Tuesday, July 25, 2006

What Are the Odds?

Take a look at his hand:

PokerStars Game #5638588316: Tournament #28397769, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit -
Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2006/07/22 - 00:49:55 (ET)
Table '28397769 1' 10-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: ditch15 (1430 in chips)
Seat 3: daveddd14 (1300 in chips)
Seat 4: kksnake56 (1490 in chips)
Seat 5: slinger3 (1470 in chips)
Seat 6: ratatosk (1460 in chips)
Seat 7: devboy88 (3920 in chips)
Seat 8: Beezy6661 (1370 in chips)
Seat 9: rockspin (1430 in chips)
Seat 10: Astin (1130 in chips)
rockspin: posts small blind 10
Astin: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Astin [Kc Jd]
ditch15: calls 20
daveddd14: calls 20
kksnake56: calls 20
slinger3: calls 20
ratatosk: folds
devboy88: calls 20
Beezy6661: folds
rockspin: calls 10
Astin: checks
*** FLOP *** [4s Js 7h]
rockspin: checks
Astin: bets 80
ditch15: raises 80 to 160
daveddd14: folds
kksnake56: folds
slinger3: calls 160
devboy88: calls 160
rockspin: calls 160
Astin: calls 80
*** TURN *** [4s Js 7h] [Ks]
rockspin: checks
Astin: bets 470
ditch15: calls 470
slinger3: calls 470
devboy88: calls 470
rockspin: raises 780 to 1250 and is all-in
Astin: calls 480 and is all-in
ditch15: calls 780 and is all-in
slinger3: calls 780
devboy88: calls 780
*** RIVER *** [4s Js 7h Ks] [Jh]
slinger3: bets 40 and is all-in
devboy88: calls 40
*** SHOW DOWN ***
slinger3: shows [Jc Kd] (a full house, Jacks full of Kings)
devboy88: shows [5s 8s] (a flush, King high)
slinger3 collected 80 from side pot-2
rockspin: shows [Qs 6s] (a flush, King high)
ditch15: shows [9s 7s] (a flush, King high)
slinger3 collected 1200 from side pot-1
Astin: shows [Kc Jd] (a full house, Jacks full of Kings)
Astin collected 2845 from main pot
slinger3 collected 2845 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6970 Main pot 5690. Side pot-1 1200. Side pot-2 80. | Rake 0
Board [4s Js 7h Ks Jh]
Seat 2: ditch15 showed [9s 7s] and lost with a flush, King high
Seat 3: daveddd14 folded on the Flop
Seat 4: kksnake56 folded on the Flop
Seat 5: slinger3 showed [Jc Kd] and won (4125) with a full house, Jacks full of
Kings
Seat 6: ratatosk folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: devboy88 showed [5s 8s] and lost with a flush, King high
Seat 8: Beezy6661 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: rockspin (small blind) showed [Qs 6s] and lost with a flush, King high
Seat 10: Astin (big blind) showed [Kc Jd] and won (2845) with a full house,
Jacks full of Kings

----------------

So the rundown:

I'm in the BB, and get dealt KcJd. 2 people fold, everyone else limps. I check.

Flop comes 4s Js 7h. UTG checks, I bet 80, or just over half the pot. Next guy raises to 160... fold, fold.. call, call, call. I call. Pot is now 940. 5 people in the hand.

Turn comes Ks, I now have 2 pair vs a flush draw. UTG checks, I bet 1/2 the pot - 470. I fully expect calls, maybe some raise... but at least a couple folds. Nope. call, call, call, raise to 1250 all-in. I put in my remaining 480, call, call, call. Pot is now 6890, 5 people STILL in the pot, 3 of them all-in.

River comes Jh, I have the full boat! So I know I've got the flush beat. Whew. One guy puts in his last 40, so 4 people all-in. Last guy calls. Pot is 6970.

Show down - Jc Kd (full house - NOT mine), 58s - flush, Q6s - flush, 97s - flush. Guy who had more chips than me and a full boat gets the 1280 side pot. Next comes MY KJo full boat, and we split the main pot with 2845 each. 2 of the all-ins go home, the other 2 win.

What are the odds? 9 of the 13 spades were on the table, 3 kings, and all 4 jacks. 3 flushes, 2 identical full houses. I don't think I've seen a hand like that before.

Here's the pre-flop breakdown:

cards     win   %win    lose  %lose     tie   %tie     EV
Jc Kd 10259 1.21 593482 69.77 246927 29.03 0.156
8s 5s 164151 19.30 683246 80.32 3271 0.38 0.194
Qs 6s 214570 25.22 632827 74.39 3271 0.38 0.253
9s 7s 204502 24.04 642895 75.58 3271 0.38 0.241
Kc Jd 10259 1.21 593482 69.77 246927 29.03 0.156
Post-flop:
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie   %tie     EV
Jc Kd 0 0.00 496 66.94 245 33.06 0.165
8s 5s 111 14.98 630 85.02 0 0.00 0.150
Qs 6s 262 35.36 479 64.64 0 0.00 0.354
9s 7s 123 16.60 618 83.40 0 0.00 0.166
Kc Jd 0 0.00 496 66.94 245 33.06 0.165
After the turn:
cards  win   %win  lose   %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Jc Kd 0 0.00 36 94.74 2 5.26 0.026
8s 5s 0 0.00 38 100.00 0 0.00 0.000
Qs 6s 36 94.74 2 5.26 0 0.00 0.947
9s 7s 0 0.00 38 100.00 0 0.00 0.000
Kc Jd 0 0.00 36 94.74 2 5.26 0.026
And finally, once it's all over but the crying (obviously):
cards  win  %win  lose   %lose  tie    %tie     EV
Jc Kd 0 0.00 0 0.00 1 100.00 0.500
8s 5s 0 0.00 1 100.00 0 0.00 0.000
Qs 6s 0 0.00 1 100.00 0 0.00 0.000
9s 7s 0 0.00 1 100.00 0 0.00 0.000
Kc Jd 0 0.00 0 0.00 1 100.00 0.500
Hey, I'm impressed.


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