On Instinct and Overthinking in Poker

I bought into the Fifty-Fifty last night, and went out 201st when 180 paid. I could have very easily folded to the money, but instead overthought a hand and called off my chips for an instant loss.

Then I won a $6 turbo without putting much thought into it at all.

A few posts back I wrote about how poker should eventually become largely instinctual. We play enough games, see enough styles, and think enough about it all that eventually we should just "feel" what to do most of the time. Note that there is a difference between playing by feel when you aren't a student of the game and doing it when you have a fair bit of experience under your belt.

The human mind is made to see patterns, and can access its vast stores of knowledge and experience quite easily if we let it. I'll trust Doyle Brunon's gut feelings at the table more than Mr. "I'm a Superstar" Internet 14-year old's book-learnin' any day.

You should know when you're beat, and TRUST that voice. You should know when that marginal hand is in trouble pre-flop vs when it offers you the chance to stack your opponent. And you should know this without having to ask for extra time.

I'm not saying this is going to happen 100% of the time. There will always be situations where you have to go in the tank. New players you haven't seen much of, holding the 2nd nuts and facing an all-in near the bubble against a variable player, wondering if you've been slow-played to the river by someone with a better kicker than you. There will always be times that require further effort. Just make sure you use the appropriate amount and don't overthink yourself into making a mistake.

Last night held some perfect examples of this. In the Fifty, I saw KJ a few times in front of me. Unlike some people, I actually like this hand. Yes it is easily dominated, but often times you find yourself up against drawing hands, AQ, AT, suited A-rag, QQ, and medium-to-small pocket pairs. KJ gives you ample opportunity to catch a fairly well-hidden straight that is great for stacking, the 2nd nut flush, and J or K with a decent kicker. The implied odds of the hand are huge. Plus, it is easy to get away from. I also had JJ in late position twice. JJ is a painful hand to play as it looks nice, but is easily beat by a pretty wide range of starting hands.

As late as a couple of months ago, I probably would have played these hands every time. Last night, I folded JJ both times pre-flop, and KJ all but once before any cards hit the felt. Why? Because I knew I would just be giving away money if I called. I didn't even have to think about it, they were getting mucked as soon as I saw the action before me. I did take the obligatory "I'm thinking about this" time to type "Damn, I have JJ" to Bayne in the girly chat though. Every time I saw a showdown on these hands, I would been crushed pre-flop. I did, however, play J9o, QTs, and other medium, easily-dominated hands throughout the night. Each time the situation was different (get in cheap, call a small raise, fire out a bet in medium-to-late position, etc.), but each time I knew that if I hit, I was walking away with more chips. At one point I got 9To in LP for the second consecutive hand and decided to call a 3x BB raise from MP. Flop came a beautiful 78J rainbow and I checked to the turn. Turn was a second 8 and I bet 1/2 the pot. The initial raiser put me all in after a few seconds thought, and I insta-called, knowing I had him beat. He flipped over A9o for his steal attempt, so that even the second 7 on the river did me no harm.

The $6 turbo was similar. I cracked aces twice - once with 23d that flopped trip threes, and one with 88 that flopped a set. Both times were the result of the AA slowplaying pre-flop so it didn't require any effort from me. It did, however, put me in a good chip position to steal and re-steal as people dropped. With 4 left and a small chip lead, I was able to abuse the table into helping me out. It was back-and-forth with 2nd place until there were 3 left and I took a commanding lead with steals and re-steals. Heads-up was a breeze, without anything more than a thought of "do I want to risk doubling him up at this point?" I cruised to the win without having to do any active thinking... it was all instinct.

Granted, these are two very different tournaments to compare, but the level of competition, but my point is that regardless of the situation, there's an aspect of "intuition" that comes into play, built off of countless hands of experience.

On the flipside, the hand that sent me to rail was a classic case of overthinking a hand. I had QJo on the button, and there was a min-raise from the highjack, cutoff calls, and I call. SB min-raises on top of that for a grand total of 3x BB and another player calls that before we all call again. I type in the girly chat to Bayne and LJ that "this flop better hit me haaaard." Flop comes TQ5 with 2 diamonds on the board (I am diamondless). It checks around to me, and I think about betting but decide there are too many people in the hand to think my TP3K is good, so I check as well. A jack comes on the turn. It checks around to the original min-raiser who puts out a small bet that I double or triple. Everyone folds to our raising friend who pushes for his remaining 7,000 and change into a pot of 5,000. I have around 3.5k left in front of me with a pot now around 12,000. My first reaction is to fold my top two pair, but instead I decide to think.

I type in the girly chat, "hmm.. pre-flop min-raise. AK? I have top 2." No help from the peanut gallery though. Good - it would have just messed me up. I request time and start pondering.

This guy has shown some donkish tenedencies, but has a decent stack. I think back to a hand earlier in the tournament when he called a push with a flush draw and inside straight draw on the turn, both Q-high. He lucked out with the pusher only having an OESD and this guy catching his inside card. Not a bad play, but he put his tournament life at risk early with what was 14 outs once or 2.29:1 against. I can't recall any other hands I've seen him win.

But here he has the nut straight with a flush draw on the board and one card to come. He has overbet the pot and it is now laying me 3.4:1 odds, and I'd have over 15k if I win, which is a ton at this point (150/300 blinds, 25 ante, 21 to go to the cash). I don't doubt he has something, but AA, KK, and even possibly AQ are still possibilities (although I discount the AQ). If he has AK, I'm beat save for 4 outs, if he has AA or KK, I'm way ahead here. The push seems too suspect to me, like he wants me to think he has AK or wants me out. So I call, because I'm playing to win.

He flips over AK and I'm done. If I'd gone with any of my initial instincts, I would have been gone from the hand and lost nothing, at best I would have taken it on the flop, at worst been alive with an M around 5, which is plenty to work with. Instead, I overthought the hand and found myself cheering on Bayne and playing a $6 turbo.

I will likely miss the Mookie tonight, as I plan to join Kat for some live play at the club. It will be a good warmup for Niagara on Friday (actually, the club has much stiffer competition than Fallsview ever will), and a nice change of pace. I bubbled the last time I played there - I will either do better this time, or go out in a blaze of glory.

It Was HUGE

As stated a couple posts ago, I'm only going to play in the 26k and Fifty-Fifty for the next while if I satellite into them. My favourite means of doing this for the "fiddy" is via the $2 rebuy satellite. Last week I got in with a $4 investment, and last night it cost me a grand total of $6. Yes, I got lucky a couple times, but I built up a HUGE stack with around 40 people left and continued to build it until there were 18 left. To the point where I had over 60,000 chips at the 400/800 + ante level, and 2nd place had less than 30k. I love rebuys.

This came in handy as all of a sudden my tournament froze. My connection didn't drop. I checked out some cash games and they were fine. All the other tournaments had stopped though. I figured this was a problem on Full Tilt's side. I waited. No notice, no message... nothing. I finally quit the client and logged back in.

I found myself sitting in 4th of 6 left at the final table with around 40k in chips left, having sat out for 12 eliminations (top 15 paid, 13 were entries). I said "whoops" and proceeded to go all-in for the next 3 hands until I was knocked out, happy with my successful satellite. Thank goodness for huge stacks.

Then FT finally acknowledged there were problems and suspended all tournaments. Then they cancelled them. Then they shut down for maintenance. Whoops. I did, however, get the $55 buy-in for the 50-50 refunded back to me, which was nice since I only paid $6.25 for it. I think that's my second best net profit on the Fifty... and definitely my best ROI :).

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BTW - Happy Fourth to all you Yanks out there. We had our fireworks on Sunday here in the Great White North.

Chased by a Shadow

It seems people have come to expect pictures of food on here now. I apologize for being so lax in my duties. I haven't made anything of tremendous interest in the past week other than some tasty white chocolate and raspberry cookies. I'll throw some pictures of them up later.

Seriously, peameal bacon, garlic havarti, sweet and smokey mustard on an onion bagel with fried potatoes just didn't seem picture-worthy. Am I too elitist with what I deem worthy of posting?

The Canada Day weekend was made up of barbeques, all of which had the standards of steak, sausage, chicken or burgers. That said, it's amazing what one can do with a series of store-bought BBQ sauces, a limited selection of herbs and spices, and a few other random ingredients when it comes to marinating chicken breasts. There's a reason I keep getting invited back.

Add more elk purchases (they were out of steaks... grrr), playing squash for the first time, fireworks, euchre, and that ugly ouster from the Big Game, and it was a good way to spend my long weeked. Still, I wish I had a cottage.

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I've got a friend who really wants to head to Vegas in September. Chances are I'm the only person who can go with him. I know I'm asking the wrong group, but does heading out to Sin City 4 times in 14 months indicate that I have a problem? Bear in mind that this trip will also include the Grand Canyon, Hoover Dam, and other non-gambling activities... as well as gambling. 5 or 6 days in Vegas. That will push my limits for sure.

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Poker. I find it quite amazing the effect that single word has. I've chronicled some of my recent luckboxery in hands here. It has gotten to the point where Hoy needs not refer to me or Bayne when talking about luck. People are telling me things like, "Hey! I got to be you in this tournament I played today! AA, KK, QQ, AK!" It's nice to be known for something :).

The string continues, but not at lofty peaks where it had previously resided. Yes, I still see some good pocket cards. In the MATH last night I caught no small amount of boards early on. To the point where I held the lead for pretty much the entire middle frame. For the 3rd straight week I went out 10th though. Out in the 300's in the Fifty-Fifty after having a more-than-necessary stack for a long while. In short, I seem to have lost my middle and late game.

I can blame only some of this on cards. I'm catching big time in the first hour, and then missing entirely afterwards. I can't sit and wait for premium hands to come, for that way lies larger blinds and smaller stacks. However, if I chase and miss then I'm giving away chips even faster. If I chase and bluff, I seem to be running into calling stations or Lucko (at least he used my chips wisely - Congrats!). There were at least two times last night where I felt I should have come over the top but didn't, and it easily cost me 2/3 of my stack. Two months ago I make that move without hesitation. I once had no small amount of backbone. I need to figure out where it has gone, because right now it feels like I've regressed a year, getting by mostly on luck.

I believe in variance of cards, but not of results. My mentality has always been that one needs to find the style that they are comfortable with and that works for them. Frequent adjustment is needed in order to improve and to avoid predictability. At no time should cards or players be an excuse for poor performance. If you get sucked out on, then you played it correctly. If you make a move and get caught, then you got caught. Straight over set happens. Set over set happens. Straight flushes over nut boats happen. Any player worth their card protector should have a reason for every play they make. There's absolutely no shame in going out early if you feel you'd play a hand exactly the same way in the same situation.

So it's back to the Shaolin temple for me to retrain. I've lost focus, and I need to work on my middle game, and very likely my end game as well. I don't like my big stack play of late, and my shortstack play has been too timid. I've started playing scared poker again, and I need to stop before it becomes habitual. I'll be playing some $1-$5 MTTs and big field SnG's so that I can focus on tactics instead of the money at risk. I know the cornucopia of donks will be overflowing at this level, but frankly, I couldn't care less how they play. The 26k and Fifty-Fifty will only be played if I satellite into them for the time being as well. I love these games, but the bankroll can't take the big -ROI % it saw last month. Naturally, the Blogger games will continue to be played. Unless I don't see improvements that is. Then it will be time for a 2-week break. I'm sure I can find something to occupy my time with now that it's summer.