The Final Step

Let's talk post-processing, the "final" step in digital photography. Often, this is the most involved, and can save even terrible photos. I rather like a shot I recently took and put through the paces, so I figured I'd document the high-level view here. Not the individual steps mind you (there are plenty), but enough to show why this is such a key part of the process. Each picture can be clicked to show a larger version.

My route home from Las Vegas flies over/around The Grand Canyon. Usually, I'm in an aisle seat, or asleep, or my camera is in the baggage compartment, or it's 1am and dark. My last trip, I made sure that none of these was an issue -- I flew home in the afternoon in a window seat on the right side of the plane, with my camera in my lap. Then I fell asleep. But I woke up just in time. One of the MANY pictures I took was this one:


Nothing special, it's washed out, poorly-composed, and looks very little like what I saw. But I loved the landscape, the plateaus and canyons and cliffs. I figured I had to be able to save something of this shot. So I ran it through a bunch of Lightroom editing to get to this:


Better,but I'm still not a fan of my crop, it's VERY blue, and the details are still ill-defined. So to Photoshop it did go for some sharpening. Then there was more editing in Lightroom after that to come to this:


Now we're getting somwhere. The colour is reaching something recognizable, the details are, well, detailed, I like the crop more, and the contrast is showing off the depth of the scene. I could have left it here and been fairly happy with it. In fact, I almost did. But then I decided to see if running it through Photomatix as a 1-image pseudo-HDR shot would add anything.

It was a good call. It cleared it up even more, brought out more detail, and was a measurable improvement. I went through another round of editing in Lightroom, now mostly tweaking, and called it day and uploaded it. Then I looked at the next day and realized how BLUE it still was. Being away from my computer, I opted to play with a few other options. On my phone with Snapseed I hit the "auto" button and was immediately sad that it had fixed it so well. Then I tried the same with Flicker's online editor and it automatically made the blue shot even better than Snapseed had.

Well, this upset me a bit, because I figured I should be better able to tune a photo on my desktop with all my fancy software better than an app on my phone or some Yahoo! web tool. So I returned home and started futzing with colours and white balance and saturations until I was able to replicate what my phone could do. This is the final product:


Deeper shadows, the blue gone, the haze lifted, the details popping out - what a difference from that original image up top. There are trade-offs to this - the noise is pretty obvious in some areas, and what noise-reduction I did apply smoothed out some of the rougher edges to the rocks. It's also developed a somewhat surreal, alien-world look, but I rather like it myself.

There's more that could be done here. I could work on specific shadows, do some localized noise reduction, manually edit details. I may still do some these things. Eventually though, I have to step back and stop, otherwise it's a paintbrush on individual pixels that nobody will ever notice.

Of course, not every shot needs all these steps, and a lot of an editing workflow becomes second nature over time. Still, the fact that I go through every shot I take to one degree or another has really slowed down the rate I post photos. But then again, it's also made me somewhat more picky in what I choose to actually show.

Canadian Cell Costs - Part I

I've been ranting enough on Twitter about this, so I figure it deserves its own blog posts. First, the background:

For around 13 years I was with Bell Canada for my cell service. From a monochrome-screened bar phone, to a slider, to a shiny LG flip phone, to my iPhone 4, and briefly, a 5s.

I've never really had much of a complaint with regards to the service (other than my folks' place being between towers in a bit of a dead zone), but man have their prices ever sucked. My first phone was under my mother's work plan because it was a huge improvement over what was publicly available and my company didn't yet have an individual cell plan deal in place. I moved to my own work's corporate plan when I upgraded phones.

The problems started with the next move, to the LG. I wanted a new phone. This meant a new plan. I said I wanted something close to what I currently had. They gave me a plan that I shouldn't have been able to get (I had no idea at the time). The next bill, Bell changed my plan without telling me. I didn't notice until a few bills later, and Bell refused to make any changes or refund the difference.

Luckily, I had an ace up my sleeve in a friend who worked high enough in the Bell hierarchy to complain on my behalf and get actually helpful people to call me. The problem was resolved beyond my satisfaction and I was happy. The next upgrade to an iPhone meant the inclusion of data - that whole move was actually painless, just add $25/month for 500MB of data. Not a great price, but the best option at the time based on how cheap my voice plan was.

Then came the end of that contract.

My Bell friend and I have long since drifted apart, so calling him up out of the blue would just be rude. Instead I opted to go through the regular channels. It consistently went something like this:

"My contract is up soon. I want to upgrade my phone, which I know means I need a new plan. Here's what your competition is offering. Can you match it?"

"Nope."

"So for 13 years I've been a loyal customer, paying my bills on time, using extra services like roaming plans, and you can't even make an offer?"

"Nope"

"I guess I'll be leaving then."

"Okay, have a nice day."

Wow. Considering I have my Internet connection and landline with them too, this was... surprising.

So I hemmed and hawed and finally, after months of wanting to toss my phone against a wall every day, walked into the Apple store and paid full price for an unlocked, non-subsidized phone. It was worth it to not be tied to any of the carriers in this country.

Then I did the math and discovered something - there are no real phone subsidies.

If you bring your own phone to the big 3 providers (Bell, Rogers, Telus) - you get $20/month off your bill on a two-year contract. That's $480 you're paying towards your phone.

iPhone 5s 32GB - $819. On contract? $329. Difference? $490. $10 in subsidies from the phone companies, if you don't include time value of money calculations. The rest is you paying $20 more a month to get a "cheap" phone up front.

Whoopdeefuckingdoo. That's not a subsidy, that's a phone mortgage.

I'll continue this in another post with some rough comparisons between my options, and how I think these guys will hurt themselves in the name of protectionism and short-term greed.

WPBT Report

Lookee! A report! Kind of.

Insert all other reports here. Arrived, ate, played poker, saw good people, gambled, drank a bit, ate more, left. Good eggs, etc, etc..

I mean, why be repetitive? You know how these things go by now. Okay, fiiiiine, here are the highlights of a busy 5.5 days.

Small group this year. Around 40 in the tournament. The group of veterans of previous gatherings who were in New Orleans certainly cut the numbers down a bit. So be it. People can do what they want.

Brought my friend along so she could experience what I always rave about. This led to a tour of the classics for me.

Robuchon was as incredible as ever. This time the chef came out to talk to another table, and I noticed the tri-coloured collar on his jacket. The sign of a M.O.F. - the highest order of achievement of artistry in France (for many categories, cuisine among them). This should have come as no surprise, yet I was still impressed.

é was it's usual creative best, save for the annoying guest who felt it was his duty to educate his friends (often incorrectly) about what they were eating. The staff was visibly annoyed/amused, and the sous-chef for the evening focused on us as it was clear the other party couldn't hear him over their braying companion.

Craftsteak was delicious, even if we had to cover the cost of flakes who bailed last-minute, despite my rather clear exhortations to let me know ahead of time. Next time I think we aim for multiple small groups.

Raku was solid, but disappointing only because I've been there before and it didn't live up to past visits. A clearly missing broth course (that bowl and spoon wasn't for fried fish, I guarantee you), and the definite impression of at least one or two more courses missing (asparagus? chicken on a bed of spinach? where were you?). What was served was excellent, but if costs have gone up, then I wouldn't mind paying a bit more to get the full experience.

The last night's meal was at FIX, courtesy of Grange, and it was a great way to end the trip. Good company, good drinks, imported brandy (thanks Lori!) all adds up to a fine meal.

Also grabbed some fries and a beer with OhCaptain, Absinthetics, Nickerson, and Atarifan in there too.

Ziplining was freezing, but fun nonetheless. Maybe I'll get some video of my legs flying through the air up here sometime. Or some pictures at least.

The Neon Museum on Sunday was also pretty chilly, but the place looks far more orderly since the visitor's center went in. Pics eventually.

Managed to grab a bottle of can't-find-at-home liquor (Swedish Punsch) at Total Wine. Struck out on high-end whiskeys this time, but what can you do? I got good beer, some of it even free from Nate/Atarifan (yay backpack of alcohol!). Sadly, I didn't catch up with Grange in time again to snag an offered free bottle of Templeton. Them's the breaks... Superman slots were being too kind to me, and night photography outside the Bellagio is hard to pass up.

Even hit the north outlets and bought clothes and sunglasses. Although I think I could have got the shades cheaper back home.

Saw Beatles Love for the second time (first time was... wow, 8 years ago), and actually stayed awake through it (yay caffeine mints!). Great show, great seats.

Saw what's become of the IP. Bones are still there, but it's a scarily sterile place now.

Went out halfway in the tournament, but my last-longer partner Vinnay went out as Gigli on 0 hours of sleep in the previous 30ish hours, so I don't feel too bad. Then made a bit of profit playing cash at Monte Carlo with CK, Grange, Penner, Mondo, Katie, Matt, and some random others, I recall Drizz railing for a bit too. Hope I'm not missing anyone. Oh yah, and Bayne finally joined us too. This is where some Edmontonian convinced Grange and Katie to bet on a terrible hockey game.Suckers.

Railed BrainMC at Pai Gow, but when I finally sat down to a game, only Penner was still around. It's for the best, as the dealers hated me and kept taking my money away, so I may have been dubbed worlds worst Pai Gow player if there were more witnesses.

Some craps was played and some slots. A wee touch of bad video poker too. All told, I ended up a small amount. Enough to cover... well... not much. Gas? Resort fees? But it's better than a loss. And as always, not the point of the trip.

See you all same time next year? Super.

Happy Yanksgiving

Find Your Targets

I was watching the local news last night, mostly to see if anything new was going on in Ford Nation.

They ran a story about how His Worship Laughable Bumblefuck still has strong supporters and showed interviews with 3 or 4 people who more or less made excuses.

"There's been nothing proven in the courts."

"I think he's doing a good job, and if this doesn't interfere, who cares?"

"Everyone makes mistakes, we're all human."

etc..

Now, for the majority of viewers, this may have seemed fine. I noticed something though. I knew the neighbourhood all these people were being interviewed in. I used to live nearby, and I worked a couple summers across the road. All these people-in-the-street were found in the same place - directly in front of a pub, in the middle of the day. Each one looked... off. Unkempt, eyes glazed, and speech a wee bit slurred.

Yup, they found a bunch of drunks and asked them what they thought of Rob Ford.

At least we have an excuse for his base now.

Or Else What?

As a kid I remember it occurring to me that "or else" could mean nothing. Counting to 3 without a defined punishment at the end means that 4 could be what comes next.

I often find myself also thinking how delicate the agreed-upon rules of society are. If you walk out of a store with a bag full of stuff, that's shoplifting. I'd like to think most people don't steal because they know it's wrong. Many probably don't because they're afraid of getting arrested. But the reality is that if you went somewhere you rarely frequent and randomly walked out of a small store without paying for anything, that you'd probably never be punished.

An extreme example? Maybe. But so many rules are set up with the expectation people will act decently. The line "make me" or "what are you gonna do about it?" come to mind.

Which brings me to Rob Ford.

Toronto's Mayor's foibles and fuck ups have been well-documented. The latest twist is his friend, Alexander Lisi, a "stand-up guy" by Ford's own written admission, has been arrested for extortion, drug trafficking, and probably a few other things. The press got the documentation for the search warrants released, and they were revealing. Photos of Lisi and Ford going through spy-level package drops and meets, possibly drinking and driving, and generally looking shifty. Along with these came the admission from the Chief of Police that the cops also now had a copy of the crack-smoking video in their possession. The video Ford said didn't exist. The one that Ford had hoped had been mostly forgotten.

Oops.

So with this revelation, the media descended on City Hall. Ford came out, mumbled his way through excuses, and said he wasn't going to resign, because there was no reason for him to.

He's kind of right.

There are no criminal charges against Ford. Even if he WAS smoking crack in the video (and his lawyer has already said it wasn't crack in the pipe, or more accurately, that they can't prove it was crack, because straws offer good grasping support), that's not enough evidence to charge him with anything. It just means he's a liar, which most people already knew.

If you were accused of a crime and told to quit your job, would you? Or would you defend yourself? Especially if there was no actual charge, just the public casting you as guilty.

Ford SHOULD temporarily step aside to avoid being a further distraction, with the promise to return when his name is cleared. But he won't do that either.

For he knows full well that there's nothing anybody can do to him. Council can't have him removed. There's no recall option. The Provincial Government can only remove him if he's charged with (or convicted of?) a crime. He also knows the support he has left is among die-hard morons who would stand behind him as he threw puppies at a button that would nuke the city. So in short, what can be done to him? He'll just keep deflecting and denying and hoping it all blows over and is forgotten.

What this will do is reignite the investigations into his life and past. He will have no privacy, and no secrets. He knows the police are following and recording him. His friends are rapidly getting arrested. His allies are abandoning him to save their own hides. It will end up being him, his brother, David Price, and maybe one or two council members who are too stupid to get away.

Oh, and I expect Lisi will look for a plea bargain to avoid court, which could keep the video under wraps indefinitely. Because for some reason, the Ford family seems to be scarier to criminals than jail.

Here's hoping he doesn't see a second term.

Free Agent Frenzy!

They call it a frenzy because they can't think of other F words that work. Fustercluck?

It's free agent day in the NHL. Lots of players get overpaid and everyone gets to complain about their team. Man, hockey is truly the sport that never has an off-season.

The Leafs managed to re-sign their #1 Centre, Tyler Bozak. They also picked up David Clarkson, a power winger, Toronto native, and one-time 30-goal scorer. Yesterday they dumped Grabovski to free up some money. I like Grabo. He'll do fine wherever he lands.

So, as is typical in Hogtown, the Leafs fans are bitching about the signings.

First, Clarkson - 7 years and $5.25m/yr. The general consensus is that 7 years is a long contract. Especially in Leafs land. I agree. But those extra 2 years are what it takes to get the top UFA this season. Hell, $5.25 million is a bargain in this market. The Leafs aren't looking for a 30-goal scorer in him either. 15-20 goals and his tough play will be enough to make fans happy. Lay down some hits. Get knocked down and jump back up. Occasionally put the puck in the net when it matters, and he'll be loved. But of course, the fans are jumping on this as a terrible overpayment for a mediocre player who will never pay off. He's actually exactly what the Leafs like and the fans cheer for. Sigh.

Remember, these are the fans that think Phil Kessel is awful. Because they're idiots.

Which leads to Kessel's buddy - Tyler Bozak. They were dubbed Bert & Ernie in the locker room. They live together (Bozak didn't have an apartment and the season was short, so Phil offered him a spare room.). They've played on the same line for 2.5 seasons now. It's called chemistry. It's what makes a team.

And $4.2 million for 5 years is just fine. It's a small overpayment for the guy, but hardly ridiculous. But the knock on Bozie is that he's not really a first-line centre. He doesn't have the size, or the points apparently.

Fuck that.

I've covered this before. The top-line centres that had better numbers than Bozak tended to have names that will be in the hall of fame one day, or played with  a pair of guys who sit atop every scoring category. And guess what? None of them were available. So if you lose Bozak, you end up hoping Kadri is ready to play every day on the first line. He may not be there yet.

Bozak had a decent faceoff percentage. He made plays happen. And he ALWAYS knows where his linemates are. He took every damned defensive zone faceoff.  He was a major key to the Leafs getting to game 7 in the first round, and his absence was a possible reason why they couldn't get to round 2.

Sure, I'd love a Crosby or Staal or Stamkos or Datsyuk, Getzlaf, or Toews on our top line. Ain't gonna happen. So I'm happy with a solid all-around 2-way player with some heart and a desire to play for my team any day. Leave it to Kessel, JVR, Lupul, and Kadri to rack up the points. Or hell, maybe Bozak's one of those guys who will actually try and be worthy of his contract and prove all the naysayers wrong. He stepped it up in the playoffs when the "we lack a centre" talk was getting louder, here's to a career year in 2013-2014.

So he doesn't fit in the big #1 Centre mould?  So what? Change the game. He's a playmaker who can win faceoffs. With a top-10 scorer on his wing that likes playing with him. If a team can't make that work, then the coach has issues. If the fans can't see past the "he's not 1st line centre" mantra, then they should open their eyes, because guess what? He's ours.

$4.2m/year for 5 years? I can live with that.

Musicals!

Gotcha! Just one musical - The Book of Mormon.

I shall sum up my review thusly -- meh.

I shall put some blame on hype. Some more on the touring cast and sound guy being unable to spell enunciation, let alone pronounce it clearly enough for me to understand it.

But most of it goes on the show. An uneven, poorly-connected tale that relies on occasional shock value to create the illusion that you just saw a great show.

I didn't. I saw an alright show. Adequate. Not worth the $130 for a good seat in the 1st balcony.

The songs dragged on, the jokes were repetitive, and the story was edited to the point of being barely coherent. Which is a shame, because the underlying tale had a lot going for it. False belief, seeking meaning, logical fallacies in religious texts, opening one's mind, the selfish nature of evangelism, the core purpose of helping people, etc, are all messages the world could use exposure to.

Yes, there were some funny spots. There were even a few hilarious ones. There was clever use of jokes to misdirect for another, unexpected joke. There was the trademark Parker/Stone shock humour that was great the few times they were actually able to use it. I love irreverent humour, and they did nail it occasionally.

But it was all too little and was overcome by the larger, mediocre whole. There was maybe 30 minutes of funny vs 60 minutes of "is this song still going on?"

Give me Spamalot or Evil Dead: The Musical any day. They may not have anything under the surface, but they were hilarious and entertaining. I have both their original cast recordings on my shelf. In fact, I left the theatre last night singing Evil Dead songs, because the melodies shared so much with what I'd just seen. I didn't buy the Book of Mormon CD. 12 hours later I barely remember a single song.

Although "Hasa Diga Eebowai" was pretty good.

Credit and Context

Hrm, a post on Blogger about a gripe that was catalyzed by Tumblr. Maybe I'll tweet about it.

Tumblr - I'm still not sure I "get" it, but I have one that I post at infrequently. It's a decent way to find some interesting stuff that doesn't necessarily make it to Twitter. One of its major problems, however, is the lack of proper sourcing. Lots of pictures, comics, gifs, etc., fly through it without being attributed to the original source. I've seen a couple of my photos on there with narry a link to my Flickr page or mention of me. I assume similar things are happening elsewhere on the Web as well.

[there was a part in here about Tumblr making it hard to anchor to the original source. This seems to be something they fixed, so that part is gone now.]

There are users out there that do try though.  The Frogman comes to mind as someone who tries their best (or at least, his assistant does) to find out where things are from originally instead of just hitting the reblog button. Likely because he creates a great deal of original work that gets ripped off.

Wil Wheaton is another who has championed sourcing your material. But he often falls prey to the beast of "it's easier to hit reblog".

Case in point, this recent post.

This one caught my eye because I instantly recognized the location. It's the Distillery District in Toronto. That truck is all over the place. I've taken some shots myself. Thinking that "hey, Wil retumbld a shot from my city", I clicked on who he got it from. It was from an actress, who as far as I could tell was neither a ballerina, nor photographer, nor from Toronto. It seemed unlikely she was the original source. In very light grey and a tiny font, hidden amongst the tags of her post, was a "source" link - to a Tumblr of a 19-year-old dancer, or at least dance enthusiast. Okay, this seemed to be getting somewhere. Except that there was nothing else like this in her feed, and no more links to earlier sources. It seemed that this was just someone who liked the shot and put it up without attribution.

To be fair to Wil, he had a more visible link to this same source on his post

So I spent a whopping 5 seconds copying the link to Google's search-by-image tool, and found this article in Chloe Magazine about Heather Ogden, a Principal Dancer of the National Ballet of Canada. The second image in was the one in question. With two others from the Distillery District. Photography was credited to Aleksandar Antonijevic - whom another search revealed is another Principal Dancer in the National Ballet, who also happens to be a photographer.
 
It took far longer to ramble on here than to actually find where this image came from. It's really not that hard. It's even easier if the original poster includes a link in the first place. I mean, I have 10 links in this post alone. They're really easy to use.

Cracked

If you still read here, you've seen my rants against Mayor Laughable Bumblefuck, AKA Rob Ford. If you pay attention to any of the same information streams I do, then you know there's a video out there that appears to show our beloved mayor smoking crack with drug dealers in what's generally considered one of Toronto's worst neighbourhoods.

The saddest part about this is that it's not really all that surprising.

Alright, fine, nobody expected crack. Cocaine had been rumoured for a while. Getting drunk wasn't uncommon for him. He had been pulled over in the States once possessing weed. But crack? Really? Our millionaire moron mayor smoking crack? It'd be funny if it wasn't so pathetic (okay, it's still funny).  This will all be rambly from here on out. What else is new.


It's day 7 since this all started, and there has been one comment from the Mayor. He claimed this was the Toronto Star going after him and that the claim is ridiculous. His brother Doug, a councilman, spoke yesterday with what sounded more like a campaign speech than anything of substance. Oh, and he attacked the Star as well.

As an aside, it should be pointed out that the Toronto Star is the most-read newspaper in Canada. It's generally well-respected, if a bit left-leaning. It isn't a tabloid, or a rag, or known for wild accusations and ill-researched propaganda.  That's the Sun (the firmly right-wing tabloid counterpart that Ford loves). The way the brothers Ford have talked about it for the past few years though might leave the impression it's the National Enquirer and Daily Mail and NY Post all in one. It isn't.

Also absent in these attacks is mention of Gawker's independent description of the video. That would lend credence to the story of course.

So, a week since this story broke, and no real comment from the accused Mayor. I'll grant the long weekend to him as time to circle the wagons and meet with his lawyers. But it's 3 days now since that ended. Indications are that his lawyers told him to shut the fuck up, and he's listening for a change.

Of course, none of that looks good on him. I mean, if I hadn't smoked crack and someone had video of someone who looked like me smoking crack, I'd deny it immediately.

Any hope that this will go away is foolish. It's only getting bigger.

Of course, with everything else this dipshit of a politician has done, who knows what effect this will have long-term?

Although he has lost his real job - high school football coach. The one he spent more time at than his elected office. The one that had him hire football assistants on the city payroll. The one that got him booted once from office for raising funds using city materials. I imaging being told he can't coach his team any more to be the bigger blow to him than any political fallout. Because priorities.

My guess for what will happen. Eventually he will have to speak. Either because Gawker buys the video and posts it, or his team finally figures out a way to confront this. It will go like this:

Blahblahblah I've done great things for this city blahdebloopbeblah The Toronto Star hates me and has been harrassing my family blahblahblahblah the left-wing commies are out to get me blahblahblah I am not perfect and have made mistakes blahdeblah nothing in my personal life has affected my performance at City Hall, I fight for the taxpayers, I'm doing a great job blablahblah I am stepping down as Mayor because of the pressure from the media on my family and it's affect on my health or some bullshit.

A video of him smoking from a pipe isn't nearly enough for a criminal charge. An admission of guilt might be problematic. So he won't directly admit anything while admitting it. Or, maybe his blubbering honesty will come through and he'll actually admit to it, seek help, and still blame the Star and the leftists.

One other alternative: A conspiracy gets tossed out. He was drugged and then given the crack when he was under the influence of something else in order to blackmail him. He's the victim here. He confronted these guys to protect his at-risk players, and they tricked him.

Regardless, this isn't the last we've heard of this buffoon.

Hey, local news is now covered with coverage of a city Councillor getting pulled over and failing  a breathalyzer and getting a warning. That should buy Rob another day.

A Learning Experience

I'll keep telling myself it's not over. That it's just a 3-game win streak. One game at a time. Hope reigns eternal in Leafland.

But my Leafs are down 3 games to 1 against the Bruins. This isn't actually unexpected. Once the matchups were known, the jokes flew. "I'll enjoy all 3 games" was a popular one. The reality is that the Leafs have had a hard time with Boston for a long time. They're a solid, hard-nosed, suffocating team with great chemistry built from years of playing together. The Leafs are a young team with limited experience that's really only had half a season to get to know each other and their coach.

Still, my guys have played some great hockey, and even with reality in the back of my mind, I want to believe. I sat on my couch with my Clark jersey and Leafs cap on. I reminded myself to breathe time and again. I scared the cats. I'm sure I scared the neighbours. And in the end, I nearly collapsed with Boston's overtime goal. Krejci Temple-of-Doomed my heart out of my chest with his hat trick.

If it had been a blowout, I would have sighed. But this was sudden death overtime. This was an evenly-matched game. This was the Leafs showing great pressure, hitting posts, and Rask somehow stopping them time and again. This was all kinds of anticipation and joy crushed in an instant. Hell, I even thought O'Byrne had knocked the puck off Krejci's stick at the last second. It hurt.

But, like this series, like this whole season, this is a learning experience for my team. Of the whole team, only 9 guys have ever seen the playoffs before. That's some serious inexperience. Carlyle can preach and teach and drill, but until these kids see what happens when they don't listen, they won't learn. This is the school of hard knocks for them.

Kadri's learned that he can't be a fucking superstar if it means he'll give away the puck.

Reimer's learning that any weakness will be exploited, and that he has to see through bodies.

Gardiner is starting to show why he could be a great offensive defenceman with some more seasoning and maturity.

Grabovski's showing that all he's ever wanted is the chance to play in the second season.

Lupul and Kessel are showing great on-ice leadership.

And Phaneuf has been reminded that high-risk plays in playoff overtimes are fucking idiotic.

They're learning. It's apparent every single game. On Friday they get another lesson, and their hardest test yet - how to face elimination, and how to do it in a hostile environment. This will be mentally hard on them. The one-game-at-a-time belief will HAVE to sink in for them to have a chance. They'll have to remember every lesson, and summon every ounce of skill and discipline. And if, by some chance, they find themselves in a game 7? They can't get cocky.

But in the more likely event that I won't be distracted during my Monday night poker tournament, they'll have to take these lessons home with them. When they come back to training camp next season they'll have to remember everything they've learned and be ready to build on it. Carlyle's messages will mean more. They'll have the weight of experience behind them. They'll be prefaced with "remember when you did this in the Boston series?" The roar of the crowd will still be in their hearts, the taste of the playoffs in their mouths. The expectations of Leaf Nation will sit heavier on their shoulders. They'll have war stories between them, bonds made stronger by crushing hits and heartbreaking goals.

And they'll only get better.

Pressureless Playoffs

Nine years.

2004.

Lots of things have changed since then, but this isn't about that.

This is about relaxation. This is about relief. This is about my Leafs being back in the playoffs.

They clinched on Saturday. Their seed is still up for debate, but 5th place vs the Habs looks likely. Which, in reality, is about the most ideal matchup possible this year. Oh, the Leafs and Canadiens, one of the greatest rivalries in all sports, haven't met in the playoffs since 1979.

Even though it's been nine years since the Buds were last wearing skates in May, and 34 years since they saw the bleu, blanc, et rouge across the ice from them, there's no pressure here.

Because let's be honest -- they shouldn't even be here.

They got outshot 50-22 in their last game, and won 4-1.

They're 25-15-5, with no shootout wins. They were outshot in TWENTY of those 25 wins. That's obviously 1st in the league for that stat. They've been outshot 1461-1202, a 259 shot differential. The ONLY team with a worse diff is Edmonton, and they're in the shitter. It's been more than a decade since a team saw the playoffs with a ratio this bad.

They also lead the league in blocked shots. So in the ol' pucks directed towards the net concept - they're terrible.

Penalties - they're 2nd in penalty minutes, and 1st in majors. This is a team that likes to beat your team up. They get away with it because they also happen to have the 3rd best penalty killing unit in the league. Oh, and they also have more hits than anyone else by a mile. Truculence and aggression and all that.

Shooting percentages are out of whack. Kadri is shooting 18.6% and leads the team in goals. Bozak is shooting 19.7%, JVR 13.3%, Lupul, who everyone in Toronto now agrees is the best player on the ice when he's healthy, is shooting 27%! For perspective, Crosby's shooting percentage is 12.1%, Stamkos is 19%, and Ovechkin is 14.2%.

In fact, all the fancy stats say the Leafs are in an unsustainable season. Good thing it was only 48 games then. The question becomes - can they carry this unexpected success into the playoffs?

Maybe.

Lupul is back (again, again), and one would think relatively fresh with only 13 games played this season. He hasn't been stellar in his 3 games post-concussion, but he does have two goals in there. One from a hard drive to the net, the next from a stolen puck and mini break. Kadri has been in a slump since March, but got a flukey goal on Saturday, which may get the monkey off his tiny baby-faced back. Kessel has been quietly been playing the best overall hockey of his career all season, despite whining from the fans who used to bitch about how one-dimensional he was. Phaneuf has played his best season as a Leaf, showing maturity and eating up all kinds of minutes.

Then there's Reimer. Since the trade deadline he's basically said "Roberto Who? Mikka what?" with his play. 2.12 GAA, .939 SV % in April. The guy is standing on his head, and the players around his net are helping him look even better. Since he re-learned how to catch, he's been nearly unbeatable. A hot goalie heading into the playoffs? Leading a team with 4 legitimate offensive threats across two lines, and a whole team willing to block your shots and crush you into the boards? Yah, I'll take that. Fancy stats be damned.

The playoffs are a different brand of hockey. They're tougher. There's no quarter given. Every game is a must-win. The pressure starts at 10 and ratchets up with each round. And the reality is - Leafs fans are just happy to be there. Everything else is gravy right now. The team knows it. They're loose. They're happy. They have a coach that will whip them into the right mindset if they falter. This could be fun.

Besides, if my guys somehow, against all reason, miraculously go all the way? It won't count to anyone outside of Toronto, after all, it wasn't a real season.

Shut Up About the Goaltending

Since last season (and honestly, for a number of seasons), the cry has been that the Leafs need a bona fide goalie. Montreal has Price, Calgary has Kiprusoff, New Jersey has Brodeur, Pittsburgh has Fleury, etc.. The Leafs have Reimer and Scrivens. We haven't had a legit #1 since Belfour at the tail end of his career.

Reimer raised eyebrows a couple seasons back, covering when Gustavsson and Giguere were having issues. He did so well, he became the starter to finish the season in an attempt to get the Leafs into the playoffs. He was the #1 goalie last season, started strong, and then went down with "concussion-like symptoms". He returned before he was 100% and didn't play the same. Throw in some serious head-fucking by goaltending "guru" François Allaire, who only knows one style, and "Optimus Reim" was looking like he was about done.

Allaire's gone. Reimer is healthy. I had faith that he could return to form. I seemed to be alone.

Calls for Luongo from Vancouver were loud. Kadri and Bozak for Roberto! Gardiner can be traded! Kessel for Bobby Lu! Give me a break.

But still, the fans and the papers go on and on about Toronto's need for an established goaltender. Apparently they're all brain dead.

Alright, maybe a veteran PRESENCE would help. Like Giguere was, or Cujo's brief second stint. Someone who can tell the younger guys how to prepare, how to deal with the day to day. But you know what? You don't need someone who dresses every night for that. You need a guy on staff, not the roster. See if you can grab Joseph from his Kingston Frontenacs goaltending coach gig. Hell, some nights even bringing Johnny Bower into the locker room for a pep talk would probably be enough.

Because Reimer and Scrivens are doing just fine.

Stats:

Reimer: 20 Starts, 2.52 GAA, .920 SV %, 13-4-4
Scrivens: 16 Starts,  2.59 GAA, .918 SV %, 7-8-0
Average: 2.56 GAA, .919 SV%

Among goalies who have started 16 or more games: Reimer is 19th, and Scrivens 21st out of 33. Not great, but not terrible. Especially if you keep in mind that the Leafs score 3.11 goals per game (4th in the league behind Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Tampa), that's over half a goal/game of room to play with.

Oh, but the Leafs give up a lot of shots. A ton. 31.8/game - 4th worst in the league. So those save percentages? Reimer is 9th, Scrivens 13th. Again - goalies with 16 or more starts.

Wins are relatively easy to rank. Toronto is 7th overall in the league in wins.

But wins/start? Reimer is 6th. Scrivens? A far less impressive 26th.

So, with all that info out there. The question becomes - who the hell are people looking for?

Obviously the franchise goalies aren't going anywhere, so the Prices and Fleurys can be ignored. Also, any team in the playoff hunt isn't going to part with their starter, so guys like Backstrom or Rask are going anywhere. Also forget anyone in the East helping the Leafs. So Ottawa ain't sending Bishop our way.

So who does that leave? Let's go with stats.

GAA, better than Reimer and theoretically possible: Roberto Luongo? Ray Emery? One of Anaheim's tenders? Yah... out of those, Luongo is the only one actually available.

Better than Reimer in SV %? Hrmm... nobody. Not a one. Anderson is the only goaltender who would be worth the upgrade (.952), and he's not moving from the Senators, plus he's been injured for half the season. Seriously, even Crawford has only a .005 better %. It's a tight group at the top. Oh, and Luongo? .904 - 28th.

How about wins/games started?  Unless Chicago's got Emery on the block or Anaheim wants to give up Fasth for a 3rd round pick. Not much out there. Luongo? Has won exactly half his starts vs Reimer's 65%, which as stated, is 6th in the league.

Actually, Emery keeps popping up. He's about the same at SV% as Reimer, and beats him in the other two categories I'm looking at. Except he was a head case in Ottawa, bounced around after that, is having a career season, and plays for CHICAGO. All strikes against his being worth anything away from that team. Besides, the Hawks aren't sending him anywhere.

Oh, one other - Tomas Vokoun. Better in every category (2.33, .922, 77%), and he's Fleury's backup. Consistent SV%, 2nd best year for his GAA. Oh, but also 36 years old. Of course, he's not an every day guy, is in the same conference, and is exactly the kind of backup you want for a playoff run. So again, not going anywhere, and not worth particularly much.

So that's a long way of saying there's not much out there. Bernier from the Kings? Sure, except how is he a more proven variable than Reimer? 9 starts this season? His numbers are generally better, and he's definitely an upgrade over Scrivens, but he's not a proven starter, and stepping into Toronto for a hockey player is like playing for the Yankees in baseball - you are in a media maelstrom. Does LA's backup have the mental toughness for that? Do you take that chance?

Reality is harsh. Toronto's goaltending may not be top-tier. For as good a tandem as they are, our guys don't offer the consistent backbone of a Fleury or Price or Rask or Crawford or Miller. But there also aren't any of those guys out there to be had for Toronto. Sure, there are intangibles in a bona fide starter that don't show up on stats sheets, but with 12 games left in the season? A playoff spot FINALLY looking realistic? Frankly, no change between the pipes is worth it right now. We can revisit in the off-season.

Leafs Update

Since my last post:

- Kostka gets a break in the press box and Liles plays (called it)
- Lupul back Saturday
- Steckel traded to Anaheim for Ryan Lasch and a 7th rounder in 2014 (I'll take a "called it" on that too)
- 4th loss in a row, unbelievably key game against Winnipeg on Saturday

Doesn't look like Lupul will start on the 1st line. No surprise there. 3rd with Kadri and Kulemin looking likely, with Frattin and MacArthur on the 2nd with Grabo. 1st unchanged with Bozak, Kessel, and JVR.

Know what? That's a helluva set of lines there. I really like Kadri between Lupul and Kulemin. Kulemin can't score to save his life (not bad on assists though), but he's a great defensive forward, which gives Kadri and Lupul more freedom to take a chance or two, knowing there are essentially 2.5 defensemen behind them. Of course, this requires either Lupul or Kulemin playing on the wrong wing. One would hope Carlyle learned his lesson in Anaheim and LEAVES LUPUL ON THE LEFT. Kulemin can't be offensively worse on his off wing.

Grabo's speed and creativity might finally see the expected dividends with Frattin and Mac alongside him. 1st line speaks for itself right now.

At last Carlyle has, at least temporarily, dropped the "keep the Russians together" concept. Of course, all this could change by game time tomorrow.

Now, if these lines take off, don't expect much movement. Otherwise, Lupul will inevitably be on the 1st line again (where he belongs), with JVR and MacArthur being somewhere on the 2nd and 3rd.

The Inn is Full

Long Leafs post. You've been warned.

I was going to write this yesterday, but opted to lose some bar poker instead. Still, the idea doesn't change that much on the heels of a 3-game losing streak for my boys in blue & white.

The Leafs have a roster problem. Too many players.

There are two noticeable absences in the line-up at the moment - Joffery Lupul and Jake Gardiner. Lupul was our number two scorer last year, and the top line of him and Kessel was unstoppable - and one of the only bright spots of the season. Three games in this year he took a Dion Phaneuf shot off the forearm and has been out ever since waiting for the fracture to heal. There seems to be a perpetual "1-2 week" period until he's ready to play these days. He skated with the team on Monday, but is still not 100%. This hasn't been a problem to date because others have picked up the slack. Van Riemsdyk  has worked well with Kessel on the top line. MacArthur and Kadri have chemistry on the 3rd. Frattin was shooting out the lights before he went down for a couple weeks, but he's back now and showing some good hustle. Still, Lupul's presence is missed - the guy has speed, power, finesse, is hard to move, and offered plenty of options when skating down the ice with Kessel on the the other side. Either could score with ease. Not to mention he constantly comes off as the most articulate and intelligent of the Leafs in interviews and is a leader in the dressing room.

Gardiner is our rookie phenom on D. With lots of speed and stick-handling ability he's got skills that our largely stay-at-home defense is lacking. He came back to the team too quickly after a concussion in the minors, and was sent back down to finish getting up to speed. He's been proving that he's ready to come back ever since.

So what's the hold up? Waivers.

The Leafs have a full roster and only 3 players who can be sent down to the minors without having to clear waivers - Nazem Kadri, Leo Komarov, and Korbinian Holzer. Kadri ain't going anywhere, being tied for the team lead with 25 points. Komarov is a hitting machine and the irritant every team loves to have. That leaves Holzer, another rookie D-man, who just got a 2-year extension. He's had a rough week, and was never good enough to justify staying in the lineup game-in and game-out with someone like Gardiner waiting in the wings. Until you look deeper.

Up in the press box sits John-Michael Liles and Mike Komisarek.  Two veteran Ds who haven't seen the ice in over a month. Komi is a failed acquisition who will be bought out once the season is done if he's not traded first. He COULD be sent down without fear of clearing waivers (because nobody would take him, and if they did, we'd be fine with it), except for his no-movement clause. Whoops. I've never been sure why Liles hasn't been given another shot on the ice though. He's got good speed, and good offensive production, but perhaps doesn't have a strong enough defensive game for Carlyle.

So, 1 player that can be easily moved down, 2 players that should be on the ice. That math doesn't add up.

There are a few things in play here that may not be obvious. First, Gardiner has 3 games to play in the big leagues before he can't go back down. So if he's brought up, he's up for good. Throw in an already jammed-up defense (8 D on the 23-man roster right now), and this complicates matters. Franson, Phaneuf, and Fraser aren't coming off the ice. Gunnarsson and Kostka COULD see time in the press box for a break if the coach had any faith in the $8.4 million in players already there. That leaves Holzer. I'll get to that in a second. Point being - there isn't room for the guy without a move.

So why not Holzer? Because Lupul HAS to come back, and Holzer is the insurance for that. Gardiner CAN stay with Marlies this season if need be. It sucks for him, but them's the breaks from a contract perspective. I'm sure Nonis and company are letting him know how much they want to bring him up, but just can't. Lupul doesn't have a choice. They're taking their time with his recovery (a lot of times, this sort of injury would see a guy back at 80-90% with a soft cast or something. But they're going for the full 100% here) because it takes pressure off the roster situation, and the team is doing fine so far. If a trade can't be made, then Holzer goes down to clear up space for Lupul, with Liles coming down from the press box to fill the spot on the blue line. If Holzer goes down now for Gardiner, then the Leafs are in a bad spot trade-wise. They'll HAVE to make a trade, and that shifts the advantage to the other side of the deal. Every GM will know that the Leafs have to clear roster space, so they'll offer less for more. That's not acceptable. So Holzer stays up... as leverage.

Ideally, the Leafs would love to trade Komisarek, or possiibly Liles. The fans would like to see Kulemin gone, despite him being a solid defensive forward (he's paid too much for that role, based off one offensively productive season). Any of those would go for reasonable draft picks or prospects, but we could potentially get an overpaid roster player if the fit is right. Someone like a Bozak, MacArthur, or Franson are also possibilities. The first two because they're UFAs at the end of the season and worth something now, the last because he's worth more than he's ever been and we're heavy on defense with Gardiner waiting and Morgan Reilly coming up quickly. Although the pressure to make the playoffs this year could prevent some of those trades from happening (do you trade your top faceoff guy, who takes EVERY defensive-zone faceoff? Do you trade one of your best playmakers? Or your top offensive defenseman?) Will anybody offer anything worthwhile for Komi, Liles, or Kulemin and their contracts? Will the Leafs have to carry salary for those trades to happen?

Also, how does Lupul's return change things? He goes on the top line sooner rather than later (maybe not game 1, but by game 4). JVR to the second? Where does that put Kulemin? JVR to 3rd and MacArthur to where?  The lineup shakes up significantly on Lupul's return. Only after that disturbance will the Leafs really know what they need and who they don't. So it's yet another reason to hold off bringing up Gardiner. Lupul returns and you get 1 or 2 weeks to assess your full team before the trade deadline.

So my call? Barring some unexpected trade (ie.- David Steckel for a 5th rounder, or someone comes calling for Komisarek, or Kostka is even an outside possibility), or this losing streak carrying on (creating panic moves), Holzer stays on the team until Lupul is ready to return. Then Holzer goes down, then trades happen, then maybe Gardiner comes up - if Carlyle can figure out how to use him.

Well, It's a Start

There's a post making the rounds in these parts from someone who voted for Rob Ford (henceforth known as Mayor Laughable Bumblefuck - H/T to Cory Doctorow). In it, the author tries to explain his ignorance at the polling station 2 years ago. How he thought Bumblefuck had more achievable goals, and that the stories of his ineptitude HAD to be overblown, because nobody could be that much of a buffoon, right?

Of course, he now realizes how wrong he was.

It's no excuse. You were a fucking moron.

I'm glad you've seen the error of your ways and are looking to make amends. But because of people who couldn't be bothered to spend about 30 seconds THINKING about the idiot who would be Mayor, we've had 2 years of bumbling idiocy from His Worship Bumblefuck.

Seriously, other than the union negotiations, can anybody tell me something productive he's achieved? And I'm not talking about the increase in civic interest because of his floundering.

Anybody with a brain and 5 minutes of time to read should have been able to see that Ford's "plans" were useless. That his promises held no ground in reality. Sure, we all wanted to believe there was tons of "gravy" at City Hall, but a look at the numbers showed that Toronto was pretty efficient as it was, and that the savings that could be found wouldn't amount to enough without severe cuts to services.

That aside, Bumblefuck's unadulterated aggression towards things like realistic transportation, bikes, urban dwellers, environmental causes, Pride, crime prevention over policing, or any sort of personal responsibility, not to mention his racist comments, legal troubles, and general stubbornness and buffoonery should have been red flags that he wasn't the mayor you wanted.

Sure, Smitherman was no peach himself, but was clearly the lesser of two evils. And when you vote for the lesser of two evils... YOU GET LESS EVIL.

The worst kind of voter is the uninformed one. The one who steps behind the box still debating who they'll vote for because they DON'T UNDERSTAND THE POSITIONS OR THE CANDIDATES. I'd rather you had come out and said "I got Rob Ford, I knew he could be a disaster, but I thought he was the better choice because his politics lined up more with my own." I might disagree with you then, but at least you'd come off as someone who gave a damn.  Instead you sound like you flipped a fucking coin because you got tired of hearing aspiring teachers cheer their union. Mayor Laughable Bumblefuck wasn't some unknown. He wasn't Rossi or Thompson. He had been a Councillor for TEN YEARS. His voting record and NUMEROUS public fuck-ups were well known. To say, "...claims about Ford’s ineptitude seemed not just exaggerated, but made up. Could anyone be so wildly unfit?" just says, "I was too lazy to use Google."

I'm glad you learned a lesson. I'm glad you're telling other people it's okay to be ashamed of their terrible choice. But maybe you should also talk about how you could have avoided looking like such an idiot in the first place.

But you ask for clemency. Fine, now that that's off my chest, you have it. You were young and inexperienced. You actually believed a politician and not your own brain. Never make that mistake again. If something sounds like it's so easy it should have already been done, spend at least a few minutes trying to find out why it hasn't. And for whatever being you choose's sake, don't EVER walk into a polling booth still trying to figure out who gets the X.

Pouring Baseballs

Reports are that the Jays have signed Melky Cabrera to a two-year $16-million contract. Not the Cabrera you necessarily want, but maybe not too shabby.

This feels incredibly un-Jays like though. Not the free-spending, that's happened in the past. No, the signing a performance-enhancing drug user. The Jays have generally been seen as a very clean team during their life. Hell, they've barely even had players with attitude problems, let alone cheating ones.

So why Cabrera? Sure, we needed a left fielder to go along with Bautista and Rasmus, as the consensus seems to be Davis is a late-game speed replacement, not an every-day guy (which I find kind of sad, I like him). But there had to be one with less baggage.

If Cabrera can perform with even his Kansas City numbers, then he's well worth it. A switch-hitter who can hit .300? Hell, anyone hitting .300 is a welcome addition to the Jays. If he drops back to inconsistent Atlanta and New York numbers... well, he's just another Jay, and nothing special.

That said, the team is much stronger already, so if he gets buried in the 6-8 spots, it won't exactly hurt the team as long as he can play left worth a damn.

If he puts up numbers like last season, cleanly, then it's the biggest surprise since Bautista got his swing right.

This opens up more trading possibilities. If Davis is happy being a pinch runner and strategic entry, then he stays on the roster. If not, then he's trade bait. Both Moises Sierra and Anthony Gose can stick around in Buffalo (that's just weird) and be called up as needed, although Gose is just about ready to go every day in the bigs.  If Gose achieves that, then Rasmus could be on the trading block.

Arencibia is still definitely trade bait. For a second baseman? Maybe. Talk of Bonifacio vs Maicer Izturis for the spot is there, but if someone better is available, I'm sure Anthopoulos will jump on it. Or who knows? Maybe Scutaro comes back to the Jays fold. That'd be one hell of a capper to an offseason.

Other holes are starting pitching depth, but that's more minor-league transaction-level at this point, and maybe figuring out 1st base. Encarnacion and Lind platooning 1B and DH is the most likely scenario, and that's not a bad situation really.

Oh, and I guess we still need a manager. Shouldn't be too hard to find interested parties now. I wonder how Farrell likes the view in his rear-view mirror now.

Baseball in November

Yesterday the Blue Jays made a huge trade with the Miami Marlins.

12 players.

Just about anybody making money with the Marlins is now a Blue Jay. A whack of prospects, our backup catcher, and our shortstop who wrote a gay slur in his eye black are heading to Florida.

Helluva trade.

I do love how the ESPN guy asked "Where did Toronto get all that money??" Once again displaying the invisibility of this team to the League at large. The Jays are owned by a multi-BILLION dollar telecom/media company that pulls in over $2Bil in profit annually.  They're probably one of the richest ownerships in the Majors, they just don't like spending on a team that pulls in 20,000 fans when the Yankees or Red Sox aren't in town.

Evidently, the lack of Leafs revenue this year has prompted them to look at their other teams. Yes, Rogers owns half the Leafs and Raptors too.

Miami fans are rightly pissed. Jays fans are generally happy, except that most Jays fans are clueless, so some of them don't actually recognize any of the names.  But the sports media will work to change that, since they actually know who Buerhle, Reyes, and Johnson are.

Local media is calling it the second biggest trade in Jays history. The biggest is known to any Jays fans - McGriff and Fernandez  for Carter and Alomar. But if the Jays can pull off a couple World Series wins and three divisional titles, then this one could beat it.

The big names are the scene stealers here obviously, but I'm more interested in John Buck.

Buck signed with the Marlins after his best year ever, with the Jays. Nobody's expecting 20 HR out of the guy this time around, but with Mathis going to the Marlins, Buck is a $6.5 million backup to J.P. Arencibia. Which seems... odd.

Arencibia is history. He's a top-tier catcher who isn't needed here. The fans love him, but Travis d'Arnaud is ready and is as can't-miss as prospects get. So you trade J.P. for a need (everyday left fielder? First baseman if you don't think Lind can handle it? Second base seems the most pressing), and let Buck mentor d'Arnaud in the majors for one season. Then Buck's gone, D'Arnaud is every-daying it, and you find your next cheap backup.

There was some talk of moving Arencibia to 1st, but that just seems unlikely.

But let's look at this team now.

Starting Pitching: Romero, Morrow, Beurhle, Johnson, Happ. That's one solid lineup assuming Ricky's surgery fixed what ailed him last season.  There's Kyle Drabek on the shelf after Tommy John surgery too, so that's a possible mid-season replacement if someone doesn't work out.

Bullpen: Middle relief is decent, and in many places solid. If Oliver decides to come back for one more season, he'll likely be the setup man to Casey Janssen, who OWNED the closer spot when it was thrust upon him last year. He was dominant, and Janssen has been Mr. Consistency for years now.

Infield: Reyes at short, Lawrie at 3rd are your key points. 2nd is unknown, I just don't see Mike McCoy there every day, 1st has Adam Lind, who everyone hopes can show the power he once did. At catcher is Buck, and as I said earlier, likely d'Arnaud. Some holes in the infield, but Arencibia should bring in some filler.

Outfield: Bautista will be back, Rasmus had a decent year in CF, and left is a bit of a question mark. Rajai Davis had spurts of brilliance, and is too fast not to play regularly. Anthony Gose was in RF during Bautista's absence but will likely be looked at in left, and his second time up with the Jays was stellar. Bonifacio could also find himself in the mix here.

So fielding-wise there might be a few weak spots, but the strong spots are pretty damned solid.

Hitting? Reyes is THE leadoff guy. Lawrie behind him, especially if Brett can learn how to run the bases with a bit of smarts. Then Bautista cranking them all home and Encarnacion batting cleanup to protect Bautista. That's one HELL of a top 4.

If they could find a way to have both Gose and Davis in the lineup regularly, you'd have unbelievable speed in your lineup. Sadly, that looks like it would only happen if one was brought in to run late in a game. Lind and Rasmus both have some pop, d'Arnaud was tearing up the minors before being injured last season. That leaves whoever they hell they get for 2nd base to round it out.

Now they just need that 2nd baseman and a manager.

Jays fans are talking today. The team went from an injury-plagued disaster of a promising season to on-paper contenders in one fell swoop. No hoping for the Yankees to falter, or Tampa to have a bad run. For the first time in a long time, the hype is more than hope.

As long as they stay healthy.

The Slow Decline of Apple

There is a thought I've been having since Steve Jobs died -  that the iPhone 5 would be a strong indicator of how Apple's corporate views have changed.

And signs point to where I had feared.

Tim Cook isn't Jobs. He isn't the prodigal son returned.  He lacks a cult of personality and an iron grip on the company. He's no doubt a talented executive, but without being the dictator Jobs reportedly was, the company will revert to a standard corporate structure.

Insular development, eschewing third-party native applications, design by committee, and development based not on quality, but profits.

Jobs seemed to have an understanding of the balance required. Using the iPhone, iPod, and iPad as examples (because laptops and desktops are different beasts), each new generation lacked something. It wasn't something that you needed necessarily, but it was something that would have been nice. Each iteration implied that a direction was being followed. Cries of "why can't it do this?" would fade away, and then the new version would have whatever "this" was. It left the consumer wanting more, but content with what they had.

Because what you had worked well. The touchscreen was responsive, the apps loaded quickly, the experience was seamless. Jobs insisted that "it just work." This was often the reason given for something not being included - "It's not where we want it yet."

And if a number changed in the device from a 3 to 4, or a 1 to a 2, you knew the new one would be envy-worthy.

But the iPhone 5? Meh.

It's taller, thinner, lighter, and it has a different back, and under the hood it's newer and faster. This is called a standard upgrade. There's nothing inspired here. It feels more like "the 4 still looks cool, but we have to do SOMETHING to it for the 5, oh and we have to change the aspect ratio."

But that's only part of it. The maps are getting some wide coverage on how terrible they seem. Bad directions, no streetview, no transit directions, less detailed maps, missing areas, mislabled locations, weird image mapping, etc.. In reality, most of these won't affect people day to day. But it speaks to a slip in quality control. For the sake of not supporting Google apps on their phones, Apple has rushed their own replacement.

This is something that could have been held off until the next iOS upgrade.

And the adapter change reeks of a money grab. It undoubtedly has technological and design benefits, but $30 for an adapter that doesn't actually adapt and won't fit in existing docks? That's exactly the "oh well" sort of thing that loses customers. After all, if I need a new phone and will lose functionality with my stereo either way, then you lose another tether to me. I feel kind of bad for people who integrated docks into their home.

Jobs had a plan. You could see the evolution of the devices as their underlying technology. It was there in how the iPod became a phone which became a tablet which altered the operation of the laptop and had people calling for a television.

Apple now? I fear they'll slowly collapse. Creating devices to compete, instead of creating devices to compete with, will become the norm. Apple has always been behind on specs and tech, but they excelled on taking ideas that had been heretofore poorly implemented and making them accessible and usable. Siri and cloud integration may be the last technologies we see Apple take a lead on. The original phone changed phone design forever. The 4 brought video calling to the masses The 4s brought decent voice interaction and native cloud support. The 5 brings... what? A subpar map replacement, and no native YouTube? An extra row of icons?

Sure, there will always be the fervent followers.  The iPhone 5 is breaking sales records and those sales are living up to the hype even the device isn't.  That doesn't mean it's comparable to the achievements of the past, and I fear it's reinforcement at the beginning of a negative trend.

Under Jobs I was convinced Apple had something up its sleeve. over $100 billion in cash was a strong signal that some big move was coming. My money was on a roll-out of an Apple network. A data-only network without the legacy cell crap.  After all, Facetime is an Internet phone. It's Skype for those who don't know about Skype. Now? I expect the cash will be used to buy up companies with interesting patents and for fighting lawsuits. They've already introduced a dividend instead of investing in the company. In short, there is no grand plan. This is a shame, because love or hate Apple, when it made a move, it changed the board, often to the net benefit of all consumers.

From here on out, I expect the net benefit will be to Apple.

That Bird Has Flown

The Blue Jays 2012 season started full of potential, and was wiped out by injury.

I was at a game a couple weekends ago, and pointed out that only ONE of the starters had been on the opening day roster. In fact, if you added up the RBI count for all the players except Encarnacion, you had less RBIs than he did. Same deal with home runs.  If it wasn't for Rajai Davis, you could probably do the same with at-bats.

The pitcher? J.A. Happ, who we picked up just before the trade deadline.  Oddly enough, my guys won the game in an impressive and entertaining fashion.

We lost 3 starting pitchers within two weeks of each other. None have yet to return.  The starting rotation has been a revolving door of call-ups and relievers in longer roles. There have been some bright spots, but not a single starter has a winning record.

Our closer, who stank, went down early in the season. But lucky us, Casey Janssen turned out to be a hell of a finishing man. It's a shame he doesn't have more games to save.

Our bullpen, even before injuries, had 3 reliable guys in Frasor (currently injured), Oliver (41 years old), and Janssen. That's been improved through trades and call-ups.

The Jays have used more players than any other team in the AL. I think San Diego might beat them in the Majors though.  Toronto's almost definitely near the top in man-games lost.  And as I said, this includes 3/5 of our opening day starting rotation. Leaving one rookie and our ace.  Except Romero obviously can't handle the pressure of being the ONLY experienced starter and being relied on for a win every 5 games. He's performed terribly since the rotation got crushed.

This is a team that was in contention for 1st overall. Then lost that, but was only a few games back of the wild card. That's now long gone too with a 56-65 record, 10 games out of the post-season in any form.

We had the HR leader again in Bautista, now he'd have to go on an epic tear to catch up when he gets back from injury.  Luckily, Encarnacion has done nothing but impress and step up this season, with 31 homers and 82 RBIs and will only look better when more power is back in the lineup.

We have the leader in stolen bases in Rajai Davis, who is practically unstoppable when he gets on base.

Too bad nobody can hit .300, although Lawrie and Encarnacion have come close.

Lawrie, Morrow, and Bautista should all be back this weekend. Which sounds not unlike "unicorns will be farting rainbows across the sky" to Jays fans these days. Lind, Arencibia, and Frasor will hopefully be back by September. Hutchison, Drabek, Santos, McGowan, Litsch, (4 starters and a closer) are all gone for the season.

So let's recap: our 3B, RF, 1B, C, #1 middle-relief, and #2 starter will all be back in the lineup by mid-September. Our 2B, SS and CF JUST got back from less-serious injuries. That's all but 1 position out.

The 2012 season is a write-off. The team needs a mulligan from the fans, and a redo for 2013. The conditioning regimen needs to be seriously looked at, and the coaching staff's methods have to be overhauled. Bad luck is one thing. Losing nearly every single starting player for extended periods of time is unacceptable and a sign of something being rotten in the organization.

And dammit, this team was looking REALLY good. The question marks like Rasmus and Johnson were doing great, Encarnacion has earned every dollar of his contract, Bautista continued to MVP it up, Lawrie was growing into the star he'll be in leaps and bounds, Lind was finally figuring it out, Davis had earned his every day spot, Arencibia was leaving management confused what to do with the mega-prospect D'Arnaud in the minors (now also injured), with no room behind the plate in the bigs for him, Morrow was having a breakout year, Drabek was finally showing maturity, Hutchison and Alvarez were impressing.  Hell, the only hole was in the bullpen, and that could have been fixed if everyone wasn't trying to plug injury hole after injury hole.

I stand by my preseason prediction, this team would have been fighting for the wild card this year. The only bright spot is that they're young enough to put up that fight next year.  Maybe even stronger.  As it is now, with the hope that we do see most of the team healthy, I expect a strong September.  It will be too late, but it should be entertaining.