Tuesday, March 04, 2008

40 Minutes

As expected, the MATH broke 100 last night, with 103 runners. This included Scott Fischman again, but he didn't lucksack his way to a win this time.

I went out in 35th of 103. So essentially the same as The Big Game on Sunday night. The key difference? I only played for about 40 minutes this time. I signed up before heading out for a deliciously filling Ethiopian dinner to celebrate a friend's birthday, and then ended up coming back with a couple buddies to play Guitar Hero. 2 hours later they left and I sat down with 920 chips left at 11:20ish, and sore fingers.

Within a few orbits I was up to over 5k in chips and had knocked out two players.

I went from 62/64 to around top 10 at my peak. With a stack that short (blinds at 80/160), I played a very aggressive short stack game and it got me paid. The short run of TT, 2 crap hands, and then AQ, AQ, KQ obviously helped. I got has high as 8k.

My stack was showing some pretty high variance though, dropping to 4k, up to 6 or 7k, down to 5, etc.. I was acutely aware of my M, pot odds, etc., and the need to play aggressively to stay ahead of the blinds. Then, with around 5.5k, I put out a fairly standard raise of 1100 (150/300/50 blinds) with KQo. Pushmonkey goes all-in for another 2.7k and I do some thinking. I figure there are three possibilities here - a vulnerable pair, absolute crap, or an Ace. I figure I'm racing against a pair and anything lower than AQ is live and worth the odds, and call. He flips over AJo, and I'm around 40%, which turns out to be proper pot odds for my call, but a bit on the marginal side (around 5%). Neither of us improve though, and I'm crippled down to 1600 chips. Somehow I get a walk in my BB a couple hands later and then see JJ in the SB. I naturally push, and Pushmonkey calls me with... AJo again. I sat back and said out loud, "just make it quick." No ace on the flop, but one of the 17 in the deck hit on the turn and I'm done in 35th, just before midnight.

And just like the previous night, as soon as I was gone, the numbers dropped rapidly and the points were hit within minutes. Of course, what I truly want is a win, so folding to the points just ain't going to happen, unless maybe I find myself in a race for the monthly lead at some point.

It'll come. Don't you worry.

Skill game tonight. It's Stud Hi, which should be... interesting. I've barely ever played any stud, so obviously I'll take this down. But with about 10 seconds worth of thought, I'd suggest that this is a game where memory and focus will be even more key than usual. So there will be minimal distractions for me once the game starts.

Being non-NLHE, I imagine the turnout will be smaller than the past couple games, but I could be wrong. I've got a feeling that we'll be looking at around 50 players though, barring a pro or two showing up again.


It's a common refrain to say there are 17 aces in the deck (or 15, or 49, or whatever). Just for fun, let's say you're all-in preflop with an ace vs someone who doesn't have an ace. Cards are flipped, so you know what you both have.

Chance of ONLY one ace hitting the board:

(3/48*45/47*44/46*43/45*42/44)*5 = 26.1%

The breakdown:

3 aces, 48 cards left. Let's say you hit it on the first card. Now you're calculating the odds of a NON-ace hitting from here on out. 45 non-aces of the 47 remaining cards, then 44 of 46, etc..

The ace can hit anywhere, but the odds are the same no matter where it hits. So multiply by 5 (for each street), to get a 26.1% chance of the ace hitting. 26.1% x 52 = 13.57. If you round, that's 14 aces in the deck.

Let's say your Ax is against a non-aces pair.

Chance of ONLY one ace hitting the board, and the pair not hitting a set:

(3/48*43/47*42/46*41/45*40/44)*5 = 21.6%

21.6% * 52 = 11.24. Round up (because this is poker), and there's 12 aces in the deck when you have a pair.

I should contribute a chapter to Stupid/System.

1 comment:

lightning36 said...

Your blinds were the only thing helping me stay in the game after I foolishly chased a Royal Flush draw. Hope to see ya at da Mookie.