos we trust.

At least the games have been largely entertaining.


But the Leafs... oh boy. My Leafs.

Here's the thing - a Nash, or Parise, or Jagr wouldn't help this team. They're not what they need. Also, they do nothing to make the team attractive to other players. We need a centre. Is there one? Not really. If there was, we don't have much to offer for one. Getting Van Riemsdyk is nice, especially at the cost of Schenn. But he's not fixing anything.

We need goaltending. Maybe Reimer comes back healthy and confident. Maybe Scrivens is ready for the bigs. Maybe nobody gets clocked in the head 8 games in and loses their season. That's a lot of maybes.

Luongo. I don't give a rat's ass if he wants to come here. That's the sort of player the team needs - a proven goalie is a sign to other players that Toronto is serious. That they have someone who can win and steal games for them. That they'll at least make the playoffs. It hides defensive deficiencies. He gives the forwards more freedom. He attracts interest. He's not going to win the Cup on his own, but if the Blue and White see more than 82 games, he'll be a hero to the city.

Will he end up here? I doubt it. Gardiner isn't going anywhere, and that's who everyone wants. If Burke can fool Vancouver into taking a Kadri, or some draft picks, or Komisarek, or some other combination of "potential" and crap, then it's a steal. Of course, Luuuuu has to give up on living in Florida for a few more years for that to happen.

Of course, he Bobby does go the Panthers, Theodore wouldn't look too bad in a platoon with Reimer. Not ideal, but at least proven.

No... my prediction for who the Leafs get? Jason Arnott. He's the typical Leafs free agent grab.

Recognizable name, past his prime, and will get paid more for longer by the Leafs than elsewhere (my guess, $4 mil over 2 seasons), and will do very little to help the team on the whole. Will be brought in as a "leader" and role player. But some people will foolishly think he's a 1st line centre. That or Langkow, but he lacks the cachet and probably won't take the pay hit.

What hurts the most is watching our conference get better while we stand mostly still. The piecemeal approach being employed - a winger here, a 3rd line centre there... that's great when you have core players in all your zones. We have wingers, some decent d-men, a second-line centre, and $12.5 million in cap space.

Hopefully we also have a GM with a trick or two up his sleeve... or a rabbit's foot.

It's The Cup

At no point before the playoffs would I have believed anyone had I been told the LA Kings and Phoenix Coyotes would be fighting for the Western conference finals. Rangers and Devils in the East? That's more believable.

But the Kings? The Coyotes? Amazing. I have to say, LA has impressed me. A whole team effort, tons of scoring, shut-down defence and of course, amazing goaltending. In short, what it takes.

As a Leafs fan, I have an historic reason to not like the Kings. It's hard to overcome, as it was the closest we've come to the finals in my lifetime. But these aren't those Kings. These aren't the Melrose-coached, Gretzky-led Kings of the early 90's. I'll be damned if I'm not finding myself cheering for these guys.

And for the league, I'm kinda cheering for a Rangers-Kings cup.  New York vs Los Angeles? That strikes me as huge. That strikes me as coastal rivalries. Hollywood vs Broadway. I'm hoping it happens. I'm hoping it goes to triple overtime in game seven.

I'm hoping for good hockey.

Bits

Leafs still suck, our Mayor and his lapdogs are still idiots, and I still have no idea what my final photography project will be.

Leafs - 8-0?? 8-0?????? WHAT. THE. FUCK.

Yah, it's Boston. Yah, they own us. Still 8-0?? You can't throw the whole season in ONE game guys! You have to lose them one at a time! Damned Leafs can't even lose right.

-------

OK Blue Jays!

Brett Lawrie's spring training numbers? 9 games, 23 AB, 5 runs, 14 hits, 6 doubles, 1 triple, 8 RBI, 1 walk, 1 strike out, 5 stolen bases, .609 avg, .625 OBP, .957 SLG!

Out with a groin strain.  Pulled himself from the game. All indications are he's a full-throttle player but a smart kid. Has superstar written all over him.

--------

Hey, let's say you really tied yourself to a failing plan for subways, but your council has all the evidence that supports light rail transit instead, and the citizens of your city are slowly swinging that way because they have brains and can see the evidence.

Do you

A) Provide feasible counter-evidence supporting subways as a better long-term solution, along with at least a bare-bones plan for funding the subway?

B) Enter into an intelligent debate in an attempt to find a workable compromise between the plans.

C) Call the latest commissioned report "hogwash", without any evidence, because it 100% supports LRT development as the best option even when money isn't taken into account. Then have one of your lackey councillors hand out pictures of LRT crashes to the opposition, including pictures of a couple that died in one, considering that some sort of evidence that subways are better.

If you said C, then you may be qualified to be Mayor of Toronto! Actually, no, you aren't qualified, you're an idiot who might get elected by people who were too lazy to spend 5 seconds looking beyond your obviously empty promises.

Remember kids - things crash! You know what crashes more? Cars! Also bikes. And planes. And people running, or walking but not looking where they're going.  Oh, and subways sometimes. Devastatingly so.

---------

Final project is due in a couple weeks for the latest photography class. Subject - whatever the hell I want.  Just make it look purdy.

Except I have no idea what I want to do.  Poker night last semester didn't work as I wanted. So I'm hesitant to set up a whole scene again.

My latest thought was origami.  I have a rather kick-ass Zombiegami book I got for Christmas, with coloured papers and complex designs.  My first attempt from it half worked out, but if I actually started folding when not watching TV, I imagine I could get a nice little paper zombie apocalypse going... a couple set pieces and it could be something interesting.

Yah, I'm liking that more all the time. It's good to type things out.

Post-Deadline Moves

The Leafs largely stood pat during trade deadline time. A couple small trades that affected the Marlies more than the big team.  I was fine with it. I agree with Burke that you don't dismantle your rebuild to start over.

But with the trade deadline in the rearview, it looks like Burke's got more time on his hands to get other things done.

Like firing Ron Wilson. I was shocked. Not because he didn't deserve it, but because there were only 19 games left and Ron and Brian were BFFs.

In standard Burke fashion, he then brought in another buddy - Randy Carlyle, formerly of the Ducks. I liked the line in one article that said he'd replaced a hard-ass with a harder-ass. Another tough coach, but one with a slightly different gameplan and not much time to implement it.

First game under Carlyle? A win. Whoopee.

17 games, 4 teams to jump, some of them on a hot streak. He has his work cut out for him. The playoffs are still pretty unlikely, but less so than a week ago.  If nothing else, the players should be playing to impress from here out. Look for guys like Komisarek, Steckel, and Schenn to step up their games as they seem to fit into his coaching style more comfortably, and will be rewarded for hard work.

Then, about an hour ago, it was announced that Mikhail Grabovski signed a 5-year contract extension. Our second line centre is now worth $5.5 million a year apparently. On first look my jaw dropped. Figuring him in the $4-4.5 mil range.  But on closer inspection, his stats are right there with Ryan Kesler or Patrice Bergeron, excpet in +/-.  But in this case, a +7 on a -7 club has to be weighed against the much better +/- of Vancouver and Boston.  One could argue he's better than Kesler when you take that into account.  So now $5.5M doesn't seem too out of line, except that he has to prove he's worth it over the next 5 years.

So, $7.6 mil left in cap space next year.  Our only UFA of any interest being Jonas Gustavsson (Joey Crabb is cheap).  Plus a few RFA's that could be worth holding on to.

But what does this do for Lupul's contract? We've got him for one more season at $4.25 mil and he's having a hell of a year. Extend in the off-season? Wait until partway through next to see if he can keep it up? If he can, he's worth $6.5-7M.  Kessel too. Certainly, they're worth more than Dion Phaneuf's $6.5 mil.

Anyway, two big question marks have been removed, providing stability for the remainder of this season. If nothing else, the next dozen and a half games will be used to assess what needs to be addressed in the off-season, and who will be packing their bags. I'd guess that names like Nash and Parise won't be seen on the back of Leafs jerseys though.

Bleeding Blue and White, Turning Red

Fuckin' Leafs.

1-8-1 in the last 10 games. 4 points out of a playoff spot. Only 3 points ahead of BUFFALO? Give me a break.

What a joke.

I agree with not much being done on the trade deadline. Other than a goaltender, no trade would have made a major difference with the club.  But the goaltenders worth anything that were available would have come at far too high a cost for them. When Evgeni Nabokov and Jonathan Bernier are your top options, their prices are going to be inflated.

Nash? Obviously nobody wanted to pay the price for him.

Dustin Brown? Might have been nice, but hardly improves a team fighting for a playoff spot. He's a good addition FOR the playoffs, but not scrambling for them.

The reality is that most deadline signings don't have an effect on the acquiring team until the following season. It takes more than 20 games to find your groove with new teammates and new coaches.

So, nothing was going to get fixed by dismantling the rebuilding effort.

Look, I said before the season started that the playoffs would be a fight. We were as likely to be in 11th as 7th with this team and this division. The emergence of Kessel and Lupul as bona fide stars is welcome, but the death of our secondary scoring, complete inconsistency in goal, and godawful defence has more than countered the upsides. Those last two points have really come home in this stretch. Where before the Leafs could win on top-line scoring alone, the turnovers and bad goals of late are gifting points to opponents.

But that's not the worst of it. What really pisses me off as I've watched this collapse is the lack of energy on the team. It started when they played 4 games in 6 nights a couple weeks back.  The Leafs were DEAD after the first game. They could barely stand up, let alone skate end-to-end by the third period of the second game. By the end of the week I half expected to see them snoozing on the bench.

If you can't play the 2nd half of back-to-back games without looking like your legs are made of wet noodle, then you're sure as shit not going to make it ANYWHERE in the playoffs. Where the fuck is the conditioning?

Outside of Lupul and Brown, are there any players on the team who can go a full 60 minute game?  I wish the whole team was made of clones of these two. Brown can't score, but he's scrapping and banging and shooting to the last second, whether it's 5-0 leafs or 10-0 other guys. Kessel still looks like he should be on a beer-league team, and it shows as the long stretches play out.

I think back to the Pat Burns days, and him running the team hard every single practice. They'd be gasping for breath when the sprints and drills were over. He told them they'd be thankful when they were in overtime in game 7 of a playoff series. That year's team saw a game 7 every round. And more overtimes, double overtimes, and triple overtimes than any team has ever seen. They played hard every damned shift.How the hell is Wilson letting his team look this poorly conditioned?

So now, 19 games left, four points out, 2 teams to climb over, to JUST make the playoffs - the team needs to be shaken up. Firing Wilson at this point serves no purpose. If they miss the playoffs, he's in trouble.  But knowing Burke's loyalty to his guys, I expect you'd see the rest of the coaching staff scrapped first. Goaltending coach Francois Allaire should be the first out the door.  He may be highly regarded, but his method clearly isn't working with what he's got.

At this point, with 9 of the next 11 games on the road, the Leafs need a kick in the collective ass. They'll be away from the (rightfully) booing fans at home, away from the Toronto hockey media circus, and that can't hurt. But they'd better be flying a few Marlies around with them too. Time for Kadri to skate around for a game or two again, give Colborne a shot, why not Carter Ashton? They can't hurt any more than we're hurting. Would it kill them to put Scrivens in net for a game? If nothing else, the enthusiasm from these guys could be a refreshing change right now. The teams hits the ice already beaten now. It's an embarrassment.

I accept rebuilding. In fact, I embrace it for the Leafs. Too many rebuilding efforts on this club have been stopped dead by a playoff run or unexpectedly good season. I'm glad Burke is sticking to his guns. But at this point? We should be fighting for 6th, not 8th.

Hockey Pool

Once again, I'm running an NHL Playoff Pool. Quick details:

$20 entry
Last year had 141 entrants
1st place paid $1250
5 places paid out
10% of the total prize pool goes the winner's charity of choice. Winner got the tax receipt on top of the prize.

It's not the standard pool type. Teams are given a value based on their finish in the league. So Washington is worth 1 point, and Montreal is worth 16 (last place). Each win for these teams gets them that number of points. So 5 wins for Washington is 5 points. 5 wins for Montreal is 80 points.

If you're interested in an entry form, let me know either here or at my e-mail (my name (astin) at sympatico dot com). It'll come with all the instructions and details.

Deadline for entry is Wednesday at 5pm.

Oh, and I have to know who you are. So lurkers and spambots? Don't bother.

Oh, Canada.

It wasn't Brodeur's fault.

Got it? Good.

Was Miller the better goalie last night? Maybe.

Was the US team the better team? Definitely.

People like placing blame on one scapegoat, but Marty isn't the right target here. Sure, he wasn't "Martin Brodeur", possibly the greatest netminder in the history of the game, but he was hardly a rank amateur flopping all over the place either.

The team let him down. The Canadian hockey ego said, as it did with Switzerland, that offense is the best defense. Sadly, Team Canada excelled at neither last night. Again.

45 shots. Whoop-dee-doo. 45 shots from the point, bad angles, or on the fly, on the ice. Could they not get the puck up? Could nobody position themselves to get a rebound or tip in? When you're facing a goaltender like Miller, who has been consistently solid ALL SEASON, and a US team that is hungry to beat you, then you need the ugly goals, and the opportune goals. You need to PUT THE PUCK ON THE NET and HAVE SOMEONE THERE TO MAKE SURE IT GOES IN. No screening, no grit.

No heart.

I'm not even going to get into the amount of dump-and-chase our guys played.

And in our own end? Please. Scattershot. Uncoordinated. A mess. Did they draw straws to see who would go in the corners? Did they sometimes forget to include a short straw? How about collapsing around your own net to protect the goalie? You know, like the US team did EVERY TIME THEY WERE IN THEIR OWN ZONE?!

Sure, having faith in your goalie lets you take more chances. But that doesn't mean you abandon him.

Marty had NO support. Not until Canada realized that they were in serious trouble and that another goal would kill them. THEN they started blocking shots and chasing the puck like it meant something.

Even then, Seabrook practically gifted the crazy empty-net goal to Chicago teammate Kane in the dying minutes. Kane literally breathing down his neck and his stick is OFF THE ICE? He should have stepped up the hustle and shot that puck away from the net instead of letting Kane flop down and knock it between the pipes. That's how you lose a game.

Maybe it'll be a wakeup call to the team. Maybe they'll remember that they aren't the only ones stacked with NHL superstars and quality goaltending. Or maybe they'll think the extra game they now have to play against Germany will be a cakewalk and get their asses almost handed to them again.

Regardless, it's better for them as a team to take this loss now and have to play the extra game. It SHOULD bring them closer together as a team and force them to face their egos and errors and right this ship.

If the outcry continues, expect Steve Yzerman to say or do something mildly controversial to draw the heat away from his guys.

It ain't over yet.

Heeeeere We Go

This is about hockey.

Part of the Film Fest this year are short clips from the Toronto archives and National Film Board celebrating Toronto's 175th birthday. One of these clips is of the 1967 Stanley Cup parade, the last one this city has seen. I like this clip because I get to yell out "OH MY GOD! WHAT THE HELL IS THAT THING?" when the cup appears on the screen.

Which brings me to today. Tonight is exhibition game #1 - the Bruins are in town. For the next few weeks, the coaching and management staff get to assess their talent in a game situation. The Leafs don't have a ton of talent, so this will make it difficult.

There's talk of making of the playoffs this year. It's remotely possible. The team's toughened up the defense a ton, and bulked up the team as a whole. Garnet Exelby, Mike Komisarek, Francois Beauchemin, Colton Orr, and Wayne Primeau (I still don't get that one) have all been brought on board. They'll be side-by-side with Jamal Mayers, Ben Ondrus, Luke Schenn, and others in the agitator and brick wall departments. It should help Tomas Kaberle and a now healthy Mike Van Ryn get into the play for some quarterbacking.

Throw in Gustavsson as the fire being lit under Toskala's ass in net and everything behind the blue line looks solid. If the opposition gets in the Leafs end, they should be punished for it, and if they still get the puck on the net, there should be some admirable minders between the pipes.

Which is all great, and will address the worst penalty killers in the league and one of the worst goals-against numbers. But what about up front?

Yah, goaltending, like pitching in baseball, wins you games and playoffs, but you still need to get some points on the board. Jason Blake? Mikhail Grabovski? Alexi Ponikarovsky? Matt Stajan? These are our big point getters? Maybe John Mitchell steps it up and becomes a star this year. Maybe Phil Kessel finds his way into a Leafs uniform and has a great season. Maybe we end up with another season with 4 20-goal scorers and not much else.

In short, we have half a team. There is no bona fide star on this team, and not enough "character" players up front to make it one of those hard-working, grinding teams that goes deep without a hot-selling jersey. This is the year for the young guys to step it up and impress. This is where talent is assessed in year 2 of the 5 year plan. Who's good enough to stay? Who's good enough to be traded? One thing's for sure, the front end of this team isn't going to remain stable.

Playoffs? Maybe. Boring, defensive hockey can take you far, even in a faster, more wide-open NHL. The Leafs seem to have the size and speed defending their end to effectively hobble other teams. The downside of the gritty and rough game they're gunning for is that injuries tend to pile up, which means there will be definite slumps, and probably running out of gas earlier than they'd like. Let's say they'll finish somewhere between 7th and 11th in their division.

I have no problem with this. The team needs to stick to a rebuilding philosophy, and doing too well this year will cripple those efforts. Next year - year 3 - is when they're supposed to start surprising people.

Bigger and Badder

This is about hockey.

There, now that 70% of you have stopped reading, I can continue.

It's about the Leafs.

That should drop it to 10% of the original readership.

That most beloved of teams is rebuilding. This is known. But the whole "rebuilding" concept is very foreign to Toronto fans. We're generally used to our teams sucking for extended periods of time, and then some new money coming in and buying high-priced free agents.

Which is why I think the upcoming season could be interesting.

Yes, it's July.

See, we had Cliff Fletcher as GM for a brief period. His job was simply to hold the fort until Brian Burke came to town. He did an admirable job. He knew that Burke would be rebuilding, so he cleared out some space, salary, and dead weight. He avoided sentimentality in his decisions, something that less experienced GMs in Toronto have often failed to do. And he tried to build a halfway decent value-priced defence so that the team wouldn't be completely embarrassed.

And then Burke came in and spent the remainder of the season evaluation what he had. He wasn't pleased. He saw a team that was small, timid, and weak. He saw a team getting pushed around the ice. He saw a team with just enough talent to not completely suck, but not enough to make a difference.

And he made sure everyone knew it. He proclaimed that the team would get tougher. He brought in Brad May of all people to toughen up the team. May made a minor impact, throwing his weight around and dropping the gloves when needed. But May isn't young.

Then the off-season came. Burke's living up to his promise.

The draft brought in a "potential" player in Kadri. This is a kid who may never see the big leagues, or may be a superstar one day. It all depends how he grows and develops. He's no Crosby, Malkin, Staal, or even a Schenn. The skills are there, but he's not ready for prime time yet.

But the draft was minor in the grand scheme of things.

He got bigger and tougher. Colton Orr - one of the toughest fighters in the league. Mike Komisarek - a huge defenceman. Garnet Exelby and Francois Beauchemin, two more sizeable d-men were added. Jonas Gustavsson, dubbed "The Monster" is now backing up Vesa Toskala in net (and could take over the starting job depending how Toskala is post-surgery). Throw in Christian Hanson (yes, he's a real Hanson - son of Dave) at the end of last season, and Burke has reshaped the team. Only 4 players under 6'0" tall makes The Leafs a sizeable force.

But they aren't really any better. Most of the size has come on the back end. The defence is bigger, badder, and much more stay-at-home. But this is what's needed for a rebuilding team. A big defensive squad that doesn't venture deep into enemy territory will only help the goalies. It won't make for exciting hockey, but it will make for some confidence on the front end. It should allow for more creative plays, and give coach Ron Wilson the chance to... coach.

Rebuilding takes years. It's generally accepted to take around 5 years from start to finish. You need to wipe the slate clean - and The Leafs don't have much left from the Ferguson years. Then you need to see what you've got in the system. A couple years of high draft picks that you hope turn out, and player development follow. By year 3, you should be showing marked improvement and a solid direction.

This is usually where the surprises happen - grit and chemistry come together to put together a stronger playoff drive than expected, or a big surge at some point in the regular season. This is usually where the plan falls apart too. The fans get a taste of success. Front office gets a taste of playoff and merchandaising revenue (the latter is never lacking in Toronto). These combine to force rash decisions - high priced free agents, big trades, and eventually a complete collapse over a couple seasons as you destroy the foundations you built. If a team can make it past this point and hold onto the original plan, they have a chance.

Year 4 is when the team is taken seriously. Those draft picks and young guys are now established players. The team it top-heavy with guys that can be traded to fill in the depth chart elsewhere or let promising rookies into the system. A strong playoff showing is expected, and there's even the chance at going all the way.

Year 5 is when the final pieces are put in place. The veteran leader is brought in. The blockbuster trade is made. The big name free agent is brought in to fill a hole. Individual, yet big, pieces are moved into place.

Right now, the Leafs are entering year 2. The team is laying the groundwork to be a bigger, tougher team. The size brought in will create an image for the team. It will up the aggression of the more timid players on the roster. The defence will allow mistakes to be made up front without serious consequences destroying young egos. The highly-touted backup goaltender should light a fire under the starter, or make Toskala a tradeable commodity.

But they still won't achieve much. If they make the playoffs, they'll squeak in, get a taste, and slink out quietly. This is part of rebuilding, and the fans need to get used to it. With a little luck, their patience will finally be rewarded. And Leafs fans have been nothing if not patient for the last 42 years.

Monday Again

Every week, Monday rolls around. Will it ever stop?

Good weekend though.

Friday - continued displaying my lack of a life by staying home and coming in second in the Donkament. Congrats to Numbette for taking it down. I spent most of the game listening to the BDR crew bash my stellar play (rebuy method: (Any ace, any king, any connectors, any 1-gappers, any suited face, any paint) = ALL IN)

I ran sick, then the RNG turned on me, then I ran sick again after the rebuy.

Meanwhile I drank a Blue Lagoon with blood orange vodka and watched the Penguins beat the Wings in game 7 (I can only imagine how happy this guy was).

Hell of a game. Hell of a series. Hell of a playoffs. Good game guys. Penguins take round 2 against Detroit and Crosby is the youngest Stanley Cup captain ever. Bettman's still a douchebag though. Can you say round 3 next year?

Saturday - Oh bliss. Hit the farmer's market with the best friend. It was surrouned by dogs as Woofstock (and that's just the start of the bad puns for that event) was taking place on the closed-off street. Good things dogs are cute. Grabbed a few bags of groceries, and off to the Summerhill Market to find Greek yogurt. You'd think in a city that has a Greek population like we do, there'd be more Greek yogurt to be found.

Why Greek yogurt (and a bunch of other stuff)? Because we were making Greek food that night. Homemade tzatiki (fan-FUCKING-tastic) and Greek salad was my friend's job. Me? I handled the chicken (one whole chicken, butterflied, marinated, and grilled flat on the BBQ on the roof), and the potatoes, roasted in the oven until brown and crispy (that last bit was handled by my friend as I was roofside, grilling).

As I was on the roof grilling away, I called my friend to come up and take some stuff down. Upon walking out on my fantastic roof with a great view of the city, lake, tower, and AGO on a gorgeous evening, it was decided that we were eating up there. An excellent bottle of Hillebrand's 2008 Artist's series Sauvingnon Blanc (sent thanks to my wine club membership) was downed, and a couple whitebeers (Hoegaarden and Blanche de Chambly) came after. Some strawberry sorbet from last week finished it off.

That was one kickass meal, and the leftovers made a kick-ass chicken sandwhich for me on Suday. That's also when I found the Kasseri cheese that was supposed to be made into Saganaki. Whoops.

Sunday? I woke up around 1, lazed through the day, and played some poker. I came to a realization that my BR was in trouble and I didn't want to refill it (and, in fact, Click2Pay won't let me on Stars). So I guess I'm back to playing responsible limits. Which likely means no more WSOP shots or last-minute Sunday guarantees. $3 MTTs and $5 SnGs, here I come! Oh joy.

And then today I finished off the Playoff Pool. this guy came in 2nd in the second chance pool, which game him a bit of a profit that I'll now mail across the country. Thousands of $$ given away, and not a penny to me.

Now to eliminate the next 3 days so it's Friday tomorrow. I'm entering one of the birthday seasons (not mine), which means many a friend to be visited in the upcoming weeks. Damn, that's starting to sound like a life, and just when I was enjoying sitting around in my boxers with a plate of bacon in front of me.

Bits

Mookie tonight! Full Tilt, 10pm ET (9pm CT, 8pm MT, 7pm PT), pw: vegas1. 7 shots at BBT4 TOC seat left! Chances of me making the Brit game on Sunday are below slim, so only 6 shots for yours truly.

Skillz went horribly last night... largely because I had a huge case of "meh" going on and didn't give a rat's ass. Oh, and because my trip aces with a better kicker got riverboated.

Tonight? Condo general meeting, which is always aggravating and boring at the same time. At least they're not installing 800k worth of A/C on the roof this year. I should probably open and read the package sometime. Mookie after that, and I may, possibly, be riled up.

Jays lose 2-1 to the Red Sox last night. Pitcher's duel, with Wakefield coming out on top... barely. Tallet continues to impress.

Wings go up 2-0 in the series against the Hawks. Chicagoans, ask yourself honestly - can the Hawks win 4/5 against Detroit?

Speaking of Chicago - I've got an invite to head down that way in June or July for a weekend with a bunch of friends. Still debating if I can swing the time. There's also the possibility of a weekend at a cottage closer to home which is slightly more appealing (nothing against Chi-town, I just like relaxing next to a lake with beer, and seldom get the chance)... I'd ideally like to swing both.

Spinal Tap/The Folksmen - Unwigged and Unplugged tomorrow night! Should be a good show... Tap acoustic could be interesting, no idea how you turn an acoustic performance up to 11.

I've been playing around with High Dynamic Range (HDR) a fair bit these days, some might say too much. But then again, I don't go to the completely unrealistic extremes some do out there. For some reason, I particularly like this shot. It's right on that border of hyper-real and looking computer generated. I like the almost bump-mapped look of the pavement too.



Alright, enough ramblin' for now.

Test #2

Me? A homer? Perish the thought!

Yah, so I'm a homer... your point is what? I love my city, and my introduction to any major sport was through our home teams. I still remember seeing John Cerutti pitch to a young Pat Borders in Exhibition Stadium in the 80's. I came to hockey late (12 years old), watching the Leafs shake off the Brophy years, but still under the iron fist of Ballard mismanagement. Hell, I paid about zero attention to the NBA until the Raptors came into existence, and even now only pay about 3% attention to the league.

So yup, I'm a homer. No shame in that.

So on the thread - The Jays, having pulled off a four game sweep of the White Sox, are now facing Sox of the red variety. This would be their second test of the year, having achieve a D against the Yankees last week (2-1 series loss, but close in the 3rd game). Boston's 3.5 games back of the Jays for 1st in the AL East, so this is one of those early season "big" series. Opening up a 6.5 game lead on the Sox could go a long way to defining the season, but dropping to just 1/2 game ahead will put some pressure on. Of course, it could all mean nothing by the end.

We've got Tallet, Cecil and Ray vs Wakefield, Penny, and Lester on the mound. Interestingly, Wakefield's the only one who has better stats than his opponent, and then, not by much. Not exactly the heart of our rotation, but then again, I don't know where exactly that is outside of Halladay. This will be a solid test for all three of these guys as starters. Here's hoping they pass.

Looking at those Boston ERAs though, there could be a couple hitting displays from the boys in blue.

Then they're in Atlanta? Interleague already? Wow.

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Conference finals in the NHL have started. Detroit took those kids from Chicago out to the shed for a whuppin' in game 1, and we'll see if the kids learned their lesson tonight. That game played out pretty much as expected - Chicago showed up early, showed their speed, and the Detroit showed them what speed and talent and experience can do.

Pittsburgh got lucky against Carolina. Fleury was solid, and the Penguins defence should be buying him a nice bottle of something for saving their asses in game 1. Sure, with the talent in Pittsburgh, the Penguins could crush the 'Canes, but it's nowhere near its peak, and Carolina ain't a bunch of slouches themselves.

Sports Report

So the Jays lost their second series of the year last night. The hated Yankees took 2 out of 3, but it took a come-from-behind last night to do it in 3-2 style.

Jays are still the best team in the AL, and 2nd best to the Dodgers in the Majors. They kick off another series against the White Sox tonight, with yet another potential rookie sensation in Brett Cecil getting the start. I guess a mea culpa is in order here.

I've ragged on JP Ricciardi for years now. He's used the injuries this team has had as an excuse to keep his job for the past couple seasons, and last year seemed to get lucky with a completely untested starting rotation once you got past #2. But this year, with a rotation you couldn't pick out of a lineup, they've thrived again. It seems that every time a starter goes down, there's another quality minor leaguer to take the spot. Then guys like Tallet show that they can start as well. Sure, he might only go 6, but we kept putting Chacin out there every 5 days a few years back, and Tallet has so far been more impressive. Now, a ton of credit goes to Halladay for his leadership by example on the mound, and Arnsberg for coaching the shit out of these guys, but I've got to give props to the scouting staff, and Ricciardi, for finding this much talent and getting it into the system.

Add in a healthy lineup for the first time in years, and it's shown that JP can get the right people with a stick in place too. So perhaps I've judged him too harshly. Or perhaps he's luckier than me.

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Round 3 of the NHL playoffs (the best damned playoffs in any sport, bar none) kicks off on Sunday. I've said it before, and now the pundits on the sports shows are agreeing with me - best damned playoffs in decades. THREE of the four round 2 matchups went to game 7s. The 4th went to game 6. These teams have been evenly matched, and nearly every game has been a back-and-forth affair. There have been moments never seen before - Ovechkin and Crosby going hat trick for hat trick in one game comes to mind. There have been hilight real goals and saves every single night. This has been exciting, gritty hockey, where the outcome just can't be predetermined. Chicago and Carolina have surprised on both sides, and there are two Original Six teams facing off in the west. There were almost 3 of the Original Six in roudn 3 save for a Carolina goal in overtime last night.

Carolina vs Pittsburgh - Cam Ward vs Sid Crosby. That will be the story. Carolina's got heart, and a good even spread of talent and depth and veteran leadership. They've got a solid coach in Paul Maurice (I still feel bad that he was booted out of Toronto, he had a shitty team under him that wouldn't listen), and I liked the Canes as a dark horse from the start, and would love to see the coach get his hands on the cup as fuck you to the ownership in this town. But Pittsburgh has Crosby and Malkin and Fleury in net. There's a ton of talent on that team, and I get the feeling they're just getting rolling. This will be another fantastic series. The Staal vs Staal (Eric vs Jordan) subplot will be fun too.

Chicago vs Detroit - Now THIS is a storybook series. Two Original Six teams, meaning a built-in rivalry that goes back decades. Chicago - young, raw, hungry, with a top-notch veteran goaltender. Detroit - Always aging, disciplined, gritty, dominating, and experienced with a team philosophy that is endlessly impressive. Chicago has surprised me every step of the way this season and playoffs, so I can't put it past them to upset Detroit here. They have snipers from all over the place, and if they can break down the Red Wings' discipline, they'll beat them just like the did to Vancouver. The problem is, Detrot ain't the Canucks. This is a team that is simply a machine. I can't see them breaking down and going end-to-end with Chicago. They'll stifle them, pound them, and show them how veterans play. Plus, the Red Wings have the best playoff beards in the league, and you can't put a metric on how much that will help them.

I don't want to make any calls on this round, because a repeat of Detroit-Pittsburgh from last year is just as likely as Carolina-Chicago. Any way you slice it, this is going to be a hell of a round.