Tuesday, September 11, 2007

You're Not Fooling Anybody Full Tilt

Played in the MATH last night, which I think is the first time since last week's Mookie that I've been on Full Tilt. I'm very tempted to limit myself to blogger games there these days. Hoy's talked about, IG's withdrawn her funds, I believe Columbo, Goat and Kat have alluded to it as well. Full Tilt has become the hub for suckouts, bad beats, and statistical anomalies. Is it just variance hitting in a BIG way against bloggers? Just a run of bad luck? Are Tilt's servers running at maximum capacity and it's affecting things? Or is it more conspiracy-laden and are these donkey-loving oddities a result of the school starting up and the site trying to attract and keep all those kids who are on their own for the first time? Were they hacked?

I'm not one to subscribe to the idea of the fix being in, but I think some code-auditing might be in order at Tilt to make sure everything's running as it should be.

Last night in The Hoy was suckout central. This actually isn't very uncommon in our weekly gathering, but after the last few weeks, it was perhaps more obvious. Twice I sucked out with a set on the river (66 vs Bayne's QQ, and 99 vs Cayne's AQ with a Q on the flop), and went out when Hoy's 99 rivered the set against my AK (K on the flop). I know there were others, but those were the ones I saw.

Maybe it's just an increase in donkeys, so while you could normally scare out a hand like QTo with a 4x BB raise pre-flop, you now get some donk who calls out of position and calls you all the way down because the T was on the flop, or they have an inside straight draw and no amount of pot-sized bets will scare them off. Regardless, it's annoying as hell.

So I've been playing on back on Stars more often now. You know what? It's been better. I'm cashing and bubbling SnG's with far fewer bad beats. If I'm losing, most of the time it's due to my own stupidity or a legitimate call catching cards against me. The number of bad beats is totally believable compared to Tilt. I should give Absolute a shot too, that place was always strangely good to me, although there's not a lot of action to be found.

One other thing - quads. Has anybody else (I've noticed a few) seen a jump in how many quads they're getting? I went months without seeing anything, and in the last couple weeks I've gotten quads at least 5 or 6 times, and considering I've played maybe 20-25 games (all SnG) in that time that seems like a high percentage.

Maybe it is just statistical, but damn it's annoying. Besides, 32% of all statistics are made up.


Julius_Goat said...

85% of all made up statistics are made up by less than 1% of the world's population.

I've run bad on Tilt, I've run bad on Stars. Nowhere have I run bad in terms of suckouts than when I've played live.

RaisingCayne said...

Wait, I thought it was 68% of all statistics that were made up.

I'm never one to cry conspiracy, and have always concluded that all sites are completely random. However, your note about quads does have me thinking... I sure have seen a lot of 'em lately. Hmmm. Of course, I'll be the last to complain about Full Tilt, as I think I'm the donkey getting the good side of the variance with massive suckouts and monster flops going my way.

GG at the MATH. Sorry LJ and I got your cardrack! I sure saw an amazing number of premium starting hands.

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

While the notion of these sites actually being fixed seems redonkulous to me, I have to say I have seen way more quads lately than I had previously. I even made a royal flush in the 50-50 last night for crying out loud.

Something is up, I don't know what. It's just not that the site is fixed to hurt the good players and help the donkeys.

Astin said...

Goat - I've generally seen a reasonable number of suckouts live, but seen far more card death there than elsewhere. Which makes sense.

Cayne - GG and congrats. I'll get my rack back soon enough. Then I'll show everyone how to final table bubble with aces.

Hoy - I'm running out of explanations. I don't think they're necessarily fixed either, because if word ever got out, it would destroy the whole industry. But something's strange. Here alone are 3 people who know they've seen a lot of quads. Fuel and Recess have posted a few recently as well. It just feels off.

Dillo said...

Yes, yes and yes.

More suckouts. More donks. More quads.

Another thing I've noticed mate, is consective identical pocket cards. I had pocket tens THREE TIMES IN A ROW the other day. That sounds great until you get J2 off three times in four hands. It's weird. Even down to the same suits at times.

Something is definitely up on FT. And chatting with other players, they're noticing it too.