Played the $5k again last night. Notice a pattern?
Out 82nd I think when this hand happened:
I've got JJ3K, with I think a J and 3 suited.
Flop comes JT2 rainbow.
I bet, get repopped, and I push for 4k more than the 7k bet that's out there.
Bad guy flips over 89QK... double wraparound, yay.
Turn was a blank, river 7 ended it for me.
Any 7,A,8,9,Q, or K would have given him the straight. That's 20 outs, twice.
Lesson learned, Omaha, lesson learned. Today, I hate you a little bit.
Flopped sets never win.
Friday, July 10, 2009
PLO is Scary
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5 comments:
I think I read once you should slow down on the flop with hands like flopped top sets because they are so vulnerable to hands like wraps. Not sure getting it in on the turn would have convinced your opponent to fold but you would have been way further ahead then.
I had the best hand on the flop (barely), and calling would have committed me anyway. No way he's folding for 4k on the turn with 20k in the pot already (we'd scared out a few other players).
And his odds on the turn barely changed.
He was around 49% on the flop, and 47% on the turn (I ran the numbers as soon as I busted).
My only other option is to fold the marginally best hand to his raise and avoid the race, but I couldn't put him on a draw that strong.
Throw in a flush draw on that flop to go along with the big wrap and even flopped top set can be a pretty significant dog in PLO. That's why limit Omaha blows the big one, and pot limit is the only way to play it, so you can give a bad price to most draws to chase against you. But no-limit Omaha sucks too, because then the 20- or 26-out guy on the flop can basically "force" top set to commit all his money as a potentially large dog.
No flush draw on this one, but the 20 outs twice was enough to make it almost a dead-heat coin-flip. And if any of the suits changed, I'm probably behind. I technically made the right move, but I could have folded and waited for a better spot. I hate to get it all in in PLO without either the stone-cold nuts or a strong draw to the nuts to cover my ass.
The other problem with this tournament is that the play is generally horrible. A pot-sized bet on the flop usually means an overpair, set, or weaker draw in this game, all of which I was comfortable going up against.
Generally though, I hate flopped sets in Omaha.
I can't help but feel partially responsible for all of this.
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